"Like real-time polls, social media can track politicians; New form of data sees flash trends about candidates" by Shira Schoenberg | Globe Staff, February 16, 2012
Days before the South Carolina presidential primary, Mitt Romney boasted more than 1.3 million Facebook fans and a fast-growing fan base. Four days later, Romney lost the primary by a 12-point margin to Newt Gingrich, former House speaker.
After the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary, Richard Hartman, cofounder of OhMyGov, a company that provides software to political organizations to track online media, used Facebook statistics to find that Gingrich’s momentum started building Jan. 17, the day after his strong performance in a debate. Traditional polls found the same trend.
“What we were trying to prove was that it’s the same as polling data,’’ said Andrew Einhorn, chief executive and cofounder of OhMyGov. “This can be augmented or a substitute for polling. It can be done in real time.’’
Researchers at OhMyGov released a study in December that found a strong statistical correlation between candidates’ numbers of Facebook fans and their polling numbers.
Really?
See: Most of Newt Gingrich’s Twitter Followers Are Fake
Related:
"Leaked emails from data security firm HBGary show the federal government is offering private intelligence companies contracts to create software to manage “fake people” on social media sites, possibly to manipulate public opinion or create the illusion of consensus on controversial issues."
Newspapers no longer getting it done, huh?
Christopher Hull, who taught politics at Georgetown University and now runs a website that facilitates advocacy through social media, said there is little novel about the idea that, for example, more people search for information about a candidate after that candidate wins an election. But he said that as traditional polling is hurt by a drop in the number of people with land lines who are willing to answer pollsters’ questions, there is value in tracking online “likes’’ and Tweets.
“To some extent, what we’re seeing in online data is the real-time tracking of processes that we knew were going on but couldn’t see before,’’ Hull said.
Then you weren't been looking.
As with any new technology, questions remain as to how useful the data will be....
Meaning the MSM will adjudicate what is meaningful, pffft.
And them they turn around and rip Ron Paul for his internet following.
Does chatter even matter? Politico and Facebook teamed up to track the buzz surrounding the presidential candidates in advance of the South Carolina primary. Facebook measured the number of mentions of each candidate and whether they were positive or negative.
A Politico story published the day before the South Carolina primary said chatter about Representative Ron Paul of Texas spiked in the days after the Jan. 16 South Carolina debate, while Gingrich was a distant third. Nearly half the comments about Gingrich were negative. But that did not stop him from winning.
Oh, the narrative didn't work for Ron Paul, huh? That must be the exception to the rule, pfffft.
At the same time, Facebook chatter about Rick Santorum, former senator from Pennsylvania, surged after his win in the Iowa caucuses but dropped in the days before the New Hampshire primary, predicting correctly that Romney faced no threat from Santorum in New Hampshire....
Pfffft!
The nation’s top technology companies are buying into the idea. Google’s Insights for Search tracks Internet searches by geographic region. Samantha Smith and Ginny Hunt of Google wrote in an e-mail that the tool is useful for tracking voter interest, for allowing campaigns to follow geographic trends, and for letting political scientists and voters understand national, international, and local interest in topics.
For example, in past years, searches for “unemployment’’ and “abortion’’ were roughly equal in Iowa. Since late 2008, searches for “unemployment’’ spiked well above “abortion.’’
Daniel Burrus, chief executive of Burrus Research, a technology consulting firm, said new technology makes it more important for candidates to use all social media, rather than focusing on one or two sites.
He said it gives politicians the tools to sense, for example, real-time reactions to a debate. “Instead of normal polls, it gives you additional data to see the overall sentiment of millions of people on a daily basis,’’ Burrus said.
But are they real?
What does this all mean for the GOP race? As of Sunday, if Twitter is right, Romney holds a razor-thin lead over Rick Santorum, as Newt Gingrich drops precipitously.
If Facebook is correct, Romney is also still ahead, but Santorum’s popularity is growing quickly.
Then Santorum to win in Michigan according to script.
--more--"
Globe ought to be blushing in embarrassment.
