Thursday, December 27, 2018

Into the Wild Blue Yonder

"Santa Claus has come to town, and to your mall, and to your phone, computer, tablet, and e-mail. It’s too soon to fully capture holiday retail sales through the end of the year, but a wave of post-Christmas data puts the industry on track to meet record-breaking expectations. Amazon reported record-breaking sales of its own, and lest you think Amazon tracked only your package and shipping data, think again....."

Alexa tells you it is the be$t Chri$tma$ ‘‘since 1999’’ -- and it is all going to be returned:

"Big data’s gift to retailers won’t be returned" by Sarah Halzack Bloomberg  December 27, 2018

There are a number of problems that retail executives don’t much like discussing, but you’d be hard-pressed to think of one they’re more tight-lipped about than their rate of merchandise returns.

Our post-holiday gifting hangover tends to be a peak time for returns, exacerbating a problem that’s grown more vexing for retailers with the rise of e-commerce: People often order a ton of stuff with the intention of keeping just one or two items, and retailers frequently foot the bill for the return shipping, crimping the profitability of the order. Apparel gifts, in particular, are often coming back through retailers’ doors at this time of year.

Return rates may not seem as if they should be a particularly high priority for retailers, given everything else coming at them right now. Tariffs have been slapped on some imports, with higher levies potentially to come. Mall traffic is endangered. Amazon.com Inc. looms, but tamping down on returns is intertwined with some of retail’s bigger problems and shouldn’t be overlooked. Consider, for example, the role inventory management has played in recent years in sorting winners and losers in the clothing business.

We’ve seen Gap Inc. struggle mightily to work through an issue related to the timing of orders at its namesake chain, while J.C. Penney Co.’s margins have been pinched as it works to unload slow-moving merchandise.

If the merch ain't moving..... greate$t economy ever?

Related:

"Gap Inc. plans to close one of its major New York City stores next month. The clothing retailer, which said in November that it might close hundreds of underperforming Gap stores, will close a three-story location at 680 Fifth Ave. on Jan. 20, the company confirmed in an e-mail. Chief executive Art Peck also said last month that the value of some flagship locations was being scrutinized. Gap, which also operates the Old Navy and Banana Republic chains, has seen sales slide at its namesake brand amid broader struggles for some brick-and-mortar clothing retailers. It’s hoping that shuttering weak stores will boost the bottom line. The Fifth Avenue store is just south of Trump Tower, in an area with high rents that is frequented by tourists — particularly during the holiday season, because of its proximity to Rockefeller Center. Gap’s shares, which rose along with most US stocks on Wednesday, have lost about a quarter of their value in 2018."

That's according to Bloomberg(!), and you want to go get something to eat (I heard it's the “the jewel of the city”)? 

Retailers can do small things to cut down on returns of online orders, but this is a complex issue that was never going to be fully solved by such simple measures.

If retailers could better predict how many e-commerce shipments might be coming back to their warehouses or their brick-and-mortar stores, it would smooth their inventory-management overall, and transportation costs have become burdensome these days, so if, say, an apparel chain can prevent having to pay for a return trip in a truck for a sweater, this surely helps them cope.

Seems $trangely ironic that is what I'll be returning, and how can transportation costs be a burden when the price of gas has been so low and relatively still is?

Related: 

"Things haven’t been this bad for the world’s biggest oil stock since Ronald Reagan became president, but brace yourself, 2019 may not be much better. Exxon Mobil Corp., down 22 percent for the year, is headed for its worst annual performance since 1981, when the United States was in recession and a 20-year crude glut was just beginning. The decline comes as Exxon pursues one of the largest restructurings in its modern history, a seven-year, $200 billion push for oil in South America and natural gas in Mozambique and Papua New Guinea." 

The tiger has become a pu$$ycat!

Against this backdrop, Girish Rishi, the CEO of JDA Software, and Uwe Weiss, the CEO of Blue Yonder, a company recently acquired by JDA, talked about their efforts to use artificial intelligence and machine learning to tackle retail’s big returns challenge. They explained their idea of ‘‘return-conscious pricing,’’ and it’s a powerful example of how, like so many other aspects of retail, e-commerce is necessitating a different way of problem-solving and fresh thinking about shopper behavior.

Well, even if the venture doesn't work out at least the money got into the right hands.

Rishi and Weiss said that when pricing fashion items, retailers often simply ask themselves, ‘‘What price would make this item competitive in the marketplace?,’’ but, in an era when exploding return rates are weighing on profitability, they also should be asking, ‘‘What price would lower the return rate for this item?’’

Blue Yonder is finding that lowering prices tends to lower return rates. There’s some intuitive logic to this, even if it doesn’t seem to make for good business sense at first blush. If a blouse costs $40 or $45, and it’s not a perfect fit or exactly to your taste, you’re going to want your money back, but maybe, at $32, returning it isn’t worth the hassle.

OMFG!

It still doesn't fit, whether it's $30, $45, $100, $500, or $15.

You know what isn't worth the hassle anymore?

‘‘It’s not very rational for retailers to lower their price,’’ Weiss says. ‘‘But if you lower the price, you get into a different price category or cluster. And getting into the cluster means you reduce the likelihood of a return, which gives you greater profitability.’’

Think of it as a fire $ale, and don't stay out in the cold for long.

So which "clu$ter" are you in?

Optoro, a company that helps retailers manage returns, estimates that some $94 billion worth of merchandise will be sent back during the holiday season. By using their own data more wisely, store owners and chains can help ensure next year’s reject batch isn’t quite as much of a deluge.

They are already talking about next year!

--more--"

Looks like the record-breaking Chri$tma$ is going to get returned, huh?

"Federal minimum wage fell by 14 cents this year, when adjusted for inflation" by Christopher Ingraham Washington Post  December 27, 2018

A problem for workers at the low end of the wage scale because inflation steadily gnaws away at the value of the minimum wage as time passes.

We are told the Federal Reserve is on that, that their main mission is to keep inflation in check  etc, etc. It's behind everything they do, and why everything is such a mess.

While that’s bad news for low-end workers, it’s good news for the companies that employ them: An hour of minimum wage labor now costs less, relative to the price of everything else, than it did back in 2009. Employers get to decide what to do with that $1.06 in savings. They could pass it on to consumers, for instance, or they could simply pocket it as profit for themselves and their shareholders. Given that corporate profits are near record levels, it’s safe to assume that there’s a considerable amount of the latter going on.

OMFG!!!

The cavalier attitude in describing the wealthy looting the minimum wage increases tells you all you need to know about my pre$$. This article just happens to be part of the WaComPo pile.

You know, freedom costs a buck-o-five and that is a pretty good return on it.

There’s been a steady decline in the inflation-adjusted value of the wage since about 1968, but that’s not because voters are demanding a stingy minimum: They’ve actually been clamoring for higher minimum wages for quite some time, but policymakers aren’t responding to public demand. In some cases, lawmakers are working to keep the minimum wage where it is by slow-walking voter-initiated minimum-wage hikes or overturning them completely.

And they wonder why we have populi$t fury?

Recent research shows that the reason elected officials are dragging their feet on popular policies like the minimum wage is that they pay a lot more attention to the needs and desires of business groups than they do to regular voters. Those groups tend to oppose minimum wage increases because they eat into profit margins.

OMFG! 

That's not news; it's just a shock to see it in print.

Corporate pushback aside, the latest research on the minimum wage shows that there’s little reason for policymakers to fear raising it. The best available data suggest that minimum-wage hikes increase pay for workers at the bottom of the income spectrum but otherwise have little effect on overall employment.

Or so we are told when the evidence indicates the exact opposite.

--more--"

You flip the page and they are still talking about it:

"For minimum-wage workers, the bump is a cause for celebration, but some business owners are stressed as they try to figure out how to adjust to the higher labor costs....."

I was just told it has no effe..... arrrggghhhhh!

"The richest people on Earth lost $511 billion this year after record first-half gains were obliterated by a succession of bruising market sell-offs. Global trade tensions and worries about a US recession dragged markets lower at year’s end, leaving the 500 people on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index with a combined net worth of $4.7 trillion as of Friday’s close. It’s only the second annual decline for the daily wealth index since its 2012 debut, and represents a sharp about-turn from the start of the year, when bullish investors helped propel the fortunes of the richest to a record $5.6 trillion. Even Jeff Bezos, who recorded the biggest gain for 2018, wasn’t spared the volatility. His fortune peaked at $168 billion in September, a $69 billion gain. It later tumbled $53 billion to leave him with $115 billion at year’s end. The Amazon.com founder had a better year than Mark Zuckerberg, who recorded the biggest loss since January, dropping $23 billion as Facebook Inc. careened from crisis to crisis. Overall, the 173 US billionaires on the list — the largest cohort — lost 5.9 percent from their fortunes to leave them with $1.9 trillion."

Oh, poor, poor, Bezos and Zuck!! 

How will they ever $urvive?!

By ringing a bell?


"Donations to the Salvation Army’s $3.5 million holiday drive might be lagging, but there is still some sparkle in the famous red kettles. Diamond rings, wedding bands, and other jewelry have been quietly slipped into red kettles in Boston, Sturbridge, Uxbridge, and West Bridgewater. It’s the fifth straight year shoppers have parted with precious jewelry for the holiday campaign, which ends on Christmas Eve. The extra cash will help boost the fortunes of the non-profit that serves people in need. Cash donations to the Red Kettle Holiday Campaign are down nearly 20 percent from 2017 in half the locations across Massachusetts, the agency said last week......"

This while corporate and wealthy elite fortunes have rose by about the same amount, wow -- and they pilfered your minimum wage increase, too!

You can't blame me; I was guilted in to giving by the tolling of the bell (plus I like them better than government. They fill the gaps without the corruption).

"New Orleans’ mayor says the city deserves to get a bigger percentage of the $166 million collected each year from a 15 percent surcharge on hotel rooms. Mayor LaToya Cantrell says the city of Mardi Gras fame receives barely more than 1 in 10 of each dollar collected from the taxes and fees visitors pay. The Southern tourist destination is grappling with longstanding infrastructure challenges, including potholes, drainage problems and sporadic drinking water issues. Winning a bigger slice of the pie could be a tall political order for the new mayor — much of the money is earmarked for the Superdome and other state-owned institutions."

You want the Saints to have a nice home, right?

That gets us back to the front page as the rest of the bu$ine$$ section is more of the $ame old slip that gets under my skin and  besides, there is nothing to get $toked about.

"Stocks Bounce Back From Edge of Bear Market" by Emily Flitter New York Times   December 27, 2018

NEW YORK — Throughout Wall Street’s December meltdown, analysts have been saying that markets were plunging despite plenty of evidence the US economy remains strong and corporate profit growth is healthy.

That argument finally found listeners on Wednesday, when early reports of a strong holiday-shopping season helped lift the S&P 500 by nearly 5 percent, its best day since 2009. The Nasdaq added 5.8 percent, and the Dow Jones industrial average rose just under 5 percent. That jump, of 1,086.25 points, represented the Dow’s best single-session gain ever.

Markets were stuttering Wednesday morning but became more sure-footed after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett assured reporters that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s job is ‘‘100 percent safe.’’

Why not just make him president then? 

That is obviously the most powerful position in this country, not the President of the United States.

Hassett, in an appearance on Fox Business Network, also said President Trump ‘‘is very happy’’ with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

That's the kiss of death from this guy.

Trump’s criticism of the Fed and Powell has shaken Wall Street as it weathers its worst December in history, but to some traders, the gains finally made sense.

Was part of his gift to the American people.

Data from Mastercard showed that US holiday sales grew at the fastest pace in six years, and investors flocked to the retail sector. Amazon called its season “record-breaking” without offering details.

It's all going to be returned from out of the wild Blue Yonder!

Oil prices, too, were on the move after Russia’s energy minister told a Russian newspaper the country would benefit from continuing to cooperate with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on regulating production.

Now you know who is controlling the supply of oil, and it puts a different look to the whole Khashoggi thing and Putin-MbS high five in Argentina, 'eh?

Makes one wonder if anyone was killed at all, and the CIA being so sure of it doesn't help convince me.

Technology stocks rebounded, too. Investors have had plenty of cause for concern. A slowing global economy could hurt sales, tensions are rising with China on manufacturing of devices, and privacy concerns could bring more regulation.

The rally doesn’t mean this year’s precipitous decline is over. Signs of economic health that encouraged the buying are doing little to address one of investors’ primary concerns. They worry the Federal Reserve’s decision to continue raising interest rates, even at a slightly slower pace, will hurt the economy and profits.

Which is who our public officials are running interference for!

“The Fed is making a monumental mistake,” said Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel. “They do not realize how long and by how much they’ve tightened already, and until they back off the market’s going to have a very weak floor under it.”

Agrees with Trump!

It helped matters Wednesday that Trump refrained from offering new criticism of the Fed. In the days before Christmas, he railed against the central bank and vowed to keep the government shut down for an extended period.

For the first trading session in many days, Trump posted just one tweet: about his trip to Iraq.....

That was on page A2, and it's all about Iran despite the warnings from Russia (let's not forget the Ukraine, either).

Not looking as goodgift as I thought, sob, after he was on the right track (how do you sing I've been working on the railroad in Korean?).

--more--"

Turns out the Iraqis also demand US withdrawal, but the Globe decided to post pictures instead before Trump returns his attention to the shutdown:

"Trump vowed to hold the line, telling reporters as he flew to Iraq that he’ll do ‘‘whatever it takes’’ to get money for border security. He declined to say how much he would accept in a deal to end the shutdown, stressing the need for border security....."

What about all the dead kids?

The pre$$ also asked him about his draft status and how he got Jewish doctors to give him as many deferrals as Vice.

The Democrats did a Russia in Alabama and no one gives a hoot?

Hoffman the billionaire, huh?

"‘It’s Over’: Iran’s economic turmoil ravages its middle class" by Thomas Erdbrink   December 27, 2018

TEHRAN — Before their “downfall,” as they call it, the Taymouris were the model middle-class Iranian family, prosperous college-educated business owners who made enough money to save for a down payment on their own home. Now, they are a model for a different sort: the millions of middle-class Iranians who almost overnight have seen their lives shrink, dragged down by economic forces beyond their control.

It behooves me to point out that the Iranian people are so like the American people!

The fact is, we would be friends were it not for the Zionist vise grip over the U.S. government.

Iran’s economy is in a shambles, savaged by years of mismanagement and renewed economic sanctions. The government has expanded the money supply by more than 30 percent annually for more than a decade, using the extra cash to cover budget deficits and other expenses. In the United States, by comparison, a broad measure of the money supply has increased by an annual average of 6.4 percent over the past decade, according to the Federal Reserve.

So the Iranians did the same thing, only multiplied by five (and remember, they don't control the world's reserve currency like the Fed leech that gets a piece of the action for every transaction. That's the reason that undergirds all the wars).

As a result of Iran’s rapid expansion of the money supply, said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech University, inflation has exploded and by official figures is now running at an annual rate of 35 percent compared with below 10 percent a year ago.

I've gotten mixed me$$ages regarding that here, and the rapid expansion of the money supply was what saved the U.S. $y$tem in 2008 so WTF?

President Trump’s decision to leave the nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, and to reimpose harsh economic sanctions prompted the other major economic disaster to befall Iran: a collapse in its currency, Salehi-Isfahani said. The rial lost about 70 percent against the dollar before strengthening recently, but its rates are still fluctuating heavily.

“The withdrawal busted the expectations for an economic boom created by the JCPOA and Iran’s return to the global economy, which was expected to boost oil exports and foreign investment,” he said. “The reversal caused people to convert their rials into other assets, mainly dollars and gold.”

By raising the cost of imports, the currency collapse has reinforced the inflationary surge and decimated small businesses that, like the Taymouris’, rely on imported goods.....

Aren't those the same complaints Trump gets from the corporations and $pecial intere$ts?

--more--"

Ready for your new assignment in Africa?

"Tunisia’s journalists union announced a campaign of protests, possibly leading to a general strike, after a photographer set himself ablaze in a reminder of the spark that ignited the Arab Spring uprisings in late 2010. Abdel-Razaq Zarqi set himself on fire Monday in the restive Kasserine region, in an act of protest that triggered clashes between security forces and demonstrators, local media reported. The impoverished area has been the site of frequent militant attacks, often targeting security forces, and anti-government demonstrations. Tunisia had been hailed as the Arab Spring uprising’s most significant success story. While democracy has flourished in the nation, it has been roiled by political infighting, repeated labor strikes, and militant attacks that have battered the vital tourism sector. That has hindered successive governments from reviving the economy, attracting foreign investment, or making a significant dent in the core issues that led to the self-immolation of a fruit vendor that ignited the Arab Spring revolts eight years ago."

I'm tired of the self-adulating, self-aggrandizing, self-congratulatory elitism, and it's funny how the Arab Spring only benefited the unexpected (tells you who was really behind the protests), while the cause of the blaze was the fast-burning Thai pot the reporter was smoking (better get a lawyer).

Anybody hungry for pizza?

Sean Hannity’s ratings fall since the midterms 

I've stopped watching cable and network news, period, and why is the FBI promoting Eastwood's new movie?