Sunday, January 1, 2012

Predicting a Rigged Election

You don't need to be Nostradamus to see it. 

And it all begins in Iowa:

"The elections predictor" December 30, 2011|By Edward L. Glaeser

For 2012, the electronic prediction markets suggest that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, Barack Obama will win the general election, and Republicans will control both the House and Senate....

Economists at the University of Iowa started the original electronic election markets. Twelve years ago, Intrade entered and became a larger political gambling venue....

Prediction markets can be briefly manipulated, and they suffer the same waves of erroneous group-think that can afflict any market, but their overall track record is pretty solid.

Economists Paul W. Rohde and Koleman S. Strumpf report that “in the 15 elections between 1884 and 1940, the mid-October betting favorite won 11 times (73 percent) and the underdog won only once.’’

Economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz find that in the presidential elections between 1988 and 2000, the average presidential vote share predicted by the Iowa markets thirty days out was less than two percentage points off, which is better than the final Gallup poll forecasts.

Both the Iowa markets and Intrade similarly depict America’s political future....

Not always.

"In the Iowa Electronics Markets, where 'investors'... wager real moolah on election outcome 'contracts,' Bush led consistently for months before the election.... But a 7 p.m. CST on Nov. 2, 76.6 percent of the last hour's traders had gone to Kerry, with only 20.1 percent plunking their bucks down on Bush. They knew something."  

Of course, that stolen election really didn't matter that much considering the choices (and Obama's performance after winning the next one four years later), and no one in AmeriKa even talks about it anymore.

--more--"  

Update:

"Ohio.... the state that no GOP nominee has ever reached the White House without winning. Their enthusiastic turnout to vote for George W. Bush by 2-to-1 margins in 2004 is credited with delivering Ohio to clinch his re-election.

--source--"

Yes, even the AmeriKan media ignore vote fraud.