"Candidates to narrow focus on 5 to 10 swing states" by Matt Viser, Christopher Rowland and Michael Kranish | Globe Staff, September 09, 2012
GREENSBORO, N.C. — “I would actually be surprised if Obama carries the state this time.”
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Five to 10 swing states that analysts predict are likely to decide the election....
And I'm not in one.
a sliver of voters who are undecided....
I'm not. I'm voting Nader -- again.
The path that each candidate sees to winning the White House can be measured in dollars.
I knew votes didn't matter.
The campaigns and super PACs that support them are pouring millions of dollars into a handful of key states including Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Wisconsin, where the candidates are roughly even, while spending little recently on television advertisement in places that are borderline competitive, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, where Obama leads in the polls.
I find the amounts disgusting when you consider how the American people are suffering.
While campaigns often hold off spending in some states until they are confident the dollars can be used effectively, the reality is the presidential campaign will hardly exist — at least in terms of candidate appearances and advertising dollars — in the vast majority of the country....
As if the newspaper knew anything about reality. It certainly isn't coming through in their reporting. The reality is a campaign hardly does exist. Both candidates will continue to allow Wall Street and Israel to call the shots.
The president’s campaign, meanwhile, has sought to change the question from a referendum on the economy — which the Obama campaign fears he would lose — to a choice between two different visions about how to go forward. At the same time, the Obama campaign is trying to expand its pool of potential voters by focusing on social issues such as abortion in an effort to win over younger voters and women who otherwise might be unhappy with his handling of the economy.
No disrespect intended, and I understand the issue is important to certain groups; however, without addressing the economy and the empire these other issues are distracting window-dressing -- especially when they continue unresolved through rule by both parties (hmmmmm?).
The number of swing states is a matter of judgment. Some analysts put the number at 10 or higher, but others say fewer are in play. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said there are eight swing states and has predicted that Virginia is likely to decide the race.
Sabato's self-serving self-importance?
(Of course, when I start doing the math on the map he may well be right)
In the wake of Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate, Sabato added Wisconsin to his list of swing states.
“In my view it is likely that 42 states are over,” Sabato said.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the race is even more limited, counting only five swing states, allocating Iowa to Romney and New Hampshire to Obama, even though the polls are close in both.
Actually, it looks like Romney wins New Hampshire.
Paleologos said the five competitive states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado. He said third-party candidates in two of those states — Virgil Goode, former US Representative in Virginia, and Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico, in Colorado — could be factors if the race is decided by a small margin.
Translation: The FIXED RESULT is ALREADY IN!
Registration of new voters could be key....
The undecided voters at the diner remain up for grabs despite the conventions and the coverage and the advertising dollars. Dave Lane, a 30-year-old banker from Winston Salem, said aside from catching a portion of Clinton’s speech he didn’t see much of the conventions.
Neither did I: A Disgusting Democratic Convention
Although he voted for Senator John McCain, a Republican, four years ago, he’s not sure who he’ll vote for this time. “To me, Republicans have bad ideas and Democrats don’t have any ideas,” he said. “It is what it is.”
That's my attitude about work.
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"Poll paints picture of entrenched middle-class, female voters in swing states" by Allison Kopicki and Jim Rutenberg | New York Times, August 08, 2012
NEW YORK — For all of the Democratic attacks painting Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch elitist who will help the rich at the expense of the middle class, he is maintaining the traditional — and sizable — Republican advantage among a politically vital constituency, white working-class voters in the states most likely to decide the presidential election.
And despite concerted Republican efforts to use the weak economy to drive a wedge between President Obama and female voters, the president is holding on to their crucial support in most battleground states.
Those findings, contained in the latest batch of Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News swing state polls, highlight the stubborn divisions of this year’s presidential race among two of the most important voting groups in the most hotly contested states.
But they also help explain the intense efforts of the two campaigns to alter the balance in both groups, which together will go a long way toward determining the outcome....
Translation: the gender divide will decide election.
While the poll suggests Romney is making inroads among women in Colorado, where he is also showing strength against Obama by several other measures, support for Obama among women has otherwise held up in the battleground state.
I can't make sense of these contradictory s*** polls anymore.
Related: Women Like the Look of Romney
Well, he is a handsome-looking man.
Far more than national polls, which can track the mood of the electorate only as a whole, the results in the state-by-state polls provide a detailed snapshot of the race where it matters most, in geography and demography. They also help explain why both the Obama and Romney campaigns are focusing so much of their time and money on messages intended to resonate with such specific groups in such specific places.
The latest polls underscore just how tight the race continues to be, with the candidates running closely in Virginia and Colorado and Obama leading in Wisconsin, although not by his double-digit margin of victory in 2008. Obama won all three states in 2008.
Obama is struggling because of the economy and facing new challenges in Colorado, where his support among white men has fallen considerably from where it was in exit polls there in 2008.
Isn't it amazing that the only time the exits polls were ever wrong in an election (foreign or domestic) was the 2004 AmeriKan presidential election?
Oh well, down the memory hole.
But Romney is also struggling to connect with middle-class voters. And about half of voters in each of the three states said presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns (Romney has so far refused to release more than two years of returns amid calls by Democrats and even Republicans for more).
Combined with the surveys last week in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the new state polls paint a portrait of an electorate that has largely made up its mind but sees both candidates as having vulnerabilities — giving each side opportunities to exploit.
Meaning there is still time to rig.
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"Mitt Romney is close to President Obama in national polls but trailing on almost every analyst’s electoral college map....
But he can still win.
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Voters in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin overwhelmingly favor traditional Medicare over the voucher program proposed by the Republican presidential ticket, but Mitt Romney has made slight overall gains in recent weeks, according to a New York Times/CBS News/Quinnipiac University poll published Thursday....
Florida: Obama 49 percent to 46 percent
Wisconsin: Romney trailing 49 percent to 47 percent.
Ohio has not changed: Obama led Romney, 50 percent to 44 percent.
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"Ohio delegates at center of convention attention" Bloomberg News, September 07, 2012
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — They are at ground zero for the presidential race and responsible for President Obama’s reelection....
I find the choice of terms there offensive.
The battleground of 11.5 million residents, the seventh-largest state, put President George W. Bush over the top for reelection in 2004 and helped elect Obama in 2008 with 51.5 percent of the vote. Republicans took control of the governor’s office with John Kasich in 2010, and other statewide executive offices. The jobless rate in the Buckeye State was 7.2 percent in July, the lowest since September 2008.
Meaning whoever is awarded Ohio will be president.
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Related:
GOP convention puts presidential rivals in a tie, poll finds
Obama rises in polls after convention
He got a bigger bounce.
And he also has a critical group behind him:
"Obama leads Romney among voters not likely to vote" by Callum Borchers | Globe Correspondent, August 15, 2012
They represent 44 percent of the electorate and back President Obama 2 to 1 over Mitt Romney, but they are unlikely to make a difference on Election Day.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll published Wednesday shows Obama leads his Republican challenger by a wide margin among registered voters who say they probably won’t cast ballots this fall....
Then why are they being polled?
Reasons not to vote ranged from not liking either candidate to believing a vote does not matter....
Who can blame the American public for feeling this way after years of neglect and inattention?
Those who WILL be casting ballots:
"Obama’s costly investment not yielding new voters" by Brian C. Mooney | Globe Staff, August 16, 2012
In stark contrast to 2008, when a strong partisan tailwind propelled Democratic voter registration to record levels, this year Republican and independent gains are far outpacing those of Democrats.
Uh-oh.
In Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada — tossup states where direct election-year comparisons could be drawn — the numbers are striking....
Then they all go read, don't they?
The Obama campaign downplayed the Globe’s findings....
The ranks of unaffiliated voters have been growing and Republicans have been enjoying electoral success since Obama’s election. In the 2010 midterm elections, the GOP gained 63 seats and control of the House of Representatives. In 2009 and 2010, Republicans wrested seven governorships from Democrats in battleground states, all carried by Obama four years ago.
Perhaps the most dramatic reversal has occurred in Iowa, a quadrennial tossup state which launched the Obama candidacy in the 2008 caucuses and which he won that November by 9 points. Republicans this year ended the Democrats’ six-year registration advantage. Since the leadoff caucuses in January, Democratic registration this year has dropped by 45,228, while GOP registration has increased by 5,671.
Some Democrats say voters who are officially categorized as inactive will, once added to active voter lists, allow Democrats to maintain a slight registration edge. Inactive voters are still eligible to vote.
That doesn't mean they will, but at least Obama is ahead with those who won't be voting (sigh).
Many voters were designated inactive after precincts and districts were redrawn based on the 2010 Census, and their notifications were returned as undeliverable, said Chad Olsen, spokesman for the Iowa secretary of state’s office.
But Olsen was not sure that would significantly increase Democratic totals. “I’m not sure why Democrats would be excited about the number of inactive voters they have. Most of them have moved,” he said....
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"In Romney’s swing state shuffle, Wisconsin becomes focus" Associated Press, September 13, 2012
WASHINGTON — Michigan and Pennsylvania are out; Wisconsin is in.
Related: Why Obama Loses Pennsylvania
Mitt just conceded.
The presidential campaign has become a contest that will be decided in as few as nine states, creating a narrower and less forgiving path for Republican Mitt Romney to secure the 270 electoral college votes he needs to oust President Obama....
The Republican’s 15 commercials, which carry messages tailored to each region, are airing in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado....
Both sides have settled on the same nine states, which have a combined 110 electoral votes. In this environment, Obama could secure reelection just by winning Florida and one of the remaining eight battleground states....
What if he doesn't win Florida?
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Not that it really means anything, but in a fair election Obama would win. That is simply my read on the mood of the American people at this point.
