Sunday, November 9, 2014

Sunday Globe Special: The Low Price of Oil

OPEC cuts most demand forecasts for its crude on US boom

"Gas falling under $3 nationwide: What to know" Associated Press   November 01, 2014

NEW YORK — The sight is so surprising that Americans are sharing photos of it, along with all those cute Halloween costumes, sweeping vistas, and special meals: The gas station sign, with a price of $2-something a gallon.

‘‘It’s stunning what’s happening here,’’ says Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. ‘‘I’m a little bit shocked.’’

The national average price of gasoline has fallen 33 cents in October, landing Friday at $3, according to AAA. Kloza said the average was expected to fall under $3 by early Saturday morning for the first time in four years.

When the national average crossed above $3 a gallon in December of 2010, drivers weren’t sure they’d ever see $2.99 again.

Global demand for oil and gasoline was rising as people in developing countries bought cars by the tens of millions and turmoil was brewing in the oil-rich Middle East.

Now demand isn’t rising as fast as expected, drillers have learned to tap vast new sources of oil, particularly in the United States, and crude continues to flow out of the Middle East.

Here are a few things to know about cheap gas:

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"Oil prices tumble on Saudi discount move" by Pan Pylas | Associated Press   November 05, 2014

LONDON — Oil prices slumped to multiyear lows on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia cut the price of oil sold to the United States, a move that is shaking an already volatile market but will probably stimulate the world economy.

The 25 percent or so slide in oil prices since the summer could boost consumer spending and business investment in many economies around the world as fuel bills fall.

Probably could! That's not why they are driving down the price, though.

Not everyone’s a winner, though. Oil-producing countries such as Russia and Venezuela, which have high extraction costs and budgets that rely on assumptions of relatively high energy prices, stand to lose out.

Yeah, you must suffer because this shithole government has a bug up its ass about those countries and the oil they sit on.

And lower prices could eventually slow the booming production in the United States, offsetting the benefit of lower energy costs for consumers and businesses....

Huh? 

Related: Rising Electric Rates 

Offsetting what?

On Monday, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer, cut prices for US customers. The move has been interpreted as an attempt by the country to maintain its market share in the world’s largest economy against supplies from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and US shale oil producers.

Uh-huh (it's actually to undercut Russia as the globe-kickers and builders of world empire $crew with the $y$tem).

Saudi Arabia is ‘‘threatened by US oil production, and they are acting to try to break the US producers’ back,’’ Phil Flynn, senior market analyst for Price Futures Group, wrote in a daily newsletter to clients.

I thought they were our friend?

The drop in oil reverberated in the US stock market....

As if I cared how rich people's fortunes are rising and falling. F*** them!

"Falling oil prices weighed on energy stocks as prices fell to their lowest level in over two years on reports that Saudi Arabia is cutting the price it sells oil to the United States in a bid to maintain market share.... The latest decline was prompted by Saudi Arabia’s price cuts on oil it sells to the United States; it aims to hold on to its market share as US oil production booms. Lower oil prices have hit energy stocks hard and helped pull the stock market off the record highs it hit last week. Airlines won out, though; fuel is their single biggest cost."

Airlines are already making record profit, too!

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At least they are finally going to let women drive.

"US stocks slip as oil slump hits energy companies" Associated Press   November 05, 2014

NEW YORK — The ongoing slump in oil prices, while potentially buoying consumer spending, again dragged stocks down Tuesday, pummeling energy companies with another day of big losses.

The drop in oil prices has hit energy stocks hard, driving them into negative territory for the year. It has also helped push the stock market back from the record levels it reached last week.

I was covering the up and down then got sick of watching it. $orry.

While energy stocks are suffering, many analysts and investors predict that the US economy will benefit in the long run from falling energy costs. 

But not the $hort run, huh?

Lower gas prices will put more money in consumers’ pockets, giving them more spending power.

Airlines were among the winners Tuesday. Fuel is their single largest operating cost and lower prices should mean higher profits if demand for air travel stays strong.

RelatedRolls-Royce to cut 5% of workforce

They make jet engines, too?

Disappointing economic news out of Washington also contributed to the market malaise....

Looks like all good news to me.

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"Low oil prices scare oil boom country; Trend may hurt local economies" by Josh Wood and Jonathan Fahey | Associated Press   November 04, 2014

WILLISTON, N.D. — Oil has hit a rough patch. Many expect these lower prices to stick around for a while.

All I care about is the gas pump. 

Lower oil prices, while good for the broader economy, threaten what has been a surprising and dramatic surge in US oil production — and the drilling communities that have come to depend on oil money. Places like Williston, a once-sleepy farming town, thrived.

Ever see Promised Land?

Related: There is Nothing to Fear But the Lack of Fear 

And now you got fear.

Prices would have to fall lower, and stay low for a while, to turn the US oil boom into a bust.

Already?  

All so this war-mongering government can stick it to Russia?

Wells that are already producing won’t be shut off, and enormous projects with long time horizons will still be built. Many drillers have funded next year’s drilling plans by selling oil in the futures market.

Still, a $20 drop in the price of oil means $170 million less in revenue every day for the US oil industry.

Investors are less willing to take on risk, and oil companies big and small are left with less money to drill the next well.

Last week, BP, Chevron, and Shell told investors they would cut spending on development because of the lower prices.

Drilling in unprolific fields will stop because it won’t be profitable....

Meaning more imports, and the wars needed to keep them. 

At least they bring you football Sundays!

The analysis firm IHS calculates in a report released Monday that the income oil and gas companies made on the capital they spent has fallen by half since 2000, even as oil prices increased. ‘‘The recent price drop in global crude prices will only add to these financial challenges,’’ said IHS’s Daniel Pratt.

The rate of returns already drying up? And all that land ruined by fracking?

For now, boomtowns like Williston are still going strong. Hotels are full, restaurants are packed, and roads are choked with hulking oil field trucks.

But when drillers cut costs, communities will eventually feel it....

The state’s next two-year budget may have to be revised because the preliminary forecast was based on $90 a barrel.

On Wall Street, there is disagreement about the duration of lower prices and the industry impact.

That can only be good.

But there’s broad agreement that the rate of growth in the United States will slow.

Not good, and likely wrong or lies. They are about as low as you can go.

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Also seeHow to get a country to switch to coal

You give the Koch brothers a tax bre.... ak. (Sigh)