"Unaligned N.H. vote a test for Romney; Independents could change the momentum in GOP" by Sarah Schweitzer Globe Staff / December 27, 2011
FREEDOM, N.H.- Bill Sindoni, 59, a semiretired construction worker originally from Woburn and also an independent, said no one is offering what he would like to hear, which is a lift of taxes from everyone 65 and older.
“I’m not leaning toward anyone - but, well, maybe Ron Paul,’’ Sindoni said, echoing a common refrain among independents.
Paul fares better with independents in New Hampshire than with registered Republicans. According to the UNH Survey Center/Boston Globe poll, 25 percent of independents favor Paul, placing him in second place for them behind Romney....
But he can't win the presidency, blah, blah, blah. Watching the
Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, said independents are more likely to vote for a candidate like Paul because the man is viewed as an outsider to the mainstream Republican Party....
So how can they give Ron Paul a trim, huh?
In the end, though, independents’ ability to boost Paul may be limited because turnout among Democratic-leaning and unaligned independent voters in a Republican primary tends to be lower than among Republican-leaning independents, who now favor Romney.
Indeed, higher turnout among independents who lean toward the political party holding a primary helps explain why independent voters historically have voted the way of registered-party voters, Smith said.
An exception was 2000, when independent voters in the Democratic primary backed Bill Bradley while registered Democrats backed Al Gore, according to exit polls. On the Republican side that year, independents backed John McCain, as did registered Republicans.
“They helped make up the magnitude of McCain’s win, but they didn’t determine his win,’’ Smith said.
Yet other political observers note that it was just that - the magnitude of McCain’s win, delivered by independents - that elevated his candidacy.
“The New Hampshire primary is an expectation game. So in that sense the independents shaped the perception of what the totals meant,’’ said Linda Fowler, a Dartmouth College government professor.
Fowler pointed to the 1968 Democratic primary in which President Lyndon Johnson won, but only seven points ahead of Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota. Shortly thereafter, Johnson opted not to seek reelection.
If Romney pulled out a meager win, she said, “you could see Paul or Gingrich looking for crowing rights: ‘We came close to upsetting Romney on his home turf.’ ’’
Perhaps the biggest wild card among independents is their unreliability....
Should Paul take a convincing first place in the Iowa caucuses - where some polls have him first - the win could strengthen support among New Hampshire independents, particularly those already leaning toward him, said Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political science professor.
Then Ron Paul must be denied Iowa.
If they voted for Paul in large enough numbers to vault him into second place, Gingrich would be pushed down to third, or perhaps fourth place - delivering a blow to him as he heads into the South Carolina primary.
“Then all the Republicans in South Carolina will say, ‘Gingrich is done and it’s either Romney or Paul, who I don’t like at all,’ ’’ Scala said. “Then it’s a big plus for Romney.’’
The Mormon winning in conservative Christian South Carolina?
And Gingrich is already done.
On the other hand, Smith pointed out that New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate than Iowa Republicans and have rarely followed the lead of the caucuses - doing so only twice in recent memory, in 1992, when George H.W. Bush won the New Hampshire primary after winning the caucuses and in 1976, when Gerald Ford won both....
Meaning the vote is already rigged for Romney or Ron Paul and will fall flat.
--more--"
"On candidates, N.H. evangelicals finding little unity; Many distrustful of Romney, wary of Gingrich history" by Shira Schoenberg | Globe Correspondent, December 28, 2011
David Ridge believes abortion is an “abomination’’ and gay marriage is “unnatural.’’ He votes Republican because “I believe in personal responsibility, accountability to the creator, and accountability to mankind.’’
The chiropractor and fundamentalist Christian from Keene, N.H., is a member of the “NewtHampshire Faithful’’ a multifaith coalition of supporters of former House speaker Newt Gingrich. “We’re needing someone that has true vision, integrity, and is a constitutionalist,’’ Ridge said.
The 2012 presidential race is notable for the number of candidates actively appealing to fundamentalist voters — and the inability of voters to coalesce around any of them. The trend holds true in New Hampshire, which holds the nation’s first primary Jan. 10.
The top-polling candidates in New Hampshire are Gingrich, Romney, and Representative Ron Paul of Texas. But some evangelical Christians are distrustful of Romney’s Mormon faith or turned off by Gingrich’s personal history. The candidates who have talked most about faith — Texas Governor Rick Perry, Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania — tend to fall short in other areas, such as electability. There is no one with the strong appeal to conservative evangelicals that former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister, had in 2008.
Related: Sunday Globe Special: Ron Paul's Crazy Christian Supporters
WTF, Globe?
“I don’t think there’s been a candidate that meets their ideal standard, of having a strong marriage, some sort of Christian background, and a conservative track record,’’ said the Rev. David Pinckney, pastor of the River of Grace Church in Concord.
Ron Paul?
Faith-related issues are not as important in New Hampshire as in other early voting states. A 2008 Gallup poll ranked New Hampshire as the second-least religious state in the country.
Fair enough.
About 11 percent of the population in New Hampshire and Vermont is affiliated with the evangelical Protestant tradition, compared with 26 percent nationally, according to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, whose data combine the two states. But those voters lean heavily Republican.
Polling by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center this fall found 17 to 20 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters consider themselves evangelical. Unlike most other New Hampshire voters, evangelicals often cite social issues, such as abortion or gay marriage, as major concerns.
Nationally and in New Hampshire, the conservative evangelical vote has generally mirrored the Republican electorate. But Pew Research Center polling found one exception — white evangelicals were slightly less likely to support Romney in the Republican primary.
If elected, Romney, a former Mormon stake president (a rank similar to a Catholic bishop), could be the first president also ordained as a religious leader, though President James Garfield was a preacher.
But the Pew poll found some evangelical voters are not comfortable with Romney’s Mormon faith, with a majority of evangelicals saying Mormonism is not a Christian religion.
Yet at the same time, evangelical voters have a complicated relationship with Gingrich, who was married three times and admitted to infidelity. But he converted to Catholicism and has said he made mistakes. His conversion resonates with some.
“Especially in the evangelical community, there’s a recognition that everybody makes mistakes and no one is perfect,’’ said the Rev. Brian Foreman, pastor of Cornerstone Community Church in Concord. “I think there’s a difference between someone who’s trying to hide their past . . . as opposed to someone whose history is known, and in biblical terms has been repented of, acknowledged and gone on.’’
Perry, a Methodist, recently emphasized his faith in a television ad in Iowa, which opened, “I’m not ashamed to admit that I’m a Christian,’’ and concluded, “Faith made America strong. It can make her strong again.’’ Santorum, a Catholic, went on a “Faith, Family and Freedom’’ tour. Bachmann, a Lutheran, has talked about faith as a driving force in her life.
Can we get away from the religion for a minute. We are electing a president, not a Pope.
But voters generally have not coalesced around any of those candidates, who are polling in the single digits. And evangelicals are swayed by the same concerns as other voters.
“While I appreciate the personal testimonies of some of those people, I’m looking for larger concerns about who’s going to be able to win, who’s going be able to withstand the withering negative attacks they will face, and make the case to the entire country about where we need to go as a country,’’ said Foreman, who is undecided.
Paul Nagy, the former Northeast regional coordinator for the Christian Coalition and 1992 New Hampshire campaign manager for presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, said he is disappointed with Congress and sees Bachmann and Santorum as “part of the problem.’’ “I did like Governor Perry before he started to open his mouth and before he said what he did on the immigration issue,’’ Nagy said, referring to Perry’s support for in-state tuition for children of illegal immigrants. Romney isn’t conservative enough for him, Gingrich is too “establishment,’’ and Paul “too far off the reservation.’’
Nagy doesn’t know for whom he will vote. “My candidate, whoever he or she is, has not come to the surface yet,’’ he said.
--more--"
Also see: The Globe's Invisible Ink: Ron Paul in New Hampshire
Sunday Globe Special: Ron Paul Rising in New Hampshire
Losing Faith in the Boston Globe
Which brings us to Iowa:
"Caucuses are a test for Iowa" by Scot Lehigh | Globe Columnist, December 28, 2011
Finally, there’s Ron Paul, who sits at or near the top of a divided field, even as renewed focus on racially tinged newsletters once sent under his name have raised serious questions about both his views and his candor.
Related: Black Americans DO NOT Believe Ron Paul Is Racist
New Information Discredits “Racist” Media Smear Campaign Against Ron Paul
Eric Dondero (cited by Weekly Standard in Ron Paul smear article) is a Leftist and a Leftist Lover
"Eric Dondero aka Eric Dondero Rittberg is a self-described libertarian who supported Giuliani, which suggests that he infiltrated Ron Paul's campaign to be an agent provocateur, a role which was discovered resulting in his termination. Dondero is not at all well regarded on the blog-o-sphere and actually ran AGAINST Ron Paul in 2007! Eric has a long history of support for Zionist causes. Eric Dondero Rittberg blogs constantly preaching hate and intolerance against Muslims, and infiltrates in order to disrupt libertarian groups and events. In other words, Eric Dondero Rittberg is just the sort of "desperate for attention" person Weekly Standard would have to use to try to smear Ron Paul. And while we are on the subject of Ron Paul's alleged racism, will nobody in the corporate media have the courage to comment on the overt racism against Muslims being espoused by all the other candidates? -- Wake the Flock Up
And the Globe picked it up?
Paul can rightly claim to be winning converts to his libertarian cause. But for all the much-praised consistency of his positions, those same views frequently wander into the realm of the outdated, the impractical, or the downright absurd.
It’s impossible to imagine the 76-year-old libertarian becoming president.
No it's not: Election Night 2008
It’s almost as hard to imagine him becoming the GOP nominee. Should he win here, it will merely defer the GOP’s real decision - and signal that, once again, Iowa is marching to a different drummer.
Yeah, even if he wins he's not the winner.
--more--"
More: WTF?! Today Show 12/28/11 - Chuck Todd "Who ever Comes in Second, not named Ron Paul in Iowa is the REAL Winner" MSNBC site - has "Paul Bearers" under Ron Paul's profile to subliminally affect people's thoughts of Paul
Iowa GOP moving vote-count to 'undisclosed location'
Latest NY Times Iowa projection shows Ron Paul with 60% chance of winning ... unless the GOP steals it for Romney
Thus we get this:
"Mitt Romney tops CNN poll for Iowa" by Matt Viser, Globe Staff
CLINTON, Iowa – Mitt Romney has jumped to the top of a new CNN-Time poll in Iowa, putting him in the lead just six days before voters make their selection and raising expectations for a campaign that has spent the past year trying to tamp them down.
Twenty-five percent of likely caucus-goers said they would vote for the former Massachusetts governor, compared with 22 percent for Representative Ron Paul; 16 percent for former Senator Rick Santorum, of Pennsylvania; and 14 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
The poll signifies a deep drop in support for Gingrich, who led the poll at 33 percent just three weeks earlier. It also shows a rapid rise for Santorum, who was at 5 percent in the previous CNN poll....
Translation: They are simply MAKING UP NUMBERS and thinking YOU WILL BUY ANY PILE of BS they throw in front of you!!
The poll – and large crowd sizes Romney has been drawing throughout the day – indicates that he could be in a position to win Iowa, a state that has been vexing for him after he lost in 2008. He has kept the state at arm’s length this year, making few trips as his advisers downplay his chances....
But somehow Iowans have warmed to him overnight!
--more--"
Related: Romney criticizes Paul's stance on dealing with Iran
Also see: Globe Guarantees Ron Paul Win in Iowa
The Israeli Defense Firm That Tallies The Iowa Caucus
Globe Unexcited About Iowa
I'll bet they are now.
Paul fares better with independents in New Hampshire than with registered Republicans. According to the UNH Survey Center/Boston Globe poll, 25 percent of independents favor Paul, placing him in second place for them behind Romney....
But he can't win the presidency, blah, blah, blah. Watching the
Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, said independents are more likely to vote for a candidate like Paul because the man is viewed as an outsider to the mainstream Republican Party....
So how can they give Ron Paul a trim, huh?
In the end, though, independents’ ability to boost Paul may be limited because turnout among Democratic-leaning and unaligned independent voters in a Republican primary tends to be lower than among Republican-leaning independents, who now favor Romney.
Indeed, higher turnout among independents who lean toward the political party holding a primary helps explain why independent voters historically have voted the way of registered-party voters, Smith said.
An exception was 2000, when independent voters in the Democratic primary backed Bill Bradley while registered Democrats backed Al Gore, according to exit polls. On the Republican side that year, independents backed John McCain, as did registered Republicans.
“They helped make up the magnitude of McCain’s win, but they didn’t determine his win,’’ Smith said.
Yet other political observers note that it was just that - the magnitude of McCain’s win, delivered by independents - that elevated his candidacy.
“The New Hampshire primary is an expectation game. So in that sense the independents shaped the perception of what the totals meant,’’ said Linda Fowler, a Dartmouth College government professor.
Fowler pointed to the 1968 Democratic primary in which President Lyndon Johnson won, but only seven points ahead of Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota. Shortly thereafter, Johnson opted not to seek reelection.
If Romney pulled out a meager win, she said, “you could see Paul or Gingrich looking for crowing rights: ‘We came close to upsetting Romney on his home turf.’ ’’
Perhaps the biggest wild card among independents is their unreliability....
Should Paul take a convincing first place in the Iowa caucuses - where some polls have him first - the win could strengthen support among New Hampshire independents, particularly those already leaning toward him, said Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political science professor.
Then Ron Paul must be denied Iowa.
If they voted for Paul in large enough numbers to vault him into second place, Gingrich would be pushed down to third, or perhaps fourth place - delivering a blow to him as he heads into the South Carolina primary.
“Then all the Republicans in South Carolina will say, ‘Gingrich is done and it’s either Romney or Paul, who I don’t like at all,’ ’’ Scala said. “Then it’s a big plus for Romney.’’
The Mormon winning in conservative Christian South Carolina?
And Gingrich is already done.
On the other hand, Smith pointed out that New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate than Iowa Republicans and have rarely followed the lead of the caucuses - doing so only twice in recent memory, in 1992, when George H.W. Bush won the New Hampshire primary after winning the caucuses and in 1976, when Gerald Ford won both....
Meaning the vote is already rigged for Romney or Ron Paul and will fall flat.
--more--"
"On candidates, N.H. evangelicals finding little unity; Many distrustful of Romney, wary of Gingrich history" by Shira Schoenberg | Globe Correspondent, December 28, 2011
David Ridge believes abortion is an “abomination’’ and gay marriage is “unnatural.’’ He votes Republican because “I believe in personal responsibility, accountability to the creator, and accountability to mankind.’’
The chiropractor and fundamentalist Christian from Keene, N.H., is a member of the “NewtHampshire Faithful’’ a multifaith coalition of supporters of former House speaker Newt Gingrich. “We’re needing someone that has true vision, integrity, and is a constitutionalist,’’ Ridge said.
But for every evangelical like Ridge, it seems there is another like Sue Englund, a retired garden center owner and social worker from Dunbarton, N.H., who likes former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. “Gingrich has not exhibited admirable moral qualities,’’ Englund said, referring to the candidate’s past marital infidelity.
The top-polling candidates in New Hampshire are Gingrich, Romney, and Representative Ron Paul of Texas. But some evangelical Christians are distrustful of Romney’s Mormon faith or turned off by Gingrich’s personal history. The candidates who have talked most about faith — Texas Governor Rick Perry, Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania — tend to fall short in other areas, such as electability. There is no one with the strong appeal to conservative evangelicals that former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister, had in 2008.
Related: Sunday Globe Special: Ron Paul's Crazy Christian Supporters
WTF, Globe?
“I don’t think there’s been a candidate that meets their ideal standard, of having a strong marriage, some sort of Christian background, and a conservative track record,’’ said the Rev. David Pinckney, pastor of the River of Grace Church in Concord.
Ron Paul?
Faith-related issues are not as important in New Hampshire as in other early voting states. A 2008 Gallup poll ranked New Hampshire as the second-least religious state in the country.
Fair enough.
About 11 percent of the population in New Hampshire and Vermont is affiliated with the evangelical Protestant tradition, compared with 26 percent nationally, according to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, whose data combine the two states. But those voters lean heavily Republican.
Polling by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center this fall found 17 to 20 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters consider themselves evangelical. Unlike most other New Hampshire voters, evangelicals often cite social issues, such as abortion or gay marriage, as major concerns.
Nationally and in New Hampshire, the conservative evangelical vote has generally mirrored the Republican electorate. But Pew Research Center polling found one exception — white evangelicals were slightly less likely to support Romney in the Republican primary.
If elected, Romney, a former Mormon stake president (a rank similar to a Catholic bishop), could be the first president also ordained as a religious leader, though President James Garfield was a preacher.
But the Pew poll found some evangelical voters are not comfortable with Romney’s Mormon faith, with a majority of evangelicals saying Mormonism is not a Christian religion.
Yet at the same time, evangelical voters have a complicated relationship with Gingrich, who was married three times and admitted to infidelity. But he converted to Catholicism and has said he made mistakes. His conversion resonates with some.
“Especially in the evangelical community, there’s a recognition that everybody makes mistakes and no one is perfect,’’ said the Rev. Brian Foreman, pastor of Cornerstone Community Church in Concord. “I think there’s a difference between someone who’s trying to hide their past . . . as opposed to someone whose history is known, and in biblical terms has been repented of, acknowledged and gone on.’’
Perry, a Methodist, recently emphasized his faith in a television ad in Iowa, which opened, “I’m not ashamed to admit that I’m a Christian,’’ and concluded, “Faith made America strong. It can make her strong again.’’ Santorum, a Catholic, went on a “Faith, Family and Freedom’’ tour. Bachmann, a Lutheran, has talked about faith as a driving force in her life.
Can we get away from the religion for a minute. We are electing a president, not a Pope.
But voters generally have not coalesced around any of those candidates, who are polling in the single digits. And evangelicals are swayed by the same concerns as other voters.
“While I appreciate the personal testimonies of some of those people, I’m looking for larger concerns about who’s going to be able to win, who’s going be able to withstand the withering negative attacks they will face, and make the case to the entire country about where we need to go as a country,’’ said Foreman, who is undecided.
Paul Nagy, the former Northeast regional coordinator for the Christian Coalition and 1992 New Hampshire campaign manager for presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, said he is disappointed with Congress and sees Bachmann and Santorum as “part of the problem.’’ “I did like Governor Perry before he started to open his mouth and before he said what he did on the immigration issue,’’ Nagy said, referring to Perry’s support for in-state tuition for children of illegal immigrants. Romney isn’t conservative enough for him, Gingrich is too “establishment,’’ and Paul “too far off the reservation.’’
Nagy doesn’t know for whom he will vote. “My candidate, whoever he or she is, has not come to the surface yet,’’ he said.
--more--"
Also see: The Globe's Invisible Ink: Ron Paul in New Hampshire
Sunday Globe Special: Ron Paul Rising in New Hampshire
Losing Faith in the Boston Globe
Which brings us to Iowa:
"Caucuses are a test for Iowa" by Scot Lehigh | Globe Columnist, December 28, 2011
Finally, there’s Ron Paul, who sits at or near the top of a divided field, even as renewed focus on racially tinged newsletters once sent under his name have raised serious questions about both his views and his candor.
Related: Black Americans DO NOT Believe Ron Paul Is Racist
New Information Discredits “Racist” Media Smear Campaign Against Ron Paul
Eric Dondero (cited by Weekly Standard in Ron Paul smear article) is a Leftist and a Leftist Lover
"Eric Dondero aka Eric Dondero Rittberg is a self-described libertarian who supported Giuliani, which suggests that he infiltrated Ron Paul's campaign to be an agent provocateur, a role which was discovered resulting in his termination. Dondero is not at all well regarded on the blog-o-sphere and actually ran AGAINST Ron Paul in 2007! Eric has a long history of support for Zionist causes. Eric Dondero Rittberg blogs constantly preaching hate and intolerance against Muslims, and infiltrates in order to disrupt libertarian groups and events. In other words, Eric Dondero Rittberg is just the sort of "desperate for attention" person Weekly Standard would have to use to try to smear Ron Paul. And while we are on the subject of Ron Paul's alleged racism, will nobody in the corporate media have the courage to comment on the overt racism against Muslims being espoused by all the other candidates? -- Wake the Flock Up
And the Globe picked it up?
Paul can rightly claim to be winning converts to his libertarian cause. But for all the much-praised consistency of his positions, those same views frequently wander into the realm of the outdated, the impractical, or the downright absurd.
It’s impossible to imagine the 76-year-old libertarian becoming president.
No it's not: Election Night 2008
It’s almost as hard to imagine him becoming the GOP nominee. Should he win here, it will merely defer the GOP’s real decision - and signal that, once again, Iowa is marching to a different drummer.
Yeah, even if he wins he's not the winner.
--more--"
More: WTF?! Today Show 12/28/11 - Chuck Todd "Who ever Comes in Second, not named Ron Paul in Iowa is the REAL Winner" MSNBC site - has "Paul Bearers" under Ron Paul's profile to subliminally affect people's thoughts of Paul
Iowa GOP moving vote-count to 'undisclosed location'
Latest NY Times Iowa projection shows Ron Paul with 60% chance of winning ... unless the GOP steals it for Romney
Thus we get this:
"Mitt Romney tops CNN poll for Iowa" by Matt Viser, Globe Staff
CLINTON, Iowa – Mitt Romney has jumped to the top of a new CNN-Time poll in Iowa, putting him in the lead just six days before voters make their selection and raising expectations for a campaign that has spent the past year trying to tamp them down.
Twenty-five percent of likely caucus-goers said they would vote for the former Massachusetts governor, compared with 22 percent for Representative Ron Paul; 16 percent for former Senator Rick Santorum, of Pennsylvania; and 14 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
The poll signifies a deep drop in support for Gingrich, who led the poll at 33 percent just three weeks earlier. It also shows a rapid rise for Santorum, who was at 5 percent in the previous CNN poll....
Translation: They are simply MAKING UP NUMBERS and thinking YOU WILL BUY ANY PILE of BS they throw in front of you!!
The poll – and large crowd sizes Romney has been drawing throughout the day – indicates that he could be in a position to win Iowa, a state that has been vexing for him after he lost in 2008. He has kept the state at arm’s length this year, making few trips as his advisers downplay his chances....
But somehow Iowans have warmed to him overnight!
--more--"
Related: Romney criticizes Paul's stance on dealing with Iran
Also see: Globe Guarantees Ron Paul Win in Iowa
The Israeli Defense Firm That Tallies The Iowa Caucus
Globe Unexcited About Iowa
I'll bet they are now.
