Little late to be picking out gifts, isn't it?
Related: Cyber Wednesday
It was the last time I went shopping.
"US stocks fell Monday as the price of oil dropped steeply and energy stocks and shares of drillers trended downward. One small silver lining, analysts told the Associated Press, is that a low price of oil means drivers are saving when they fill their cars’ gas tanks, which could lead to more people driving to stores this season for holiday shopping."
Or not:
"Police were studying mall surveillance video Tuesday in their investigation of the fatal shooting of a 16-year-old Ohio boy who authorities say tried to rob a shopper of his newly purchased limited-edition athletic shoes. Police said the two groups — the three teens and the two men — did not know each other, but had all had gone to the mall south of Dayton for Nike Air Jordan sales. Police Chief Ronald Hess said Tuesday that stores had set up systems to avoid long, tense lines that have led to problems elsewhere when the popular brand has released new versions, and the three teens apparently missed out. Police said Jawaad Jabbar of Middletown displayed a gun and demanded their merchandise, then one man pulled out his gun and shot him."
And that citizen will be charged with murder. You have to let the criminals invade your home or steal from you.
"Happy days are here again
WASHINGTON — The US economy, helped by a stronger job market and falling oil prices, should enjoy the fastest economic growth in a decade next year, according to a panel of top business economists. The National Association for Business Economics said Monday it expects the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, to expand by 3.1 percent next year. That would be the strongest GDP growth since 2005 when the economy grew 3.3 percent. The government reported Friday that the economy created 321,000 jobs in November, the most in nearly three years. With just one month to go, the country is on track to see the largest annual gain in jobs since 1999. More people working means more incomes and higher consumer spending."
"Economy appears ready for liftoff
The US economy is on track to create the most jobs since the dot-com era of 1999 following a burst of hiring in November, the Labor Department reported. Employers added 321,000 jobs — the biggest monthly gain in about three years — as what has been a steadily expanding economy seemed ready to accelerate. The nation has added an average of 241,000 jobs a month in 2014, which would be the most in 15 years. There was more good news for workers, too: average wages experienced the biggest monthly jump in 17 months as a result of increasing demand for labor. The unemployment rate held at a six-year low of 5.8 percent.
Must be why we are so tired:
"Early discounting, online shopping, and a mixed economy meant fewer people shopped over Thanksgiving weekend, the National Retail Federation reported. Overall, 133.7 million people shopped in stores and online over the four-day weekend, down 5.2 percent from last year, according the trade group. Part of the reason is major retailers pushed fat discounts as early as Halloween and opened stores on Thanksgiving, stealing thunder from Black Friday."
"Retail sales boost businesses" by Neil Irwin, New York Times December 12, 2014
NEW YORK — The US economy is firing on all cylinders as the year comes to a close.
That’s the only conclusion that can be drawn from a blockbuster report on November retail sales released Thursday, particularly when coupled with other recent readings on jobs, industrial activity, and more.
Total retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November, as holiday shopping began, and that came despite a sharp tumble in gasoline prices that reduced the dollar value of sales at gas stations by 0.8 percent. Analysts had expected a rise of only 0.4 percent.
Read narrowly, the results show that some survey data suggesting weak post-Thanksgiving Black Friday sales were misleading at best; retail trade groups said at the time that they believed consumers spread their spending more evenly through November than they have in the past, and that appears to hold up.
OMG, everything we were told was wrong, but believe them now!!???
And what was the worst of it, straight-out lying?
But more broadly, it’s worth stepping back and considering just how rosy the recent readings on the economy are.
The November retail sales number could well be a fluke. But only 11 days into December, here is a partial list of readings on the economy that have handily beat already-strong analyst forecasts: One explanation might have been that the economic picture is less sunny than it seemed and that the bad tidings from the oil and bond markets were operating as an early warning system for some simmering weakness. But the recent data since then suggest the answer is a resounding “No.”
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As you read these next items just remember how much the bankers and their pre$$ love you:
"Economic recovery starts gaining steam" by Jay Fitzgerald, Globe Correspondent December 14, 2014
It’s getting harder to miss America’s increasingly strong economic signals. Wages are finally starting to rise substantially, and the expansion has entered a new phase.
These might not be boom days. But the economy is definitely strong now — and getting stronger.
It “seems to have entered a new stage in recent months and is finally off and running. Obviously, there are still problems and risks out there. But....”
US stock markets have more than recovered from the brutal beatings they took in 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for instance, was hovering around 17,500 last week, up from a low of about 8,400 in 2009 and well above its pre-recession high of about 13,930 in 2007.
Yeah, it was the poor stock market that took a brutal beating back when.
The federal government’s annual budget deficit, the subject of much political debate and controversy in recent years, also fell to about $483 billion as of the third quarter. That was its lowest level since 2008 and represented the sharpest turnaround in the government’s fiscal position in 46 years, according to Bloomberg News.
But the economy still faces serious problems and challenges. About 7 million workers who want full-time jobs are still involuntarily stuck in part-time positions, often without health care insurance and other benefits.
The so called “U6” unemployment rate — which measures people without work, those in involuntary part-time positions, and discouraged workers who have recently given up on finding jobs — stands at just under 12 percent, a historically high figure compared with past recoveries, economists noted.
In addition, the nation’s housing market hasn’t fully recovered, despite historically low mortgage rates. Median home prices are still about 10 percent below their prerecession highs, meaning many Americans are living in homes that aren’t worth the price they paid last decade.
Significantly, new home-construction starts have recently risen to an annualized 1 million, up from only 500,000 housing starts in 2009. But that’s still down from 1.7 million housing starts during typical economic recoveries, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, a research subsidiary of the rating agency Moody’s Corp.
Joseph Brusuelas, a New York economist at the consulting firm McGladrey LLP, said he’s impressed with the current economy, considering the severity of the recent recession and the lingering aftershocks of last decade’s housing market and financial crashes.
“There are reasons to be optimistic,” he said, noting the US economy is currently outperforming the economies of other industrial nations.
He predicts more growth next year but notes the economy still struggles in some key areas.
“It’s lagging compared to past recoveries,” he said. “Still, compared to where we were a few years ago, it’s definitely improved. Definitely.”
Oh, a double definitely. We all mu$t really need convincing then! Can't doubt double definitely in the propaganda pre$$.
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Related: Retail customers setting trends in age of e-commerce
"She is the queen of an elite — and very secretive — club that wields huge influence over the nation’s shopping habits."
Can I pay by app?
"Americans’ wealth slips in 3d quarter" by Christopher S. Rugaber, Associated Press December 12, 2014
WASHINGTON — Americans’ net worth slipped in the July-September quarter as shrinking stock portfolios overwhelmed a solid gain in home values.
What?
US household wealth declined 0.2 percent in the third quarter to $81.3 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. Americans’ stock and mutual fund portfolios shrank $700 billion. The value of their homes increased $245 billion.
The slight drop comes after Americans’ wealth rose to a record in the April-June quarter. A booming stock market and a rebound in home values have enabled the nation’s net worth to rebound from the Great Recession and reach new highs.
Yet other data show that those gains have mostly benefited wealthier households, while leaving middle-class wealth largely unchanged.
Still, last quarter’s increase in home values could help boost spending in the months ahead. Rising home prices can make people feel more financially secure and more willing to spend. This ‘‘wealth effect’’ could boost growth.
The Fed’s figures aren’t adjusted for population growth or inflation. Household wealth, or net worth, reflects the value of homes, stocks and other assets minus mortgages, credit cards, and other debts.
The fall in stock portfolios occurred even though the broad S&P 500 stock index crept upward 0.6 percent during the quarter. But there was significant volatility in August and September amid fears of slowing global growth. Stock prices plunged then recovered to reach new highs. The S&P 500 index has increased 9.6 percent this year.
The volatility likely prompted many Americans to dump some of their stock holdings.
What stock holdings? Most of those are in the hands of the 1% these days.
During the recession, net worth plummeted, tumbling to $54.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2009 from a pre-recession peak of $67.9 trillion.
The gains since then haven’t been equally distributed.
The typical US household saw its net worth actually decline 1.2 percent from 2010 to 2013, according to new research published this week.
And they called it a recovery!
***********
The small decrease from 2010 to 2013 occurred despite big run-ups in stock and home prices over that period. So why haven’t middle-class households benefited more?
Edward Wolff, an economics professor at New York University, cites two factors. First, middle-income households rely much more than wealthier households on the value of their homes. Houses account for nearly 63 percent of middle-class assets, Wolff said in a paper released Monday. That compares to just 9 percent for the wealthiest 1 percent.
Meanwhile, most stock market wealth is held by the top 10 percent of households, which owns 80 percent of stocks. Only 9.5 percent of middle-class assets are in stocks.
The second reason, Wolff says, is that stagnating incomes likely forced many middle-income earners to sell assets and use the cash to cut their debt levels and maintain consumption. Median household income slipped, middle-class households are now less likely to own homes, and retirement savings have suffered even more....
Growing stock market made wealthy even richer while the rest got $crewed? WTF?
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"The top 400 households got 16 percent of all capital gains in 2010" by Matt O’Brien, Washington Post November 26, 2014
WASHINGTON — In 2010, the IRS reports, the top 400 households — or the top 0.0003 percent, for those of you keeping score at home — took home 16 percent of all capital gains.
That’s right: One out of every six dollars Americans made selling stocks, bonds, and real estate (worth more than $500,000) went to the top third of the top-thousandth percent of households.
It wasn’t always this way.
**********
What has changed?
The housing bust happened, the middle class got scared off stocks at the worst possible time, and the top 1 percent have more money to invest than at any other time since 1939. Add it all up, and you can see why capital gains have become the ultimate luxury good.
Here’s what all that means. In 2005, the housing bubble was in full swing and there were plenty of Miami condos, let alone actual houses, selling for more than the $500,000 capital gains exclusion on real estate. (The first half-a-million in profit is exempt from taxes).
So, in other words, so many McMansions were being sold that the ultra-rich’s share of capital gains fell a bit.
But then the word ‘‘subprime’’ entered the vernacular, and both housing prices and sales fell off a cliff, with no substantial recovery since.
Worse, as Josh Zumbrun points out in The Wall Street Journal, everyone but the top 10 percent couldn’t afford to or couldn’t stomach hanging on to their stocks as the markets tanked in 2008.
That’s why the subsequent bull market — and it’s been a historic one — has been even more of a black-tie affair than usual.
Hmmmmm!
The whole $y$tem is designed to con$olidate wealth at the top!
And after 30 years of skyrocketing income inequality, the top 1 percent now control a bigger share of wealth than they have since FDR was railing against the ‘‘malefactors of great wealth’’ of his time.
The more money you have, after all, the more money you have to invest.
Not only are the rich getting richer — because they’re getting more of their money from capital gains, they’re getting taxed less, too. The top tax rate is 39.6 percent on ordinary income, but it’s 23.8 percent on capital gains, and it was 15 percent in 2010. That’s why the top 400 households paid an effective rate of 18 percent then.
This as social services get cut!
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"Dow closes above 18,000 for first time" by Alex Veiga, Associated Press December 23, 2014
NEW YORK — In a year full of market milestones, Wall Street crushed a couple more Tuesday, lifting the Dow Jones industrial average past the 18,000-point mark for the first time and delivering the Standard & Poor’s 500 index its second record-high close in two days.
Investors welcomed the latest encouraging news on the US economy as the government said it grew in the third quarter at the fastest pace in more than a decade. The economic report card raised expectations for greater demand for fuel, driving oil prices higher as well as energy stocks, which have been beaten down this year by the sharp decline in the price of crude.
**********
The stock market rally gave the Dow and the S&P 500 their fifth straight gain. The indexes have recovered the last of the ground they lost in a slump early this month. It also marked the 51st all-time high for the S&P 500 and the 36th for the Dow this year, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
‘‘This is going to end up being a bit better of a year for stocks and bonds than most people thought coming in,’’ said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management. ‘‘The economy caught some steam and it’s able to stand up with its own two feet.’’
While the US has been gaining momentum, Europe is struggling to grow, Japan has slid into recession, and China is straining to manage a slowdown. Russia envisions a recession next year.
Overseas market indexes are lagging Wall Street’s. Despite weak growth overseas and geopolitical troubles, investors have repeatedly bet on the US economy and corporate earnings growth this year, pushing stock prices higher.
It's a $elf-$erving circle of a cycle.
The market has been going steadily higher for the last two weeks after hitting a recent low of 17,069 on Dec. 16, as traders worried about plunging oil prices and a sharp drop in Russia’s currency. Investors have been encouraged by signs of strength in the US economy and reassurances that the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates soon. Those trends bode well for the bull market run, which is on track to mark its sixth year in March.
The new heights for the indexes have made stocks more expensive. Even so, stocks are not overvalued, said Cameron Hinds, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Private Bank.
‘‘You have to understand that US economic output is at an all-time high and corporate profits are at an all-time high,’’ Hinds said. ‘‘Bull markets typically don’t die purely of old age, they tend to die of recessions and overvaluation and perhaps policy mistakes, and we don’t see any of those on the horizon.’’
They never do, and we understand completely.
"On a day when the Dow rose above 18,000 points for the first time, rapid gross domestic product growth raised confidence in the economy and helped block out declines in other areas."
Yeah, why ruin Christmas?
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I'm $ure you will be getting your cut soon, slave:
"Economists see wage gains ahead" by Nelson D. Schwartz, New York Times December 16, 2014
NEW YORK — For years, even as the economy recovered and the stock market soared, most US workers saw little evidence of better times in their paychecks.
But last month’s surprisingly large increase in both average hourly and weekly earnings, along with other encouraging data, have convinced many economists that falling unemployment and increased hiring are finally about to start paying off in terms of wage gains for a broader swath of workers.
Related:
"Chief executives at the largest US companies expect sales to keep growing in the next six months and also plan to step up hiring. The findings suggest that slowing growth overseas hasn’t caused large corporations to pull back on their hiring plans. That bodes well for the government’s report on November job gains, to be released Friday. Still...."
They have been saying for six years already.
Still, even the seemingly good news for wages in November wasn’t clear-cut.
It never is in my bu$ine$$ propaganda $heet!
Just how much the typical employee’s pay might go up in the months ahead — and whether most workers will see significant gains or just a select few — is a key question in the economic debate facing Wall Street, academia, officials in the Obama administration and, especially, the Federal Reserve.
Their concerns are how they can keep this $y$tem that enriches them going.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed policy makers will hold their final meeting of the year, followed by a news conference from Janet L. Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, where she is expected to provide further hints about when the Fed will begin raising short-term interest rates after keeping them near zero for the last six years.
Never say a word of it after that.
The nascent uptick in wages has prompted further warnings from the more hawkish members of the Fed’s policy making council who want the central bank to start tightening monetary policy sooner, rather than later, to ward off what they see as a potential threat of inflation.
But Yellen and a majority of Fed policy makers, pointing to evidence that inflation remains well under the central bank’s 2 percent target, do not appear to be unduly alarmed and probably still prefer to leave interest rates as low as possible until the trend is better established....
The split at the Fed is echoed in Washington, primarily along partisan lines.
Pffffffffft!!
See: Last Lame Duck Se$$ion
Related: Democrats best at tapping rich for political cash
And they still lost!
On Capitol Hill, some Republicans say it is time for the Fed to act, while Democrats in the Obama administration, like Labor Secretary Thomas E. Perez, say there is no rush. “I welcome the point when my first concern when I get out of bed in the morning is having to address rapid wage growth,” Perez said. “I’m not too worried about inflation. The folks at the top end have been doing great, and our prosperity hasn’t been shared.”
And with every second, minute, hour, day.....
By contrast, Representative Kevin P. Brady, Republican of Texas, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, has called on the Fed to move quickly, but even some conservative economists say the plunge in energy prices gives the central bank more flexibility this time around, and if wages keep rising, the typical family will have a couple of thousand more dollars to spend in 2015.
Related:
"It was a good week for people who want to settle down and those who want to get away. Average US mortgage rates fell for the fourth straight week, slipping to 3.89 percent, the lowest level since May 2013, mortgage company Freddie Mac reported. Gasoline prices, meanwhile, continued their plunge. In Massachusetts, the average gas price fell to $2.85 a gallon, down 85 cents since the summer, according to AAA Southern New England. Nationally, AAA estimates, consumers are saving $250 million a day on fuel, compared with June."
Also see: OPEC Meeting
"Natural gas, the nation’s most prevalent heating fuel, is getting cheaper just as winter is arriving because of mild temperatures and plentiful supplies. The price has dropped 29 percent in a month, to $3.17 per 1,000 cubic feet — a steep drop even for a fuel notorious for volatile prices. The lower prices could also reduce electricity bills: Natural gas is used to generate 26 percent of the nation’s electricity, as well as to heat half of all households. New England, for the most part, is not benefiting from the national price declines; pipeline constraints limit the region’s natural gas supply. In recent years, those limits have led to winter price spikes.... A long-awaited study commissioned by Governor Deval Patrick’s administration to examine Massachusetts’ energy needs for the next several decades has been delayed at least a week. The Massachusetts Low-Demand Analysis was commissioned by the Department of Energy Resources after environmental groups said an existing report did not give enough weight to alternative energy, like wind and solar power. Synapse Energy, the Cambridge consultancy conducting the study, has said its report would not include policy proposals. The state’s electricity sector has become increasingly dependent on natural gas-driven power plants. But the region’s growing reliance on natural gas has strained supplies, and limited natural gas pipeline capacity has led to winter price spikes.... Frank Callahan, who leads the Massachusetts Building Trades Council, said his group would be lobbying authorities to approve the pipeline. He also spoke out against what he called alarmism among protesters. Previous proposals drew widespread criticism in Western Massachusetts, and many local groups and environmentalists still oppose the project because they say it would increase the region’s reliance on natural gas."
What a zapping, huh?
Professionals on the front lines of the labor market say higher-paid, better-educated workers with specialized skills are still getting the greater share of raises right now.
Along with bankers and the CEO cla$$.
“What people want to see is 1999 or 2004, when companies were saying, ‘We’ll hire anyone,’ ” said Tom Gimbel, chief executive of LaSalle Network, a Chicago staffing firm. “That’s not what’s happening now.”
Military is.
Instead, Gimbel said, salaries are rising in sectors in which experienced workers are harder to find, like technology, finance and higher-level accounting positions, and where salaries tend to be at least $80,000 or more.
For recent college graduates with liberal arts degrees, or workers in call centers and in data processing jobs, where yearly wages are less than $50,000, Gimbel said, “we’re bringing people in at the same salary as 10 years ago.”
Gimbel added that new college graduates were still willing to take jobs they might have rejected in the past, like working in a call center.
“They figure, “The sooner I get a job, the quicker I can start paying off a mountain of student debt,’” he said. “And for guys working as a lifeguard or in the gym, a call center is white-collar experience.”
Good to $ee you kids have your priorities in order, and have yourselves a healthy little Christmas.
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Also see: More-confident US households step up borrowing
Couldn't find the Globe ATM, so I guess it's time to start thinking about heading home:
"For many, leaving town is only option to escape wealth gap" by Tammy Webber | Associated Press November 11, 2014
DANVILLE, Ill. — This city already was struggling when Tara Holycross and her friends were kids riding their bikes to Custard Cup and hanging out in the Wendy’s parking lot.
Manufacturers that provided thousands of well-paying, middle-class jobs — General Motors, General Electric, Hyster — were closing. Neighborhoods were crumbling. By the time that Holycross graduated from high school in 2004, a city known for its massive grain elevator was scrambling to create new opportunities.
Ten years later, Danville, population 32,500, is still struggling. But Holycross and some of her classmates are doing just fine — because they moved.
They’re living all over the country — places like Chicago, Charleston, S.C., and Boulder, Colo. — with solid jobs that reward the kind of education they have.
********
Their experience is a counterpoint to the desperation gripping so many rural and manufacturing communities in the Midwest hard hit by global economic changes.
Yet the flow of educated workers from struggling communities to areas with brighter opportunities might, to some extent, help shore up the middle class, which has been squeezed by a widening gap between the richest Americans and everyone else.
Since roughly 1980, income has grown most for the top earners and dropped for the poorest 20 percent. Incomes for the highest-earning 1 percent of Americans soared 31 percent from 2009 through 2012, after adjusting for inflation, according to data compiled by Emmanuel Saez, a University of California economist. For everyone else, it barely budged.
Waves of people fell out of the middle class as manufacturing’s share of the economy shrank. Following the downside arc of the wealth gap was inevitable for many who stayed in stricken factory towns. For others, though, escaping meant separating their own fate from that of their hometowns.
********
The trend of more-educated people moving and less-educated staying began to emerge several years ago. Decades ago, unskilled workers were able to migrate to better conditions elsewhere. But good blue-collar jobs are now harder to find anywhere....
$ick of the excu$es, yet?
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Related: Why areas with good jobs have hard-to-afford homes
I can see the family home now looming in the headlights:
"Some Americans will soon be able to buy a home with a down payment as low as 3 percent, compared with the current minimum of 5 percent, the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac say. The new lending guidelines announced by the companies Monday are designed to help more low-income and first-time buyers afford homes. Millions of Americans lost their savings or no longer had the income needed to set aside money for a home in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession. That has held down home sales and slowed the economic recovery."
In other words, they are going back to the same behavior that led to the meltdown six years ago.
Related: Survey finds acute homelessness in Boston
As assistance budgets shrink?
How can that be in the $100 BILLION city?
A very strange housing recovery in Mass.
"Still, other indicators show that rising builder optimism has not necessarily been paired with a significant improvement in sales. ‘‘There remains a big disconnect between what homebuilders are saying and what they are actually doing,’’ said Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at the forecasting firm MFR."
No kidding?
Newly built homes and schools boosted US construction spending in October to the highest level since May.
Mass. home sales rise in October
Mass. home sales, prices up slightly in November
Whatever.
