Sunday, April 15, 2012

Push For War in Korea Falls Apart

"North Korea completed the hurried transition to its young new leader, Kim Jong Un, on Wednesday, as a confrontation with the United States loomed over the North’s intent to launch a long-range missile....

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"N. Korea rocket launch an apparent failure" by Jean H. Lee  |  Associated Press, April 13, 2012

PYONGYANG, North Korea - Defying international concerns, North Korea fired a long-range rocket early Friday that splintered into pieces over the Yellow Sea about a minute after takeoff in an apparent failure, South Korean and US officials said....

If the rocket failed, it would be a major embarrassment for Pyongyang, which invited dozens of international journalists to observe the rocket launch and other celebrations. It has staked its pride on the satellite....

In Pyongyang, there was no word about a launch. North Korean officials said they would make an announcement about the launch “soon.’’

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"Failed satellite launch costs N. Korea $1 billion; Leader’s attempt to mark ascension a political disaster" by Choe Sang-Hun  |  New York Times, April 14, 2012

SEOUL, South Korea - For the new North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, his government’s failure to put a satellite into orbit Friday was a $1 billion humiliation....  

In a socialist country steeped in the traditions of a Confucian dynasty, it is of paramount import for the young leader, Kim, to embellish his rise to power with events that showed his loyalty to his forefathers while demonstrating his own abilities to lead, analysts said.

“The main drive behind the rocket launch was domestic politics,’’ said Kim Yong Hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul and a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “They wanted to introduce the Kim Jung Un era with a big celebratory bang.’’

And the government, more famous for shutting off its country from the outside world, had intensified the prelaunch publicity.

It trumpeted the satellite program as a key achievement of Kim. It also invited foreign journalists to visit the launch site and command and control center.

The failure was worrisome, raising widespread concerns that it would unleash a power struggle in the North that made the prospects of a third nuclear test increasingly likely.  

See: N. Korea says it will suspend nuclear testing

North Korea preparing nuclear test, report says

Watergate-type scandal brews in South Korea

That second item sure took your mind off the third, didn't it? 

At the United Nations, the Security Council met in emergency consultations Friday but took no action to punish the North.

Isn't the shame and loss of material and money enough?

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Also see: Kim Jong Un promotes 70 military officers

New North Korean leader makes first public speech

Can we talk?

"First US-N. Korea talks under young Kim’s regime are extended into 2d day" New York Times, February 24, 2012

BEIJING - The first official talks between the United States and North Korea since the coming to power of the youthful new North Korean leader were “serious and substantial,’’ the senior US negotiator said yesterday, and would extend into a second day.

The talks, designated by the Obama administration as exploratory, were seen as a way to test the new leader, Kim Jong Un, a man in his late 20s.  So far, Kim Jong Un appears to be consolidating power without the opposition some had anticipated, US officials and Korea specialists say.  

There never was any opposition expected here. All that was someone trying to stir up trouble.

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"N. Korea talks make incremental progress" New York Times, February 25, 2012

BEIJING - Two days of talks designed to start the process of ridding North Korea of its nuclear arsenal made some progress but fell short of any concrete results, the chief US negotiator said yesterday.

The fact that the talks took place relatively soon after the ascension of the new North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, was in itself helpful and opened a small window on to the secretive country, said the negotiator, Glyn T. Davies.

“We’ve been able to illuminate the issues a bit better and gain a better understanding of their rationale,’’ Davies said after the final session in Beijing with the North Korean vice foreign minister, Kim Kye Gwan....

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Related: North Korean official to attend unofficial nuclear talks in US

So what happened?

"Obama: N. Korean rocket test would isolate regime" by Ben Feller  |  Associated Press, March 25, 2012

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Warning North Korea from its doorstep, President Barack Obama said Pyongyang risks deepening its isolation in the international community if it proceeds with a planned long-range rocket launch.

‘‘North Korea will achieve nothing by threats or provocations,’’ Obama said during a news conference Sunday in Seoul, South Korea, where he was to attend a nuclear security summit.

Obama spoke fresh off his first visit to the tense Demilitarized Zone, the heavily patrolled no-man’s land between North and South Korea, where he peered long and hard at the isolated North.

‘‘It’s like you’re in a time warp,’’ Obama said. ‘‘It’s like you’re looking across 50 years into a country that has missed 40 years or 50 years of progress.’’

Obama looked noticeably fatigued after essentially one long day that involved a 17-hour flight from Washington, a helicopter ride to the border zone, two sets of diplomatic talks, the news conference and an official dinner.

From the DMZ, Obama returned to Seoul for a private meeting with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and a joint news conference. Both leaders warned there would be consequences if North Korea proceeds with its plans to launch a satellite using a long-range rocket next month, a move the U.S. and other powers say would violate a U.N. ban on nuclear and missile activity because the same technology could be used for long-range missiles.

Obama said the launch would jeopardize a deal for the U.S. to resume stalled food aid to North Korea and may result in the tightening of harsh economic sanctions on the already-impoverished nation.

‘‘Bad behavior will not be rewarded,’’ Obama said. ‘‘There had been a pattern, I think, for decades in which North Korea thought if they had acted provocatively, then somehow they would be bribed into ceasing and desisting acting provocatively.’’  

Only works if you are Israel.

The planned launch is yet another setback for the U.S. in years of on-again, off-again attempts to launch real negotiations. The announcement also played into Republican criticism that Obama had been too quick to jump at a new chance for talks with the North Koreans.

North Korea walked away from international disarmament talks in 2009.

That's because of so many broken promises by the US, and too many "and one more things."

Years of fitful negotiations had succeeded in ending part of North Korea’s nuclear program but failed in stopping it from building and testing nuclear devices and long-range missiles that might be able to carry bombs.

The United States is a party to the stalled talks, along with China, Japan, Russia and South Korea. The negotiations were aimed at offering North Korea economic and diplomatic incentives to give up threatening elements of its nuclear program.

China has the greatest leverage in the talks as North Korea’s only ally and benefactor.

Obama was blunt Sunday in assessing China’s success so far in promoting better behavior from North Korea, saying its approach over the past decades has failed to alter the North’s behavior. Obama said he planned to raise the issue during a meeting Monday with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

‘‘What I’ve said to them consistently is rewarding bad behavior, turning a blind eye to deliberate provocations, trying to paper over these not just provocative words but extraordinarily provocative acts that violate international norms, that that’s not obviously working,’’ Obama said. 

Works only when it comes to the US government and Israel.

China maintains that it must move slowly in influencing North Korea, and says its political influence is limited.

Obama said he is sympathetic to China’s main argument for going slow: The potential of political chaos and a refugee crisis on its border with North Korea if the Pyongyang regime collapses. But he held out China as an example of economic success, an achievement, Obama said, that it reached by ‘‘abandoning some of the practices that North Korea still clings to.’’

Obama’s trip comes as North Koreans mark the end of the 100-day mourning period for longtime leader Kim Jong Il, who died of a heart attack in December. Since Kim’s death, son Kim Jong Un has been paying a series of high-profile visits to military units and made his own trip to the ‘‘peace village’’ of Panmunjom inside the DMZ earlier this month.

Obama said he had not yet been able to make a full assessment of the North’s new leader, saying the political situation there appeared to be ‘‘unsettled.’’

‘‘It’s not clear exactly who is calling the shots and what their long-term objectives are,’’ Obama said.

Lee, too, said it was ‘‘premature’’ to assess the North’s new leader. He said that while he had some expectations that the young Kim might take a different approach than his father, he found news of the rocket launch to be a ‘‘disappointment.’’

Obama opened his trip to South Korea with a visit to the border separating the Korean peninsula. The zone is a Cold War anachronism, a legacy of the uncertain armistice that ended the Korean War nearly 60 years ago. Hundreds of thousands of troops stand ready on both sides of the border zone, which is littered with land mines and encased in razor wire.

Obama shook hands and spoke briefly in the dining hall at a U.S. military camp just outside the 2.5-mile-zone, saying the troops were working at ‘‘freedom’s frontier.’’

‘‘I could not be prouder of what you’re doing,’’ Obama told smiling American troops at Camp Bonifas. Obama said the same is true at every U.S. military post, but ‘‘there’s something about this spot in particular.’’

The United States has more than 28,000 troops in South Korea.

Obama and other world leaders were gathering in Seoul this week for meetings aimed at securing nuclear material and preventing it from being smuggled to states or groups intent on mass destruction. Progress has been uneven since 2010, when Obama set an ambitious goal of locking down vulnerable nuclear materials by 2014. No breakthroughs are expected now.

Obama has called nuclear terrorism the gravest threat the United States and the world may face.

See: The Boston Globe Peers Into the Future

North Korea is a prime suspect in the proliferation of some nuclear know-how, along with missiles that could be used to deliver weapons of mass destruction. 

I wouldn't be worrying about any Korean missiles right now.

Iran is suspected in the arming of terrorists with non-nuclear weaponry, and the U.S. and other nations suspect Iran’s nuclear energy program could be converted to build a bomb.

Meaning Iran will be blamed for the false flag nuking of Chicago.

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Related:

"North Korea called Obama “confrontational,’’ duplicitous, and insulting.

“We will never give up the launch of a satellite for peaceful purposes,’’ said a spokesman for the North Korean Foreign Ministry in a statement carried by its state news agency, KCNA. The spokesman advised the Obama administration to “drop the confrontation conception’’ and “make a bold decision to acknowledge that we also have a right to launch satellites.’’  

They have a point.

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Also see

US says North Korea’s planned rocket launch a ‘deal-breaker’

We were just looking for one.

North Korea's rocket ready at launch pad

North Korea ready to launch satellite
  
Japan plans to shoot down N. Korea missile

Won't have to.   

 North Korea issues warning as nuclear summit nears

North Korea threatens military strike

North Korea holds live-fire drills, criticizes South’s war exercises