"Alvin Toffler, 87; his ‘Future Shock’ provided prescient glimpse forward" by Keith Schneider New York Times June 29, 2016
NEW YORK — Alvin Toffler, the celebrated author of “Future Shock,” the first in a trilogy of best-selling books that presciently forecast how people and institutions of the late 20th century would contend with the immense strains and soaring opportunities of accelerating change, died Monday at his home in Los Angeles. He was 87.
His death was confirmed by his consulting firm, Toffler Associates, based in Reston, Virginia.
Toffler was a self-trained social science scholar and successful freelance magazine writer in the mid-1960s when he decided to spend five years studying the underlying causes of a cultural upheaval that he saw overtaking the United States and other developed countries.
The fruit of his research, “Future Shock” (1970), was published in more than 100 countries, selling millions of copies, and catapulted Toffler to international fame. It is still in print.
In the book, in which he synthesized disparate facts from every corner of the globe, he concluded that the convergence of science, capital and communications was producing such swift change that it was creating an entirely new kind of society.
His predictions about the consequences to culture, the family, government and the economy were remarkably accurate. He foresaw the development of cloning, the popularity and influence of personal computers and the invention of the internet, cable television and telecommuting.
“The roaring current of change,” he said, was producing visible and measurable affects in individuals that fractured marriages, overwhelmed families and caused “confusional breakdowns” manifested in rising crime, drug use and social alienation. He saw these phenomena as very human psychological responses to disorientation and proposed that they were challenging the very structures of communities, institutions and nations.
He continued these themes in two successful follow-up books, “The Third Wave” (1980) and “Powershift” (1990), assisted by his wife, Heidi Toffler, who served as a researcher and editor for the trilogy and was a named co-author in subsequent books. She survives him.
Then he saw the future.
“The Third Wave” was the No. 2 best seller in China.
Toffler popularized the phrase “information overload.”
His warnings could be bleak, cautioning that people and institutions that failed to keep pace with change would face ruin. But he was generally optimistic. He was among the first authors to recognize that knowledge, not labor and raw materials, would become the most important economic resource of advanced societies.
Critics were not sure what to make of Toffler.
In recent years, benefiting from hindsight, some critics said Toffler had gotten much wrong. Shel Israel, an author and commentator who writes about social media for Forbes, took issue with Toffler in 2012 for painting “a picture of people who were isolated and depressed, cut off from human intimacy by a relentless fire hose of messages and data barraging us.”
But, he added: “We are not isolated by it. And when the information overloads us, most people are still wise enough to use the power of the ‘Off’ button to gain some peace.”
Yup. Soon to be hit here.
In writing “Future Shock” 46 years ago, Toffler acknowledged that the future he saw coming might ultimately differ in the details from what actually came to pass.
“No serious futurist deals in ‘predictions,’” he wrote in the book’s introduction. “These are left for television oracles and newspaper astrologers.”
He advised readers to “concern themselves more and more with general theme, rather than detail.” That theme, he emphasized, was that “the rate of change has implications quite apart from, and sometimes more important than, the directions of change.”
"Blasts kill scores in Turkey in sign of worsening instability" by Erin Cunningham Washington Post October 10, 2015
BEIRUT — Two bomb blasts ripped through crowds at a rally of peace activists in the Turkish capital Saturday, killing at least 95 people and wounding 248, in a reminder of the growing conflicts Turkey faces both at home and across the border in war-torn Syria.
The explosions in Ankara, which occurred just minutes and yards apart, were set off as people gathered to call for an end to the violence that has flared between Turkish security forces and Kurdish separatists in recent months.
The renewal of the decades-old conflict between Turkey and the Kurds has left more than 150 police and soldiers and hundreds of militants dead since this summer. Ethnic Kurds have also accused Turkish authorities of failing to protect them from what they say is violent spillover from Syria’s civil war.
In July, a suicide bombing targeting another rally of Kurdish peace activists in the town of Suruc killed 33 people and was blamed on the Islamic State. Turkey then joined the US-led coalition carrying out strikes on the jihadists inside Syria and was braced for potential retaliation from the extremists. Turkey hosts more than 2 million refugees from Syria, which the government says is a major source of political instability.
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Saturday there were “strong indications” the attack was carried out by suicide bombers, although there was no immediate claim of responsibility. He said the target was Turkish unity, democracy, and stability.
“Early indicators would point to ISIS as the culprit,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. ISIS is a common acronym for the Islamic State.
WINEP is the acronym for a Zionist War Lobby.
Either way, “this could well be Turkey’s 9/11,” Cagaptay said. “This is simply the worst terror attack in Turkish history.”
Or not after Istanbul, but rather than unite them....
Ankara bombings mark polarization across Turkey
At the end of everything.
The United States also condemned the twin bombings as a terrorist attack. “It is particularly important at this time that all Turkish citizens recommit to peace and stand together against terror,” the State Department said.
The demonstrators, mobilized by a coalition of Turkish trade unions, had gathered outside Ankara’s main station hours earlier to chant, wave banners and flags, and call for peace. The crowd included a mix of Kurdish and leftist Turkish activists, local media reports said.
A video circulated on social media showed demonstrators linking arms to perform a traditional dance before a fiery explosion erupted in the background, sending the crowd into a panic. Tensions between police and demonstrators flared following the explosions, after activists accused security forces of blocking ambulances arriving to treat the injured. Turkey’s pro-democracy activists say they are fed up with a state that is quick to crack down on dissenters but cannot keep its own citizens safe from terrorists.
In a live television broadcast, Turkish Interior Minister Selami Altinok said in response to a reporter’s question that he would not resign because there had been no security breach. Still, Turkish authorities announced a news blackout.
Related: Turkish leader suggests Syrian link to suicide bombings;
He admitted to lapses in security during the attack at rally, so they shut down the press.
Turkey, which media watchdog groups say has one of the world’s worst records on press freedom, often blocks access to Twitter and other sites for content the government deems inappropriate.
Also Saturday, the militant Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, a hard-line Marxist organization that has led the fight for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey, called a temporary cease-fire to calm tensions ahead of general elections scheduled for Nov. 1.
The PKK has been locked in a struggle with the Turkish state for three decades to win more rights — and possibly independence — for Turkey’s more than 16 million Kurds.
Kurdish communities also live in areas of Iran, Iraq, and Syria, where PKK-linked militias have carved out territory and taken on the Islamic State. Some observers say the success of the Syrian-Kurdish militias in seizing land in Syria has worried Turkish officials, who fear it could inspire its own Kurdish minority.
In 2013, the PKK had agreed to withdraw its fighters from Turkish territory to militant hideouts in northern Iraq in exchange for expanded constitutional rights for Kurds. But each side soon accused the other of failing to implement the accords, and violence flared again this summer.
PKK militants attacked Turkish troops and security installations, particularly in the country’s volatile southeast. Turkey launched an air campaign against PKK positions in northern Iraq, killing scores, the militants said.
“I think with the attack [Saturday], the perpetrators are hoping to induce the PKK, or its rogue and more radical youth elements, to continue fighting Turkey,” Cagaptay said.
So smells like a false flag.
So despite the attempts to form a coalition to break the impasse, new elections had to be called:
"The election is a redo of June elections in which the ruling Justice and Development Party, known by the acronym AKP, stunningly lost its majority. The ballot comes at a sensitive time for Turkey, a key Western ally that has major issues to navigate, including rising instability in neighboring Syria and Iraq and a refugee crisis that is spilling into Europe. There are also doubts about the country’s once-booming economy.... In divided Turkey, election unlikely to resolve uncertainty"
Except the rigged vote did just that in a stunning landslide! Had the people behind him!
Turkey’s president seeks to silence critics at home and abroad
2 ministers quit Turkish government amid heightened tension
Relations have soured amid renewed violence between Kurdish rebels and Turkey’s military.
Turkey’s prime minister announces resignation
Erdogan loyalist nominated to be Turkey’s prime minister
"Binali Yildirim, the transportation and communications minister and a founding member of the ruling party, was tapped to replace Ahmet Davutoglu, who stepped down amid growing differences with Erdogan, including his wish to overhaul the constitution to give the largely ceremonial presidency executive powers. Yildirim has said he would work to legalize the ‘‘de facto’’ presidential system by introducing a new constitution to that effect."
They used to call that a dictatorship, and with citizenship being stripped from Kurds, Turkey is entering a period of darkness.
Soldiers died in a series of deadly attacks as forces clashed. Turks rallied against the Kurds and dozens died. At least 7, anyway, as civilians were caught in the crossfire and surrounded by tear gas before fleeing for home -- where Turkish authorities have reduced many Kurdish cities to rubble.
The car bomb attack came two days after the US Embassy issued a security warning about a potential plot to attack Turkish government buildings and housing. It targeted Turkey's riot police, and "a Kurdish rebel suicide bomber detonated an explosives-laden vehicle outside a police headquarters near Turkey’s border with Syria Wednesday, killing four other people, according to Turkish officials. The Interior Ministry official said authorities had strong evidence indicating that the outlawed rebel Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, had carried out both Tuesday’s attack in Istanbul and the Wednesday bombing in Mardin."
A Kurdish lawyer was also killed in the explosion that killed at least 28 and wounded 61. A Kurdish group claimed responsibility for the attack, but Turkey blamed the U.S. and attacked Kurdish bases before prayers.
Then the Turkish military wheeled south:
"In a separate development Sunday, the United States said it will withdraw its Patriot missile defense system deployed near Turkey’s border with Syria when its mandate expires in October. Because the border area in Syria is occupied by the Islamic State, there is now less of a threat of Syrian military shells landing in the country. A joint Turkish and US announcement said units could be returned to Turkey within a week if the need arises. It said US Navy ships would be present in the Mediterranean to support Turkey’s defense."
They haven't even removed them yet.
Rights group claims Turkish border guards killed 5 refugees
Witness to migrant disaster that killed 37 describes horror of final moments
Turkey under pressure as Syrians mass at border
I wouldn't head for Iraq, either.
"Turkey has launched its first wave of airstrikes as part of the US-led coalition to fight the Islamic State, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement Saturday. Turkish fighter jets carried out joint operations late Friday against Islamic State targets in Syria, which posed a threat to Turkey’s national security, the statement said. Islamic State militants gained control of five villages in northern Syria on Thursday and advanced toward the Turkish border, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group."
It's a de facto ‘no fly zone’.
Turkey and US bomb ISIL positions inside Syria
That's a violation of international law.
Turkey claims success against Islamic State cell
That excuses everything.
So what's next for Turkey, a ground operation in northern Syria or war against China?