I'm not joking....
"With flat US job market, where are all the workers?" by Tonm Raum | Associated Press June 10, 2014
$eriou$ly?
WASHINGTON — The unemployment rate has been on a slow downward trajectory since the recession ended nearly five years ago. And the overall jobless level has dropped to nonrecession levels. But the number of the working-age people with jobs is barely 6 in 10, hovering at a level reminiscent of the late 1970s.
The unemployment is really at 40%!
In May, the workforce participation rate — the combination of those with jobs and unemployed workers actively seeking them — was 62.8 percent, the same as in April. Job markets have been essentially flat since October.
Where have all the missing workers gone?
They are not be counted.
A key factor, nearly all agree, is the growing exodus from the job market of baby boomers. Born roughly from 1946 to 1964, these workers are at or are fast approaching retirement age.
What is this, a pitch for immigration reform and the importation of cheap and compliant foreign labor?
Another reason is that some employment-intensive industries that suffered the most during the Great Recession, especially in manufacturing and construction, have yet to fully rebound.
And yet I'm told they are leading the recovery!
But perhaps the most significant factor is unemployed workers ‘‘who just drop out of the job market after one, two or three years of looking for work and not being successful,’’ said Carl Van Horn, a professor of public policy at Rutgers University.
Recent surveys suggest more and more longtime unemployed workers are abandoning the search for another job.
‘‘And they are disproportionately older workers,’’ Van Horn said. ‘‘We have a large number of older [unemployed] workers who are not old enough to retire, yet they are facing discrimination in the workplace and have found it nearly impossible to get another job.’’
There are no jobs to get.
There’s a flip side to that, though, Van Horn suggests: ‘‘As the economy gets stronger, as it continues to grow, eventually some of those discouraged workers will come back into the labor market, and we’ll have a higher labor-participation rate.’’
But that hasn’t happened — yet.
‘‘We know that the reason unemployment is so high right now is pretty simple: Employers haven’t seen demand for their stuff pick up in a way that would require them to bring on more workers,’’ said Heidi Shierholz, the chief economist for the Economic Policy Institute, a labor-oriented think tank.
‘‘It’s going to be this way for a while. We’re in a long slog,’’ Shierholz said.
‘‘We really are in a recovery. Things are getting better,’’ Shierholz added. ‘‘It is agonizingly slow. But we are going in the right direction.’’
If you are in the one percent anyway. Doesn't that have the feel of someone trying to convince you of something that is unbelievable. I mean, really!
It may be quite a while before the jobless rate falls back to 5 percent and below, long the informal standard for a normal level for nonrecession times.
But 5 percent may no longer be the norm.
In February 2011, economists at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank suggested 6 percent might be the ‘‘new normal.’’ But some analysts suggested even that may be unrealistically low.
Yeah, just change the measurements and everything looks great!
‘‘Our economy is leaving our unemployed folks further and further behind,’’ said Robert A. Funk, chief executive of Express Employment Professional, an Oklahoma City service that tries to line people up with jobs and help client companies find employees.
‘‘But if people quit looking for work at a rate like this, it makes our job much, much more difficult,’’ said Funk, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in Kansas City.
Joblessness is disproportionately high among younger workers, as well.
And the jobs that are available?
See: Instructor Obama Scamming Students
And you wonder why I'm silent in the classroom?
Generation Opportunity, a nonpartisan youth advocacy organization, reported even higher effective unemployment rates for those under 30.
‘‘School is out for summer, and more than four out of five recent grads don’t have jobs,’’ said Patrice Lee, director of outreach for the organization.
The overall US unemployment rate is now back to where it was before the Great Recession. It was 6.3 percent in May, same as the month before.
Except it's a bull$hit rate because once your benefits are exhausted you are no longer counted -- which is why they were not extending for the election year!! Politicians want to argue economic numbers are good during the campaign!
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Now, I don't want to start puffing and huffing but....
"Economic growth expected to quicken" Associated Press June 10, 2014
WASHINGTON — US economic growth should accelerate in the second quarter and remain healthy for the rest of this year, according to a group of business economists.
Still, growth for the full year will probably be lower than they previously estimated.
The mixed me$$age bull$hit is really.... sigh.
Job growth should remain steady and consumer spending will also probably pick up, a survey by the National Association of Business Economists said Monday, but harsh winter weather caused gross domestic product to contract 1 percent in the first three months of the year, worse than analysts had expected....
What's that about weather?
The recession ended in June 2009 and economists are optimistic.
Someone want to flip over that record?
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"Slower rise in US retail sector in May offset by earlier gains" by Martin Crutsinger | Associated Press June 13, 2014
WASHINGTON — US retail sales rose modestly in May as consumers turned cautious in their spending. But the weaker-than-expected result is unlikely to derail overall economic growth in the second quarter.
Retail sales rose 0.3 percent in May, helped by a jump in demand for autos, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The result follows a 0.5 percent climb in April, which was revised up from an initial estimate of 0.1 percent. March sales surged 1.5 percent — the biggest one-month gain in four years.
This after it was admitted the economy actually contracted.
Analysts said any disappointment in May was offset by the change in April’s figure.
‘‘May retail sales fell short of estimates, although upward revisions to April make it about a wash versus consensus forecasts,’’ said Jay Feldman, director of US Economics Research at Credit Suisse.
Retail sales had fallen sharply in January as winter storms cut into shopping and various other types of economic activity. Economic growth went into reverse in the first quarter, shrinking at an annual rate of 1 percent. But the revival in consumer spending has led economists to predict a solid rebound to 3 percent growth or better in the current April-June quarter....
Paul Dales, senior US economist at Capital Economics, said that the declines at department stores and appliance stores were hard to understand, given the rapid rise in employment. Households are also feeling wealthier with the strong gains in the stock market and in home prices.
Related: US household wealth hit high in first quarter
Makes it sound like all of us!
‘‘We expect it won’t be long before sales start rising more rapidly,’’ Dales said in a research note. ‘‘Overall, the fundamentals suggest that the US economy remains healthy.’’
Sales at hardware stores and furniture stores increased, but department store sales fell 1.4 percent. A broader category that includes department stores and big-box stores such as Walmart and Target saw sales fall 0.6 percent. Sales were also down at specialty clothing stores and electronics stores but posted a solid gain of 0.6 percent in the category that includes Internet shopping.
Many economists are forecasting that overall economic growth will remain at a solid 3 percent level in the second half of the year.
Part of the optimism reflects expectations that employers will keep increasing their hiring, with the extra jobs boosting incomes and supporting stronger consumer spending....
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Related:
"Because sales have roughly kept pace with the higher inventories, companies will probably need to continue restocking their shelves to meet rising consumer and business demand. That should help to fuel faster economic growth as more factories crank up their production and the spending ripples through the broader economy."
More rippling:
"Pay raises go mainly to those in select industries" by Bernard Condon | Associated Press June 13, 2014
If you hope to get a raise that finally feels like one, it helps to work in the right industry.
Historically, at this stage in the economy’s recovery pay would be rising in most sectors. But five years after the Great Recession officially ended, raises remain sharply uneven across industries and, as a whole, have barely kept up with prices. Overall, pay has been rising about 2 percent a year, roughly equal to the inflation rate.
Most treading water or falling under.
The best raises have gone to workers with specialized skills in a few booming industries: energy, transportation, health care, technology. Those in retail or government have been less fortunate.
BULL!
‘‘If you’re in an in-demand field, with the right skill set, the chance of getting a raise is much higher,’’ says Katie Bardaro, an economist at PayScale, a pay-tracking firm.
Typically in a recovery, raises in a few industries lead to raises in others as workers who are seeking higher pay become confident enough to quit one job for another.
This time, the subpar recovery has slowed pay gains. Technology has played a role, too. It has lifted pay for people who work, for example, with programs that sift data from your mobile devices so companies can pitch products matched to your interests. Yet workers in industries upended by the Internet, such as retail businesses left behind by e-commerce, have been hurt.
Related: Shying Away From My Boston Globe Bu$ine$$ Section
Here are some standouts on pay:
■ Oil and gas: Fracking — the pumping of liquid and sand into the ground to squeeze oil from rock formations — is opposed by environmentalists worried about pollution. But it’s driven a boom in jobs and wages. Oil and gas workers earned an average of 11 percent more in April than they did a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s more than five times the average gain across all industries.
See: Finishing the Month With Fracking
It all comes back home.
■ The temp surge: Many temp workers would like full-time jobs with benefits, but at least their pay is climbing. Robert Half International, a staffing firm, says higher pay for its temps forced it to raise the rates it charges employers by 2.6 percent in the first quarter, a point higher than its increase late last year.
■ High-tech: Nonmanagers at computer system design companies earned an average of 4.1 percent more in April than a year before, the latest in a string of increases that began in 2012. Their pay had not risen in the three prior years. Pay is strong for specialists in ‘‘Big Data’’ — digital information that includes data culled from mobile devices to spot trends or build dossiers on consumers.
See: Hacker Helped FBI
Also hot are people who use technology to help health care providers digitize medical records. Nearly three-quarters of health care providers are having trouble attracting workers with expertise in e-records, according to a survey last year by Towers Watson, a consultant.
Obummer.
■ Blue-collar bounce: As manufacturing picks up, trucking companies are desperate for drivers. And not surprisingly, truckers are earning more. Hourly pay for transportation and warehouse workers was 4.4 percent higher than a year earlier in each of the past three months — a streak unmatched in over three decades.
Don't let the mixed me$$age they are manufacturing wreck the narrative.
Ryder Systems, which rents trucks, said in a call with financial analysts that it’s facing upward pressure on drivers’ wages. Many drivers retired or left the industry during the financial crisis when demand plunged.
See: Truck Stop
(Blog editor honks horn)
‘‘I definitely am making more money,’’ said Darrell Beyer, 56, a driver from Kingman, Ariz.
So are workers at companies that make construction equipment. They earned an average of 11 percent more an hour in the past year, according to the BLS.
Pay for nonmanagerial and production workers, who fill 80 percent of private nonfarm jobs, is rising 2.3 percent annually. In previous recoveries, raises for these workers peaked at about 4 percent three or four years after they’d begun climbing. That raises at least the possibility that their pay will keep rising.
■ Housing: Many of the skilled workers who are needed to build homes fled to other careers after the housing bust. Now there aren’t enough of them. Home construction workers have received an average 3.3 percent raise a year, according to the BLS, since their wages starting rising in 2012. They’d fallen 4 percent over the previous two years.
That is why the industry is rife with illegal immigrants picked up off street corners.
Buck Consultants foresees raises for all construction workers, including those involved in commercial and industrial buildings, averaging more than 3 percent for a second straight year.
Among the industry laggards on pay are:
■ Retailers: Consumers are spending more, but that’s not helping workers at some stores who earn the minimum wage or little more. Though some cities and states have enacted higher minimums, the minimum in 28 states is no more than the federal mandate of $7.25 an hour.
Wages for liquor-store staff rose less than 1 percent in April from a year earlier, according to the BLS. At electronics stores, pay actually fell 4 percent. Perhaps some of their money was going to workers at Internet retailers: Their pay jumped 3 percent.
Fast food workers aren’t seeing much relief, either. ‘‘I’ve been earning $7.25 for six or seven years now,’’ said Mary Coleman, a food preparer at Popeyes in Milwaukee. ‘‘It’s hard to make ends meet.’’
Related: Low-wage workers march in downtown Boston for higher pay
■ Government: Budget cuts mean meager wage gains for local, state, and federal workers. Wages rose less than 1 percent in 2013, according to Haver Analytics, a data provider.
What bull! Cops, firefighters, and others all getting phat rai$es!.
‘‘The unions aren’t pushing for more,’’ said David Van De Voort, at Buck Consultants. ‘‘They’re focused on job security and retaining benefits.’’
Not working, either!
■ Arts: Struggling with a fall in donations, theaters, orchestras, and other arts groups appear to be retrenching. Workers in the broad category of art, entertainment and recreation, including actors, writers and musicians, earned 1.1 percent less in the first quarter than a year earlier, according to a PayScale survey.
So the wealthy are even cutting off their own playgrounds, 'eh?
Related: Donation will keep North Adams Holocaust museum open
No one wants to visit? Imagine my shock.
Overall, most US workers have fared much better than that. But inflation has eroded their gains. From the start of the recovery in June 2009 through April, pay for nonmanagerial and production workers dropped 0.2 percent, after accounting for inflation. By this point in the previous three recoveries, wages had risen an average of 2.3 percent, after inflation.
Still, some economists think the outlook for broader pay gains has brightened. More people are quitting jobs than at any time in six years, a sign of confidence. A third of small businesses say they plan to raise pay within six months, double the proportion a year ago.
Or got sick of the humiliation of their $hit job, like me.
And the unemployment rate among workers who lost jobs less than six months ago is 4.1 percent, below its three-decade average. These short-term unemployed are the ones employers tend to draw upon to fill jobs. Fewer of them suggest pressure to keep present employees content by raising pay.
‘‘There comes a point where that excess supply [of workers] gets mopped up and wages begin to climb,’’ says David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds. The arrogance just oozes out of him with statements like that.
We all excess supply needing to get mopped up (or genocided out of existence, I guess).
Still, many economists, including the Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, disagree....
The gloomy camp includes workers themselves....
Because of real world experience.
That in itself could limit raises: If you don’t think conditions are ripe for a raise, you’re not likely to ask for one.
Oh, you are supposed to a$k for one!? Thought it came with the humiliation of job review.
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Related: Executives to focus on gender equality at event
Yeah, divert attention from the 1% and get us all clawing at each other's throats.
Sorry, folks, but the Globe is no longer home to me. I guess I will just have to take up residency somewhere else:
Luxury rentals in works for Quincy
Many seek new homes near cities but are priced out
The farther away from them the better.
"Mass. economy improving, but worries persist, economists say" by Megan Woolhouse | Globe Staff June 10, 2014
An improving state economy has been lifted by increased consumer spending, rising wages and salaries, and falling unemployment, according to a group of local economists.
But the economists, whose consensus opinion was published Tuesday, in MassBenchmarks, the University of Massachusetts’ economic journal, said several factors warrant caution in the outlook. They include a stalled housing market beyond Greater Boston and weak levels of business investment, a key driver of the state’s economy....
In addition, the economists said, the federal spending cutbacks in recent years also appear to be taking a toll on hiring in the state’s technology sector, which wins a high share of defense contracts and federal research grants.
“While the negative impact of [budget cuts] is moderating, it does appear to be having an impact on the Commonwealth's vaunted ‘innovation economy,’ “they said. That “is likely part of the reason why state employment in research and development sectors has been stagnant as of late.”
Massachusetts’ economy generally recovered from the last recession more quickly than the nation as a whole....
Related: Boston Globe Giving You the Business
The economists making the assessment of the state economy are members of the editorial board of MassBenchmarks journal. The board includes economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, University of Massachusetts, Northeastern University, State Street Corp., and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Their consensus found that the overall pace of global trade remains “weak,” but said Europe is slowly growing again and significant growth in China is also projected. Both regions are important trading partners for the state.
The state’s rebound in single-family housing construction has stalled, the economists said, which coincides with low levels of household formation, which remain below long-term averages. The weak economy has left many young workers unemployed and underemployed, with some living with parents and others putting off starting families.
That is a “troubling trend that has been in evidence since the beginning of the recession and one that may help to explain the lack of sustained growth in single family housing construction and consumer durables” such as large appliances and furniture, the economists said.
The economists also cited the continued effects of long-term unemployment on the state economy, citing high numbers of people who have been unemployed for more than six months.
“It is now very clear that the longer a person is out of work the more diminished their prospects are for finding a job,” they said.
No job to find.
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Actually, the “story for the Massachusetts economy, if you ignore high levels of
unemployment and inequality, is the economy has been performing very
well.”
I'm too shocked to read certain sections, though happy at some outcomes despite the hate.
UPDATE: ‘I’m so excited, oh, my gosh,’ Justina Pelletier says
Now I'm really happy!
I guess I'm just feeling rundown to the point of feeling sick. I'm going to check the mail, close the gate, and get to bed. I'll worry about tomorrow later. Don't know if forgetting to read the paper should be a concern or not, but I do know it's written for a certain cla$$ or tribe.
Time for lunch, and I'm not having fish.
