"US economy shrinks 5% in first quarter" by Martin Crutsinger Associated Press, June 25, 2020
WASHINGTON — The US economy shrank at a 5 percent rate in the first quarter and a vastly worse performance is expected in the current three-month period, when the coronavirus pandemic began to spread across the United States.
Forecasters believe the economy will rebound in the second half of the year. The Congressional Budget Office is predicting a 21.5 percent growth rate in the upcoming July-September quarter followed by a 10.4 percent gain in the fourth quarter; however, a handful of states, particularly in the South, have begun to report surging infections, and even if a rebound materializes in July, it will follow seismic losses that would mean a decline in economic output for the entire year.
While overall GDP was unchanged for the first quarter, the composition shifted slightly with downward revisions to consumer spending, exports and business inventories offset by an upward revision to business investment. The Thursday report was the government’s third and final look at first quarter GDP.
Looks like a $hell game.
The damage to the economy from the epidemic was also reflected in a Federal Reserve notice on Thursday. The Fed temporarily restricted shareholder payouts by the nation’s biggest banks, barring them from buying back their own stocks or increasing dividend payments in the third quarter as regulators try to ensure banks remain strong enough to keep lending through the downturn. The decision to limit payouts is an admission by the Fed that large financial institutions, while far better off than they were in the financial crisis, remain vulnerable to an economic downturn unlike any other in modern history.
I'll bet that made the banks mad!
Some of the Fed’s own loss projections for banks, in fact, suggest that the eventual hit to loans in a bad scenario could be far worse than in the aftermath of 2008. Still, the Fed stopped short of barring banks from paying dividends next quarter as some lawmakers and former regulators have urged — a decision that drew public criticism from one of the Fed’s current governors, who said not taking stronger measures could “impair the recovery.”
Yeah, but still!
The Fed, which devised its primary stress test scenarios before the virus tore through the economy, will require the 34 biggest banks to resubmit and update their capital plans later this year, something it has usually required only for banks that failed to pass. Those plans detail how the banks intend to proceed with share buybacks and dividend increases in light of the pandemic, and the Fed said that resubmitting them “will help firms reassess their capital needs.”
I hope the banks are healthy, don't you?
The panel of economists that determines when US recessions begin said that February marked the end of the longest economic expansion in US history, 128 months of uninterrupted growth that began after the 2008 financial crisis.
It died under Hoover, 'er, Trump!
President Trump has declared that the economy will come roaring back with a V-shaped recovery starting this summer. Larry Kudlow, the president’s chief economics adviser, said on Thursday that even with the resurgence in COVID-19 cases, the administration is still looking for a strong recovery in the second half of this year.
“I think the strong V-recovery is still right there,” Kudlow said on the Fox Business Network.
The V-neck recovery is the noose he will find himself in November, for the numbers will still be $hit. Opening a few business at less than 50% capacity before shutting down again is akin to death by starvation and thirst (something else that will be part Trump's legacy come next winter after he is gone), and I had to go to PBS for rest of the print:
Kudlow predicted GDP will rise at a 20% annual rate in the third quarter and the fourth quarter and then rise by 5% in the first quarter, which he said would recoup all of the GDP losses in the first half of this year.
Economists are nowhere near that optimistic. They are worried about the devastating impact of a second wave of infections and think it will take a couple of years to get back the lost GDP output.
“The foundation to this recovery is an improving health outlook,” said Lydia Boussour, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “Amid rapidly rising infections across many states, risks to the outlook are dangerously tilted to the downside.”
Financial markets took a sharp nosedive Wednesday, reflecting new worries about reports of rising coronavirus cases in many states. They rose moderately Thursday.
“I can’t remember the economy facing this much uncertainty,” said Sung Won Sohn, a business and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. He said that until a vaccine is found and widely available, the high uncertainty can be expected to last.
Quit jabbing that damn agenda at us!
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said for the country to avoid a double-dip recession, an effective vaccine needs to be available next year and new waves of coronavirus cases will need to do less damage than the first wave. Congress needs to soon pass another package of at least $1 trillion in further support for laid-off workers and struggling businesses, Zandi said.
“If any of these three things don’t happen, then the outlook is much darker,” Zandi said. “I think we are in a recovery mode right now but the economy is very fragile.”
If one can even call it a recovery beyond technocratic means.
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The article never mentioned the onerous restrictions or limited capacities, etc, that are holding back a true V-shaped recovery.
Forecasters see an economic rebound in the second half of 2020, but suggest that numbers for the second quarter could be the worst ever (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images).
I guess some people are exempt from masks.
After flipping the page, it's time for a check of stocks before going shopping at Macy's:
"Financial companies led stocks broadly higher on Wall Street Thursday as traders welcomed news that the Federal Reserve and other regulators are removing some limits on the ability of banks to make investments. Banks surged after the Fed and four regulatory agencies announced they’re going to change a rule that has limited banks’ ability to make investments in such areas as hedge funds. The rule change could free up billions of dollars in capital in the banking industry. “It is potentially quite meaningful for the banks,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust. Until this week, markets had been mostly rallying on hopes that US states and regions around the world could continue to lift the spring lockdowns put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Recent economic data have been positive, helping fuel the cautious optimism, but a rise in new infections is stoking worries that the reopening of businesses may have to be curtailed again, delaying the economy’s recovery. On a more encouraging note, the government said orders to American factories for big-ticket goods rebounded last month from a steep pullback in April and March as the economy began to slowly reopen. The mixed data come amid growing alarm over a surge in cases of COVID-19. Hospitalizations and caseloads have hit new highs in over a half-dozen states, including California, Florida and Texas, where the governor on Thursday said the state would pause its aggressive reopening as it deals with a surge in cases and hospitalizations. The daily number of confirmed cases in the country closed in on the peak reached in late April. “The market is trying to figure out what the impact this is going to have on consumer activity in coming months, and it’s not clear now because we don’t know how bad this spike is going to get,” said Roth. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup all rose more than 3 percent as investors cheered word that the Fed and other regulators have finalized a rule that will ease restrictions imposed by the Volcker Rule, which was part of the overhaul of banking regulation approved in the Dodd-Frank Act passed by Congress in 2010 in an effort to curtail excesses that had led to the 2008 financial crisis. President Trump had campaigned in 2016 on rolling back what he saw as over-regulation of banks that had weighed on the economy by preventing then from making loans to qualified borrowers....."
Oh, I gue$$ they were not angry but very, very happy with the Fed yesterday as orders rebounded after plunging in April.
"Macy’s cuts corporate headcount by 3,900" by Abha Bhattarai Washington Post, June 25, 2020
WASHINGTON — Macy’s is eliminating a quarter of its corporate workforce, slashing 3,900 white-collar jobs in a sweeping effort to cut costs during the coronavirus pandemic.
The layoffs announced Thursday come just months after the beleaguered retailer announced it would close 125 stores — about a fifth of its total — and shed 2,000 positions after a disappointing holiday season. The company also is scaling back staffing at its Macy’s and Bloomingdales stores, distribution facilities, and customer service centers, but says it will ‘‘adjust as sales recover.’’
Then the economy was sick before COVID came along, huh?
Chief executive Jeff Gennette, in a statement, said, ‘‘While the reopening of our stores is going well, we do anticipate a gradual recovery of business . . . We know that we will be a smaller company for the foreseeable future.’’
More like forever -- if they even survive, which is doubtful. Part of Trump's legacy. The destruction of Macy's.
Coronavirus-related store closures have led to a precipitous drop in sales that has roiled the retail industry, which was in trouble long before the pandemic. Six national retailers — including department store chains J.C. Penney and Neiman Marcus — have filed for bankruptcy since May. As many as 25,000 brick-and-mortar stores are expected to permanently close this year, according to Coresight Research, which will have far-reaching effects on shopping malls, workers and local communities.
They can be repurposed into COVID concentration and extermination camps -- another part of Trump's legacy.
Macy’s latest announcement, analysts say, shows that retail job cuts, which until now had been largely concentrated among store employees and hourly workers, are beginning to reach white-collar positions in office buildings.
Gonna jump or join the rest of us in defying tyranny and fighting for freedom and liberty?
‘‘This is a significant number of layoffs and it really underlines the fact that while Macy’s has done a good job of securing financing to see it through this crisis, it is still burning through cash,’’ Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData Retail. ‘‘It is a long-term retrenchment, and an acknowledgment that sales are nowhere close to what they used to be. Macy’s is doing what it can to quickly cut costs — which, in this case, means cutting corporate jobs,’’ Saunders said, ‘‘but the truth is, its costs are still way in excess of profits.’’
Analysts say Macy’s, though, is in relatively good shape. The probability that it will default on its loans in the coming year has declined from 44 percent in April to 17 percent in June, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, as stores reopen and sales inch back up. Macy’s has also obtained about $4.5 billion in financing that Gennette said would make it ‘‘a more stable, flexible company.’’
The nation’s largest department store chain furloughed the majority of its 125,000 employees in mid-March, after coronavirus-related closures led to a steep decline in sales. Many of those workers are expected to return to work in July, as the company systematically reopens stores across the country.
Macy’s shares closed down Thursday.....
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Have you seen the zombies in their stores lately?
"The federal government sent coronavirus stimulus payments to almost 1.1 million dead people totaling nearly $1.4 billion, Congress’ independent watchdog reported Thursday. There have been news reports, including in The Boston Globe, that the Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service disbursed some payments of up to $1,200 each to dead people, but the scope of the problem had not been known. The US Government Accountability Office, an independent investigative agency that reports to Congress, issued the finding as part of a comprehensive report on the nearly $3 trillion in coronavirus relief spending approved by Congress in March and April. The revelation comes as President Trump and some members of his administration advocate for another round of stimulus checks. The news that so much money has gone to the dead could add to the reluctance from some Republicans to agree to more direct relief payments. The GAO makes clear how, in the mad dash to pass legislation to prop up an economy in free-fall in the midst of an unprecedented pandemic, mistakes were made....."
Oh, MISTAKES were MADE in HURRIEDLY HANDING OUT the LOOT!
Strange how they always redound to a certain cho$en group's benefit, huh?
Turns out inmates also got virus relief checks, and the IRS wants the money back.
Related: LA Lakers $tole SBA Loot
The up-and-down on the court ended $oon after.
Related:
"Chuck E. Cheese, where kids could be kids while parents nursed headaches, is filing for bankruptcy protection. The 43-year-old chain, which drew kids with pizza, video games, and a singing mouse mascot, was struggling even before the coronavirus pandemic, but it said the prolonged closure of many venues due to coronavirus restrictions led to Thursday’s Chapter 11 filing. CEC Entertainment Inc. has reopened 266 company-operated Chuck E. Cheese and Peter Piper Pizza restaurants, but it’s unclear how willing parents will be to host birthday parties and other gatherings. The Irving, Texas-based company will continue to reopen locations and offer carryout while it negotiates with debt and lease holders. CEC and its franchisees operate 734 restaurants in 47 states and 16 countries."
Here, put this in his mouth to get the brat to stop crying:
"Consumers around the world will soon be able to know intricate life details of the salmon they eat with a new blockchain initiative from top exporter Norway. The Norwegian Seafood Association has partnered with International Business Machines Corp. and technology provider Atea ASA to gather data on how salmon is bred, stored, and shipped, information that consumers will eventually access by scanning a QR code. That will help Norway’s suppliers differentiate their premium products from other exporters, curb origin fraud, and cut waste."
Little bastard spit it out!
Time to wash his Big Mouth out with soap:
"Consumer products giant Unilever said Thursday it is aiming for a “more inclusive vision of beauty” in its skin care products and will remove words such as “fair,” “whitening,” and “lightening” from its products, a move that comes amid intense global debate about race sparked by the Black Lives Matter movement. As part of the shift, Unilever will in coming months change the name of its “Fair & Lovely” product that is used for skin-lightening and sold in Asia, the company said. “We are fully committed to having a global portfolio of skin care brands that is inclusive and cares for all skin tones, celebrating greater diversity of beauty,’’ Sunny Jain, the head of Unilever’s Beauty & Personal Care. “We recognize that the use of the words ‘fair’, ‘white’ and ‘light’ suggest a singular ideal of beauty that we don’t think is right, and we want to address this. Unilever said that its Fair & Lovely range “has never been, and is not, a skin bleaching product.” The global consumer company said its advertising for Fair & Lovely products has been changing since 2014."
Michael Jackson is currently spinning in his grave at warp speed.
Somebody call the cops:
When it comes to Boston Police reforms, unions are often the sticking point
They are on ORANGE ALERT as Mayor Walsh forms an equity cabinet office to fight racial injustice.
It's easy to blame the union, but dismantling police departments is a recipe for chaos so don't let the need for reform get hijacked.
House OK’s broad police overhaul but Senate’s unlikely to go along
What did I just say?!!?
N.Y. officer faces charges after unlawful chokehold
3 officers fired in N.C. after racist, violent remarks
Chicago Board of Education divided over police funding
Death after arrest by Colorado police receiving renewed attention
After they buried the white man(?) on page B3:
"Pepperell police shoot man as they try to take him into custody" by Travis Andersen Globe Staff, June 25, 2020
Pepperell police shot and seriously wounded a man armed with a knife Thursday as they tried to take him into custody on a civil commitment warrant, authorities said.
The incident occurred at 11:35 a.m. when officers responded to a home on Tarbell Street, Pepperell police said in a statement.
“The officers arrived at the location and a 30-year-old man, identified as the subject of the civil commitment warrant, was present at the location, allegedly in possession of a knife,” the statement said. “As a result of events that transpired in the home, one Pepperell officer discharged his service weapon striking the 30-year-old male.”
Authorities gave no details on the warrant or what the man allegedly did to result in police shooting him.
Police immediately rendered aid to the man, who was not identified, and called for assistance from Pepperell firefighters and paramedics, according to officials.
They tried to save him like the police did Brooks in Atlanta!
The man was taken to Lowell General Hospital and later flown by medical helicopter to a Boston hospital with “serious injuries,” the statement said. His condition wasn’t known Thursday afternoon, though a spokeswoman for Middlesex District Attorney Marian T. Ryan, which is also investigating the incident, called the shooting “not fatal.”
She said with her fingers crossed.
Related:
"An arrest warrant was issued Thursday for a man who allegedly fatally shot a Boston woman as she sat in the front seat of a car parked on a street in Lowell last week, the Middlesex district attorney’s office said. Police are searching for Xavier DeJesus, 20, of Lowell, who is suspected of shooting Deija Mendez, 23, in the head last Tuesday, Middlesex District Attorney Marian Ryan said in a statement....."
After finding her, they flew her to the hospital where she was declared dead.
Also see: Victim in Dorchester slaying identified as 19-year-old from Jamaica Plain
I guess the life of one Malik Gabbidon doesn't matter much.
One officer was treated for injuries at Nashoba Valley Medical Center and released, police said.
“There is an active and ongoing investigation of the incident,” the statement said.
Massachusetts law allows for a person to be civilly committed for alcohol or substance use disorder, or for emergency hospitalization for mental health reasons, according to mass.gov. Such commitments are permissible only when people presents a risk of serious harm to themselves or others.
--more--"
Related:
"A 31-year-old man named Jonathan stood up before a crowd in a State House lounge Wednesday and spoke about a horrific experience. In April, he said, his family abruptly decided that he needed treatment for his drinking. So they took advantage of a state law called Section 35 to have him civilly committed — ordered into treatment by a judge. Soon he was shackled in a police van and taken to the Massachusetts Alcohol and Substance Abuse Center, or MASAC, a Plymouth treatment program run by the state Department of Correction. It was surrounded by tall fences topped with razor wire. Jonathan said he’d never been to prison, but this sure looked like one, and he hadn’t committed a crime. He was forbidden to leave for weeks....."
Whatever you do, don't call the authorities on your loved one. The government is not there to help.
"Mississippi legislators were under increasing pressure Thursday to remove the Confederate battle emblem from the state flag, amid national protests over racial injustice and urging from sports leagues and leaders in business, religion, and education. A Republican former governor, Phil Bryant, on Thursday advocated replacing the Confederate symbol with another flag design. “I was proud as Governor to add ‘In God We Trust’ to the State Seal,’’ Bryant wrote on Twitter. “It will make a great Mississippi State Flag.” Bryant left office in January after eight years as governor and four before that as lieutenant governor — and he never pushed the politically volatile issue of changing the flag during his time in office. Current Republican Governor Tate Reeves said Wednesday, for the first time, that he probably would not stand in the way if legislators muster a large enough majority to change the flag. Mississippi is the last state with a flag that includes the emblem that many see as racist."
They are the lone holdout, and the emblem has got to go as the Boston Art Commission hears public input on the future of a Lincoln statue because it is now considered a “a complete and utter disgrace” in what can only be described as a lynching of Lincoln by the history books of the future, and enough of this nonsense.
{@@##$$%%^^&&}
Trump plans a big fireworks fund-raiser at Mount Rushmore
That's despite the virus and wildfire risks (won't it be outside?), while "on Thursday, a wildfire was burning about six miles from Mount Rushmore. The fire, which started in Custer State Park on Wednesday, burned an estimated 150 acres and was only 25 percent contained Thursday morning. Ian Fury, a spokesman for South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, a Republican, said in an e-mail that the National Park Service had concluded the holiday event would not harm the environment and conducted a controlled burn earlier this month to reduce brush that could fuel a wildfire."
They literally lit a fire under Trump and then said it poses a risk to his visit. Doesn't kill the shadow that follows him around; however the guy is being sabotaged with every step he takes!
Fortunately, the WHO stamped this fire out:
"The second-worst Ebola outbreak in history is over, the World Health Organization said Thursday, after nearly two years and 2,280 deaths. Efforts to fight the outbreak in eastern Congo were hampered by mistrust from community members, feuds between government officials, attacks on health care facilities, and the emergence of new hot spots. The announcement came even as the country contended with the world’s largest measles epidemic as well as the coronavirus pandemic. The Ebola response drew on 16,000 front-line workers, technological innovation, and a vaccine. This was Congo’s 10th known outbreak of Ebola. The country is still fighting a separate, smaller eruption of the disease that began in the northwestern city of Mbandaka. “It wasn’t easy,” Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, the WHO regional director for Africa, said of fighting the virus. “At times it seemed like a mission impossible. Ending this Ebola outbreak is a sign of hope for the region and the world, that with solidarity and science and courage and commitment, even the most challenging epidemics can be controlled.”
It's the goddamn agenda-pushing jabs delivered in every article, and it obliterates any credulity.
"The number of Americans who have been infected with the novel coronavirus is likely 10 times higher than the 2.3 million confirmed cases, according to the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In a call with reporters Thursday, Robert Redfield, CDC director, said, ‘‘Our best estimate right now is that for every case that’s reported, there actually are 10 other infections.’’ Redfield said the estimate is based on blood samples collected from across the country that look for the presence of antibodies. For every confirmed case, 10 more people had antibodies, Redfield said. Using that methodology would pushes the tally of US cases to at least 23 million. Redfield and another top official at the CDC said young people are driving the surge in the South and West. They attributed that to the broader testing of people under 50. He also estimated that 92 percent to 95 percent of the US population is still susceptible. Officials also broadened the list of people at increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19. They removed the specific age threshold for older adults, saying that it’s not just those over 65 who are at increased risk, but that the risk increases steadily with age, and for the first time, agency officials also said pregnant women face higher risks of severe illness from the virus including needing treatment in intensive care units and the use of ventilators. A CDC report released Thursday provides the most comprehensive information so far about the virus’s impact on pregnancy. In addressing the surge in cases, Redfield acknowledged that the increases may make the map of the country look like ‘‘substantial portions of the United States are in red.’’ In reality, he said, about 110 to 120 counties are ‘‘hot spots’’ with significant transmission, or about 3 percent of all US counties. ‘‘We’re not talking about a second wave right now, we’re still in the first wave,’’ he added. ‘‘That first wave is taking different shapes.’’
We are still in the first wave even with empty hospitals and a flattened curve and all the rest, with a a second wave and third wave and fourth wave on the way as they milk this f**king thing for all its worth!
Think about what they are saying up there and all the contradictions inherent in the propaganda messaging. If more have been exposed, the minimal death rate drops lower and there is more herd immunity than claimed.
Redfield also claims over 90% are still susceptible. That would indicate that the LOCKDOWNS FAILED! The strategy based on a false model from England and that destroyed economic livelihoods was a FAILURE!
No wonder these agenda-pushing liars are alarmed with panic. Their criminal asses are being exposed!
Fire in the hole!
"Texas paused its reopening process and moved to free up hospital space for virus patients amid growing concern over its rising tally of cases, Governor Greg Abbott said Thursday. Texas is one of 29 states where case numbers have been rising. On Wednesday, the United States reported its largest one-day total since the start of the pandemic: 36,880 new cases, more than two months after the previous high....."
They want to put into the PEDIATRIC WINGS of hospitals, so after the nursing home debacles that murdered our beloved elderly they are now going to infect and murder your children, an even more evil blow!
It's closer to Trump than you think, and can you imagine the cheers from the hateful left when he inevitably tests positive?
"Dozens of Secret Service officers and agents who were on site for President Trump’s rally in Tulsa, Okla., last week were ordered to self-quarantine after two of their colleagues tested positive for COVID-19. The Secret Service instructed employees who worked the Tulsa event to stay home for 14 days when they returned from the weekend trip, according to two people familiar with the agency’s decision. The order was made after the discovery — hours before the president’s Saturday evening rally — that at least six advance staffers who helped organize the trip had tested positive for the virus, including two Secret Service employees. Another two advance staffers tested positive after Trump returned to Washington on Sunday."
The double bonus is Trump will have to be yanked off the campaign trail and confined to the White House basement:
"In Poll, Trump Falls Far Behind Biden in Six Key Battleground States; Dwindling white support for the president leads to a deficit of at least six points in each state" by Nate Cohn New York Times, June 25, 2020
President Trump has lost significant ground in the six battleground states that clinched his Electoral College victory in 2016, according to New York Times/Siena College surveys, with Joseph R. Biden Jr. opening double-digit leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump’s once-commanding advantage among white voters has nearly vanished, a development that would all but preclude the president’s re-election if it persisted. Biden now has a 21-point lead among white college graduates, and the president is losing among white voters in the three Northern battleground states — not by much, but he won them by nearly 10 points in 2016.
Four years ago, Trump’s strength in the disproportionately white working-class battleground states allowed him to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. The surveys indicate that the president continues to fare better in these relatively white battleground states than he does nationwide. A separate Times/Siena survey released on Wednesday found Biden leading by 14 points nationwide, 50 percent to 36 percent.
Biden would win the presidency with at least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago. Most combinations of any three of the six states — which also include Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — would suffice.
There is still time for the president’s political standing to recover, just as it did on so many occasions four years ago. He maintains a substantial advantage on the economy, which could become an even more central issue in what has already been a volatile election cycle, and many of the undecided voters in these states lean Republican, and may end up returning to their party’s nominee, but for now, the findings confirm that the president’s political standing has deteriorated sharply since October, when Times/Siena polls found Biden ahead by just two percentage points across the same six states (the average gap is now nine points). Since then, the nation has faced a series of crises that would pose a grave political challenge to any president seeking re-election. The polls suggest that battleground-state voters believe the president has struggled to meet the moment.
How is the cratered and demolished economy to his benefit, especially with the tyrannical restrictions on people?
Over all, 42 percent of voters in the battleground states approve of how Mr. Trump is handling his job as president, while 54 percent disapprove.
There are your election night popular vote percentages, readers!
These six states — with their mix of major cities, old industrial hubs, growing suburbs, and even farmland — together deliver a grim judgment of Trump on recent issues that have shaken American life. His handling of the pandemic and the protests after the death of George Floyd help explain his erosion across both old and new battlegrounds.
Trump’s ratings are healthier on the kinds of issues that might have dominated the election season under more ordinary circumstances. His 56 percent approval rating on the economy, versus 40 percent who disapprove, is nearly the opposite of his overall job approval rating. Battleground voters say by a double-digit margin that he would do a better job on the issue than Biden, and they also prefer Trump to handle relations with China.
With a little more than four months to go until the election, there is still time for memories to fade or for the national debate to return to more favorable turf for the president, but these are not ordinary circumstances and for now the president’s coalition has suffered serious defections, eroding the familiar demographic divides of recent elections.
That is when my print copy turned of the New York Times election totals.
Allan Larson, 83, a recently retired mechanical engineer in Apache Junction, Ariz., began to regret his vote for the president shortly after he took office — he said Trump tried to do away with too many things President Obama had done, and kept firing good people — but his handling of the pandemic solidified his views. “He’s not doing anything about this here virus,” said Larson, who plans to vote for Biden. “Just the way he’s running things, I don’t think he’s doing the job he should do.”
On these recent issues, voter disapproval reflects more than just general dissatisfaction with the state of the country. It seems to reflect deeper disagreement with the president’s prioritization of the economy over stopping the spread of coronavirus, and with his focus on law and order over criminal justice. A majority of voters, 63 percent, say they would rather back a presidential candidate who focuses on the cause of protests, even when the protests go too far, while just 31 percent say they would prefer to support a candidate who says we need to be tough on demonstrations that go too far.
Despite double-digit unemployment, 55 percent of voters in these six states say the federal government’s priority should be to limit the spread of the coronavirus, even if it hurts the economy, while just 35 percent say the federal government’s priority should be to restart the economy. Even the newly unemployed, who would seem to have the most to gain from a reopened economy, say stopping the coronavirus should be the government’s priority.
Enjoy the hell they are constructing for you.
Of course, this is an NYT poll so it is to be taken with a grain of salt.
A high-profile clash with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan encapsulates the president’s challenge. Trump sided with protesters who opposed her stay-at-home orders, but voters in the state oppose the protests against social distancing restrictions by 57 percent to 37 percent. As of now, 59 percent of voters in Michigan disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the highest level of disapproval in any battleground state polled, and nearly 40 percent of registered voters there, including 11 percent of Republicans, say he has treated their state worse than others in response to the pandemic.
Time to be a little defiant and change the channel.
Joe Cook, a 35-year-old bakery manager in Orlando, Fla., voted for Trump in 2016 and disapproves of how he has handled the coronavirus outbreak. He said Trump shouldn’t have let the economy be shut down during the pandemic, and should have cracked down on rioters. Nevertheless, he will stick with Trump.
Biden, by contrast, has emerged from a contested primary with a unified Democratic coalition. He wins 93 percent of the voters who backed Clinton four years ago, as well as 92 percent of self-identified Democrats. Biden also enjoys a significant advantage among those who voted for neither Trump nor Clinton in 2016. He has a 35-point lead among battleground voters who said they backed a minor-party candidate or wrote in another.
Together, these shifts give Biden a six-point lead among voters who participated in the 2016 election, according to voter-file records. The same voters said they backed Trump over Clinton in 2016 by 2.5 percentage points, slightly better for Trump than the actual result of the six states, offering a level of validity to the survey’s findings. Biden also has a 17-point lead among registered voters who did not vote in the 2016 race.
Trump’s edge among white voters has dwindled despite national attention to the kind of racial issues that many analysts believed propelled his strength among white voters in the first place. If attitudes about race were vital to Trump’s appeal with white voters, then a foundation of his strength has been badly shaken.
National polls suggest that the Black Lives Matter movement has become significantly more popular since the 2016 election. The Times/Siena polls find that white voters in the battleground states support the recent protests and agree with the movement’s major complaints about the criminal justice system, including that the death of George Floyd is part of a broader pattern of excessive police violence, and that the criminal justice system is biased against African-Americans. They disapprove of how the president is handling both the recent protests and race relations more generally.
Biden’s gains among white voters have been largest among the young and college-educated white voters likeliest to back the protesters’ views on racial issues. Over all in the six states, Biden holds a 55-34 lead among white voters with at least a four-year college degree, an 11-point gain from October. White voters under age 35 now back Mr. Biden by a margin of 50 percent to 31 percent, up from an all-but-tied race in October.
White voters without a degree, the linchpin of the president’s winning coalition, back Trump by a 16-point margin in the battlegrounds, down from a 24-point margin in October and a 26-point one in the final polls of the last election. Despite that slide, Biden’s support among white voters without a degree has increased by only one percentage point since October.
One such voter Biden has gained is Samantha Spencer, 29, from Beloit, Wis. “There’s just been so many different things that I’ve been like viscerally disgusted by,” she said. “I’m a Christian and I know a lot of people who are also Christians are still sticking with him, but for my faith I can’t justify supporting this garbage anymore.”
Biden leads among voters 65 and over, reversing a decade-long Republican advantage, but he has made relatively limited gains among voters over age 50 since October, including no gains at all among white voters over age 50 without a college degree. Their relatively conservative attitudes on race and the protests could be part of the reason for the president’s resilience: White voters in the battleground states who are 50 and over oppose the recent demonstrations, and say too many have turned to violent rioting. They are split on whether discrimination against whites is as big a problem as discrimination against minorities, and say that riots are a bigger problem than police treatment of African-Americans by a 10-percentage-point margin.
Perhaps more surprisingly, Biden has also made few to no gains among nonwhite voters, despite the national attention on criminal justice and racism over the last month. Over all in the battlegrounds, Biden leads among black voters by 83 percent to 7 percent, up only slightly from October. Hispanic voters back Biden by 62-26, also essentially unchanged. Neither lead exceeds Clinton’s margin in the final polls from 2016. Biden’s wide lead is a reflection of the president’s weakness rather than of his own strength, but Biden’s standing is nonetheless healthy by most measures. Over all, 50 percent of battleground voters say they have a favorable view of him, compared with 47 percent who have an unfavorable view.
It’s possible that Biden will struggle to match his wide lead in the polls at the ballot box. The battleground voters who don’t back either Biden or Trump tend to tilt Republican, whether by party registration or by affiliation, and some of these voters may return to the president by the end of the race, yet at the moment, 56 percent of these voters disapprove of his performance, while just 29 percent approve.
The results suggest that Biden still has an open path to a sweeping victory. Over all, 55 percent of registered voters in the battleground states said there was at least “some chance” they would support Biden in the election, including 12 percent of Republicans, 11 percent of voters who backed Trump in 2016, and 44 percent of the Republican-tilting undecided voters. As for Trump, 55 percent of registered voters in the battlegrounds said there was “not really any chance” they would vote for him this November.
Don, we hardly knew ye'!
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The Times says he is also going to take the Senate down with him:
"Trump’s Sagging Popularity Drags Down Republican Senate Candidates" by Jonathan Martinand Matt Stevens New York Times, June 25, 2020
WASHINGTON — President Trump’s erratic performance in office and his deteriorating standing in polls are posing a grave threat to his party’s Senate majority, imperiling incumbents in crucial swing states and undermining Republican prospects in one of the few states they had hoped to gain a seat, according to a new poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.
Senator Martha McSally of Arizona, a Republican, trails her Democratic opponent, Mark Kelly, by 9 percentage points while Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina is behind his Democratic rival, Cal Cunningham, by 3. Both incumbents are polling below 40 percent, despite having recently aired a barrage of television advertisements.
Related:
"Taking the stage Wednesday at an anti-mask rally in Scottsdale, Ariz., Republican Councilman Guy Phillips appeared in a black face mask. In a monotone voice, he said, ‘‘I can’t breathe.’’ Then he said it again, louder: ‘‘I can’t breathe’’ — echoing the dying words of George Floyd that have become a rallying cry in nationwide protests against police violence. Then Phillips ripped off the mask, rolled his eyes, and feigned relief as the crowd cheered for him. ‘‘Insanity!’’ he said of the mask mandate. Now he’s facing calls to step down, as critics on both sides of the aisle have condemned his ‘‘callous’’ insult to Floyd’s memory and the nation’s reckoning over racial injustice. Senator Martha McSally, Republican of Arizona, called Phillips’s actions ‘‘despicable.’’
Maybe McSally should step down as well.
In Michigan, which Senate Republicans viewed as one of their few opportunities to go on the offensive this year, Senator Gary Peters, a first-term Democrat, is up by 10 percentage points over John James, who is one of the GOP’s most prized recruits.
The poll showed that the same voters who are fleeing the president — highly educated white Americans, many of them once-reliable Republicans — are providing an advantage to Democratic Senate candidates. Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus and his response to protests over racial justice have made him an underdog against Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, who led the president by 14 percentage points in the Times poll, and in an era when Senate races increasingly mirror the presidential preference of a given state, there is little McSally and Tillis may be able to do to overcome Trump’s drag on their party. The president trails Biden by 7 percentage points in Arizona and 9 in North Carolina. Trump is capturing the support of only 41 percent of Arizona voters and 40 percent of North Carolinians.
That is EXACTLY when he is MOST DANGEROUS!
The president’s prospects are even more dire in Michigan, where the poll shows he is losing to Biden by 11 points, capturing just 36 percent of the vote in a state he narrowly carried four years ago.
Taken together, the three battleground states paint a grim picture for Republicans right now — and suggest that if Trump does not arrest his fall he could hand Democrats control of both the presidency and the Senate next year.
Did you see Tucker's opening monologue last night?
His best ever.
“The election is a referendum on Trump,” said Kirk Adams, a Republican and former Arizona state House speaker. “That could change, but until then, down-ballot Republicans will have to decide if they will ride the Trump train to its final destination or if they need to establish some brand independence.”
We may have peace because the pre$$ hides the wars, but the pillar of prosperity that Trump needed has been demolished.
Jill Cohen, a 52-year-old resident of Tempe, Ariz., who was a Republican until 2016, said she would have a difficult time supporting a Senate candidate who “aligns herself” with Trump and his views. She said she longed for more consensus-oriented lawmakers and would vote for Kelly. The margin of sampling error in the Times/Siena survey for the individual state polls in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina is about 4 percentage points.
The Times survey of battleground states is not the only recent polling that illustrates how the president’s unpopularity is endangering his party’s candidates. A recent Des Moines Register poll in Iowa — which found Trump up by just 1 percentage point in a state he carried by about 10 in 2016 — showed Senator Joni Ernst trailing by 3 points against Theresa Greenfield, a first-time candidate.
If Trump is in trouble in Iowa, his corn is shucked.
Republicans have a 53-47 Senate majority. A pickup of three seats would give Democrats control, if Biden wins and his vice president is able to break a 50-50 tie, but if Doug Jones of Alabama, a rare Democratic senator in the Deep South, loses his reelection in a state that Trump is expected to comfortably carry, Democrats would need to net four seats to take control, yet with Republicans defending a number of competitive seats this year, the majority is now clearly within reach for Democrats. In addition to Arizona, North Carolina, and Iowa, Republicans have vulnerable incumbents in Colorado and Maine, two states that Biden is favored to win.
May God help us all.
Further, two Senate Republicans are facing competitive reelections this year in Georgia, a fast-changing state where surveys have shown Trump effectively tied with Biden, and in Montana, the state’s popular Democratic governor, Steve Bullock, is challenging Senator Steve Daines.
Republicans could still limit the Democrats’ opportunities to pick up seats, especially if Trump stabilizes his standing.
How will he do that with a cratered economy, and it looks like Georgia will be blue this fall.
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What he should do is what all presidents do when they are suffering on the domestic front, go an a foreign trip:
"A spike of more than 1,500 coronavirus infections within days has dealt a sudden blow to Germany’s efforts to reopen the country, calling into question the durability of what had been widely considered a success story in managing the contagion in Europe. The new clusters have been concentrated in slaughterhouses and crowded, low-income apartment blocks, which have been quarantined, but they are generating increasing concern that the infections could break out and spread among the broader public. This week, those concerns spurred the authorities in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia to impose lockdowns in two counties — the first since the country’s broader reopening in May — after hundreds of workers at the Tönnies meatpacking plant in Gütersloh county tested positive for the virus. Neighboring Warendorf county, where many workers live, was the second county locked down. The outbreak at the Tönnies slaughterhouse now stands as one the most severe in Europe, outside of Sweden, according to figures gathered by the European Union. Since then, several hundred workers from two other slaughterhouses have been isolated as well. Hundreds of police and health workers have fanned out over the region to find and test all of the Tönnies plant’s 7,000 workers — many of them seasonal laborers from Eastern Europe who were not properly registered, raising fears it might be hard to stem the outbreaks with a targeted approach, but the rise in cases is not limited to that area. Nationwide, health authorities registered 630 new infections Thursday — hundreds more than the daily total just 10 days ago."
Well, Germany wouldn't have been a good place to go even if they did let him in:
"Secretary of State Mike Pompeo played down concerns Thursday that the European Union might refuse to allow Americans into the 27-nation bloc as it considers lifting restrictions on overseas travelers starting July 1, due to the spread of the coronavirus in the United States....."
He could still go to England, though:
"At least 22 police officers were injured in South London on Wednesday night as they tried to disperse crowds that had gathered for an illegal outdoor party in defiance of coronavirus restrictions, police said. Gatherings of more than six people from separate households are banned in Britain, but hundreds of partygoers had assembled for the block party in the Brixton neighborhood, as the city experienced its hottest day so far this year. The Metropolitan Police, London’s main force, said officers had received several complaints about the party in Brixton on Wednesday night, and tried to encourage the crowd to go home, but “the event continued and more officers attended the scene and the group became hostile toward officers.” Footage shared on social media showed the scene devolve into chaos as officers and partygoers faced off. In total, 22 officers were injured, according to police, none of them seriously."
I'm so glad crime levels in Britain are fabulously low!
Related:
"The Supreme Court ruled Thursday that asylum seekers who are turned down by immigration officials do not have a right to make their case to a judge, a win for the Trump administration and its desire to quickly deport people who enter the United States illegally. The ruling was 7-2, although the usual undercurrents of an ideological divide on the court were present. Two of the court’s liberals dissented, and the other two agreed only with the outcome in the specific case....."
It was Alito, writing for the majority, and while it’s been clear for a while that President Trump is a one-trick pony when it comes to immigration, the president is taking full advantage of the coronavirus pandemic to further his restrictionist immigration agenda just as the pre$$ is taking full advantage of COVID-19 to push the Great Global Reset.
"A half-year into the most momentous pandemic in decades, it’s hard to imagine that anyone, anywhere, has not heard of the coronavirus, but scores of migrants arriving in Somalia tell United Nations workers every day that they are unaware of COVID-19. The migrants are often young men from rural parts of neighboring Ethiopia. Most have no education, and some are from communities where Internet access is low, said Celeste Sanchez Bean, a program manager with the UN agency based in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, told the Associated Press. She doubted that anything had been lost in translation. In past interviews, many migrants were not even aware that a war was being waged in Yemen, the next step on their journey, she said. Bean said she is heartened that the number of those unaware of COVID-19 has been dropping over the dozen weeks that the question has been asked. Anyone who is unaware of the coronavirus is given a short explanation of the pandemic, including how the virus is contracted and descriptions of the symptoms and preventative measures. What worries Bean now are the findings of a new project mapping the migrant route through Somalia, a country destabilized by decades of conflict, and merging it with epidemiological data showing coronavirus infections. Somalia, with one of the world’s weakest health systems, now has more than 2,800 cases....."
Would increased airstrikes help, and what is the percentage of cases relative to the population of Somalia, huh?
Now roll up your sleeve:
"Governments around the world should “remove all obstacles” to swift and equitable distribution of any successful vaccine, including by making all intellectual property and technologies immediately available, African countries said Thursday. The call from the African Union was Africa’s most assertive one yet for a “people’s vaccine” made available to everyone, even as rich countries like the United States make deals with manufacturers. Using language that might put the pharmaceutical industry on alert, the African Union’s new communique specifically mentions the Doha Declaration on public health by World Trade Organization members in 2001, which refers to the right to grant compulsory licenses. The statement comes as the coronavirus spreads rapidly in Africa, with more than 337,000 confirmed cases."
At last, a place for Trump to alight:
"Israel announced a new partnership with the United Arab Emirates on Thursday to cooperate in the fight against the coronavirus, the latest advance in the Jewish state’s efforts to build stronger ties with Arab states. The partnership, announced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, would represent a significant step toward normalization between two key US allies in the Middle East. Emirati officials did not immediately comment. The announcement, which fell well short of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations, comes at a time when Israel is drawing up plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank, a move that Arab countries, including the Emirates, have said would thwart the improved relationships. Netanyahu has vowed to annex up to 30 percent of the occupied West Bank as soon as July 1, a move that much of the world views as a violation of international law and a new barrier to the establishment of a future Palestinian state."
He will be dining on lobster during his visit, with some classical music on in the background as they talk about Russia, Twitter, or the new book by President Trump’s niece.
{@@##$$%%^^&&}
Another part of Trump's legacy that will be long-lasting is the END of $PORTS:
NFL training camps still on original schedule for late July
Of course, they cancelled the Hall of Fame game and induction ceremonies, and players are still concerned about risks even if things feel almost normal again.
I predict they take a knee just before kickoff and cancel the season.
Then it will be time for some real football:
Rugby final rescheduled
World Cup draw delayed
FIFA to give clubs money
The club that gets the most will be considered the title winner, and I'm positive there will be no NBA or NHL champ crowned this year.
Nor will there be baseball, what with the daunting challenge of racism to spare us the sight.
That only leaves racing for spectators:
New Hampshire Motor Speedway will allow fans
Btw, we are now being told the noose was real.
Related:
"Google says it will start paying some publishers for their news content, in a move that could pave the way for reduced tensions between the Internet search giant and the beleagured news industry. The company said Thursday that it plans to launch this year a licensing program to pay publishers for “high-quality content.’’ The program will start with local and national publications in Germany, Australia, and Brazil, ‘‘with more to come soon,’’ Brad Bender, vice president of product management, said in a blog post."
I can't imagine why the lying, agenda-pushing, war-promoting distorters of the new$ indu$try would be beleaguered, can you?
It's like they made their own noo$e!
