CORNISH, Maine — A narrow 2009 loss....
Also see: Maine Makes MSM Monitor Happy
Now I just don't care anymore.
Nationwide, gay marriage proponents have never prevailed at the ballot box on a question that would legalize same-sex marriage. But on Nov. 6, Maine, along with Maryland and Washington, could make history, with recent polls showing the pro-gay-marriage side ahead in those states as well.
If all were to embrace same-sex marriage, the tally of states where it is legal would rise to nine, in addition to the District of Columbia.
Opponents in Maine say the polls are likely inaccurate because supporters of same-sex marriage have framed the issue as one of fairness and equality, making respondents less likely to share their opinion and more likely to say they are undecided.
“Historically, without a doubt, an undecided vote is a vote for traditional marriage,” said Carroll Conley, cochairman of Protect Marriage Maine. The group’s internal polling shows a win for his side, he said.
Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine, said the phenomenon is known by academics as the “social desirability effect.” “People know what the politically correct answer is and they are more likely to give that answer,” he said.
Still, Brewer added, “there has been real opinion change” in the short time since Maine’s 2009 vote. He noted that proponents have conducted a highly coordinated grass-roots canvassing effort — with supporters talking face-to-face with more than 200,000 Mainers in three years, according to Mainers United for Marriage.
“That kind of face-to-face interaction is fostering attitude change,” Brewer said.
Conley asserted, however, there is no evidence that approach is working. “We don’t like to use the word confident, but I’ll be surprised if we lose,” he said.
In addition to Maryland and Washington, where voters are set to weigh in on recent legislation approving gay marriage, voters in Minnesota will decide whether to support a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.
Maine’s ballot question represents the first time that supporters of gay marriage — and not opponents — have brought the issue to voters. In the six states that permit it — Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont — it has been legislatively or judicially enacted.
The rejection of same-sex marriage by Mainers in 2009 was a major blow for supporters who were seeking to regain momentum after California voters rejected gay marriage in 2008. Expectations ran high that same-sex marriage would survive in Maine, where supporters thought they would benefit from more volunteers, more money, and a strong libertarian strain running through the electorate....
But Ron Paul didn't win any votes up there.
But Ron Paul didn't win any votes up there.
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Related:
You guys happy now?
