"Boston Fed chief warns economic hit from coronavirus could last longer than expected; Eric Rosengren said the economy won’t begin to rebound until there is widespread testing available to allow people to be comfortable returning to work" by Jon Chesto and Shirley Leung Globe Staff and Globe Columnist, April 1, 2020
Boston Federal Reserve Bank president Eric Rosengren said Wednesday that the economic shock from the coronavirus pandemic will be deeper and more protracted than once thought, and Massachusetts will feel the pain sooner than other states.
The pain is at the end of this post.
Rosengren expects the US unemployment rate will rise to at least 10 percent by the end of the second quarter. Massachusetts will likely have a higher jobless rate than other states because a shutdown started here before many other parts of the country, he said.
Rosengren, an economist by training, said it’s difficult to forecast the extent of the economic crisis without first knowing the trajectory of the pandemic. The two are inextricably linked, but given the path of the virus in the United States — which a new federal government estimate projects could kill as many as 240,000 Americans — he expects the economy to shrink in the second and third quarters amid a painful recession, and he doesn’t anticipate a fast recovery. “Already we’re looking worse than many other countries,” he said.
So they train you how to lie and loot. Who knew?
It won't be painful for him and his. They will just get richer.
Rosengren’s prediction came as the toll of the virus continued to rise, and the state made plans for the growing number of patients.
Yeah, about that.
The Globe's above-the-fold, lead feature tells me the state doesn’t track current hospitalizations related to coronavirus, and the critical number that is so hard to pin down is are Massachusetts hospitals on track to being overwhelmed?
That was initially met with a big WTF before the same article started throwing out state numbers on infected -- "on Wednesday, state officials reported 682 cumulative hospitalizations, likely an undercount, but state officials said they track hospital capacity and the state’s overall patient census, including those hospitalized for cancer, heart disease, or other conditions, but hospitals do not report their daily number of coronavirus inpatients, but the latest figures obtained by the Globe show that the state’s big hospitals are not yet near capacity, but patient beds are filling up. Also, a large number of existing beds are already taken up by other patients sickened by other conditions unrelated to the pandemic, and new forecasts from the University of Washington predict that the demand on Massachusetts hospitals will peak around April 14, and that by summer the virus will have taken nearly 1,800 lives in the state. Governor Charlie Baker on Monday said the epidemic is likely to begin peaking in Massachusetts between April 7 and 17. In preparation, he said, the state has moved to add 1,000 nursing home beds, recruit retired clinicians to help, cancel elective surgeries, and asked the federal government to send 1,000 ventilators, the Globe has reported."
All the reporting coming from the state is based on MODELING, folks! That is why it is quiet where you live, why you don't really know anybody sick with COVID-19. People are dying, yes, but they are dying from seasonal flu, underlying health problems, and other causes, in many cases natural causes, and the state and pre$$ are amplifying the numbers with the modeling.
That's the modeling that has already been walked back and shown to be faulty, but my evil leaders and their pre$$ mouthpieces are running with it and doubling down -- as is the President of the United States.
Anyway, back to Rosengren and the bu$ine$$ $ide of thi$:
Governor Charlie Baker on Wednesday suggested the cavernous Boston Convention and Exhibition Center in the Seaport could be used to treat people who are suffering from COVID-19 but who don’t need acute hospital-level care.
UPDATE: Walsh announces plans for convention center to become field hospital; Baker warns of upcoming coronavirus peak
Standing in Worcester’s DCU Center, a sports arena being converted to a 250-bed field hospital, Baker said state health officials are looking at sites for similar operations around Massachusetts.
“There are two for sure, one here and one at the BCEC in Boston," he said, adding that the state is reviewing other sites as well.
Frightening, and the fact that he is going along like all leaders all across the world leaves one, feeling, well, like we are all trapped in the dark on the 94th floor. Strike three. Game, set, and match.
State health officials announced Wednesday that the number of deaths from the pandemic in Massachusetts had risen by 33, or 37 percent, to 122, up from 89 the day before.
There they go again, modeling for the cameras.
Among them was the youngest reported victim so far in the state. Riley Rumrill, 31, who state records show had an unspecified preexisting medical condition, is believed to be the first person in Massachusetts under the age of 50 to die of the virus. He died Sunday at Boston Medical Center.
The Globe bumped him above the fold and dropped down the discrepancies in the numbers to the bottom of the page?
Baker said this week that the virus would likely start to peak between April 7 and 17 in Massachusetts. Forecasts are predicting that by summer the virus will have killed nearly 1,800 people in the state.
Models, forecasts, m that is what we are getting here, like prediction on who will win the football game.
While other economists are predicting a robust rebound perhaps as soon as the fall, Rosengren instead says any recovery is linked to the availability of widespread COVID-19 testing. Even when stay-at-home orders are lifted, Rosengren said, he expects many people to remain uncomfortable about resuming normal life — going to the office, taking public transportation, and eating out at restaurants.
“Without testing everybody, you don’t know how many people are infected,” he said. “Until you can test everybody, it’s going to be difficult for the economy to fully come back.”
Yup, it's all about the test (and follow-up vaccine, I'm sure), that this Fed f**k is worried about.
Meanwhile, Wall Street turned increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a quick recovery.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average posted its biggest-ever drop on the first day of a new quarter, and Rosengren said unemployment will be disproportionately distributed among hourly workers — the people who staff hotels and restaurants, for example. This underscores his concern that the pandemic will worsen income inequality in this country. He said he worries that unemployment assistance, even at a newly fortified level, will not last long enough for many people who need it. Access to health care for lower-wage earners will also be a big problem.
“I do think it’s going to be a more persistent problem than many people are estimating,” Rosengren said. “Individuals and firms have to take on more debt. … I do expect that’s going to cause a longer tail to this than many were anticipating.”
Yeah, isn't it wonderful that the Fed banker is so worried about you and the income inequality that he and his helped drive and what is going to get a lot worse after the $6 trillion bailout they received (probably even more by now). Yup, some real hone$ty there. What a devil.
As the number of coronavirus cases grew in the United States over the past month, economists have furiously revised forecasts downward.
Just like the death counts from that Imperial College professor that kicked this all off, and the Globe turns to Goldman Sachs for analy$i$.
Perhaps the only silver lining is that as dark as the forecasts have become, some economists see the potential for a significant rebound later this year and into 2021.
That's what Goldman is expecting, but not Rosengren.
The short-term outlook has been dire because officials have forced the economy into hibernation in order to save lives, but long term, that makes financial sense. One MIT study of the 1918 flu pandemic found that cities that acted more aggressively to limit social and civic interactions saw more economic growth once restrictions were lifted.
I don't trust Military-Industrial Tech reports, sorry, and it's a lot different now than in 1918, but at least the Globe reporters got one thing right. They didn't blame the virus for the $hutdown, they blamed officials.
Btw, doesn't this $hutdown make the government $hutdown you never even noticed pale by compari$on? Remember those politic brawls over $hutdowns?
Still, when it comes to propping up the economy during the pandemic, the federal government has taken aggressive action so any downturn doesn’t turn into a Great Depression.
Yeah, still! Ignore everything they just said!?!
Too late anyway for the federal government, which is nothing more than a $lave to the Federal Re$erve.
The Fed, for example, has taken a number of steps to ease the flow of credit and cash: lowering the federal funds rate to near-zero, buying up Treasury bonds, stabilizing money market funds. Congress just passed a huge $2 trillion economic rescue package, aimed in part at helping small businesses weather the storm and giving laid-off workers a financial lifeline by boosting unemployment benefits.
See:
President Trump signed the $2 trillion stimulus bill into law. (Pool/Photographer: Pool/Getty Images)
You gotta love the social distancing, no?
Rosengren says it won't be enough:
How effective these extreme measures will be, Rosengren said, remains to be seen. He said he is hopeful that the Fed and Congress can minimize some of the hits the economy is taking, but he thinks small businesses will likely need additional help.
“My guess is it won’t be enough,” Rosengren said of the current package. “Many small businesses are going to experience problems for a much longer period of time than the support in the current draft of the legislation.”
If you read the Fine Print you find they are going to go out of business, and then the Fed and others can swoop in and scoop them up for pennies on the dollar.
Maybe e$$ential manufacturers can make up the difference.
James Rooney, chief executive of the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce, agreed. He moderated a conversation online on Wednesday afternoon with the Fed president as nearly 800 members listened in.
“Small businesses, in particular, they don’t have the cash reserves to withstand a moment like this," said Rooney. "The biggest concern is their survivability.”
They better get a clue quick because they will not $urvive.
--more--"
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren (Steven Senne/Associated Press)
Have you noticed none of his kind have contracted the coronavirus?
You can add that Evil to the photo album as well as these:
EMT’s rushed a patient to the emergency room at Mass General Hospital on March 29. (Stan Grossfeld/ Globe Staff)
Sarah Dodson held up a string of uncut masks at the L.L. Bean plant in Brunswick, Maine. (Blake Nissen/for the Boston Globe)
Tej Dickens measured out the ties on masks behind a pile of incomplete boots at the L.L. Bean plant. (Blake Nissen/For the Boston Globe)
Somebody is due for an award:
"The Boston Globe won the Toner Prize for Excellence in National Political Reporting. Members of the winning team include national political reporter Jess Bidgood, staff photographer Erin Clark, Washington deputy bureau chief Liz Goodwin, national political reporter Laura Krantz, video producer Shelby Lum, staff photographer Jessica Rinaldi, political reporter Jazmine Ulloa, and staff photographer Craig F. Walker. Jim Puzzanghera, the Globe’s Washington bureau chief, applauded their efforts. “It’s easy to follow the pack in political coverage," Puzzanghera said. "It’s much more difficult to venture off the beaten path. This award recognizes the efforts of a team of talented journalists committed to bringing the Globe’s readers stories that nobody else is telling and explaining politics through the experiences of real people and not just pundits.” The Toner Prizes are named in honor of the late Robin Toner, who was the first woman to become national political correspondent for The New York Times. She was married to fellow journalist (and former Globe reporter) Peter Gosselin and was the mother of twins when she died in 2008 at the age of 54."
It's a $elf-$erving award!
Related:
"In 1722, The Courant newspaper of Boston first published a letter from a widow, “Silence DoGood.’’ It would be the first of several letters over the next six months in which the writer robustly and wittily skewered the Massachusetts Bay Colony’s institutions, including Harvard, captivating the paper’s readers. Even James Franklin, The Courant’s publisher, did not know who she was. When her identity was revealed, Franklin was furious: It was his kid brother, Franklin, who at 16 was an apprentice in the paper’s print shop. The brothers parted ways, with Benjamin Franklin leaving Boston to start his own printing career in Philadelphia."
"Imagine browsing through the history of the Salem Witch Trial or the Whittier Home in Amesbury where American Quaker poet and abolitionist John Whittier wrote much of his work from the comfort of your home. These and other historical and cultural sites are featured on a new website called heritageathome.org launched recently by the Essex National Heritage Area in response to the COVID-19 pandemic that has shuttered these sites and cultural resources across Massachusetts. Visitors to the website can link to dozens of historical sites, museums, galleries and libraries across Essex County. There’s also links to outdoor natural resources, such as the Georgetown-Rowley State Forest and the Castle Nick River Reservation in Ipswich, and other spots available for a leisurely walk. Visitors are advised to practice social distancing, even when outdoors."
I guess this couple didn't get the message:
Geoff Leary and his wife Kathy Fee drove non-stop in their SUV from their condo in Vero Beach, Fla., to their home in Eastham, worried about COVID-19 germs at hotels along the route. They are happy to be home. (John Tlumacki/Globe Staff)
Oh, it's the $nowbird's dilemma by one of the worst reporters they have, and one of those columns on which I won't waste my time (I guess he better be praying about God's Judgement).
Here is a quick look at $tocks:
"US stocks tank as bleak news mounts on health, economic fronts" by Jacob Bogage and Thomas Heath Washington Post, April 1, 2020
Stocks descended deeper into their month-long funk Wednesday as the nation entered one of its most dire periods in memory. Coronavirus deaths are rapidly piling up, vast swaths of the population are stuck in their homes, and tens of millions are hurting while the health crisis squeezes the life out of the economy.
I swear these eliti$t $cribes are telegraphing stuff with their atrocious word choices.
As the country looks for a whisper of good news on the health or economic fronts, Wednesday’s waterfall plunge in stock markets says Wall Street is bracing for economic damage after just finishing one of its worst quarters ever.
Investors read President Trump’s admonition on Tuesday that the country should be prepared for a ‘‘a hell of a bad two weeks’’ as a signal that the economy would not be spared in the upcoming carnage.
Well, we know he is powerless from the photos, but thank you for the warning, Mr. President.
‘‘We are in for shockingly bad labor market numbers in Thursday’s unemployment claims,’’ said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.
Sanders better not be the nominee then! The Democrat then might just win!
The Dow Jones industrial average finished Wednesday’s session with a 973-point loss. Overseas markets had a difficult slog on the heels of President Trump’s warning for the upcoming month.
Oh, it's a SLOG -- like what Rumsfeld said about Iraq after the invasion.
The global plunge came as no surprise following the White House’s bleak outlook Tuesday for the pandemic’s spread in the United States. President Trump said the mitigation tactics employed by health officials presented a best-case scenario of 100,000 to 240,000 fatalities. Confirmed US cases topped 200,000 on Wednesday as the nation broadens its testing to fight the wildfire-spread of the disease.
They are still using those fraudulent numbers to crash this economy and step on the ho$e.
Evil.
Thursday’s eagerly-awaited unemployment numbers is an early indicator of what is expected to be a long winter of discouraging financial, business, and employment data.
It's already spring!
The Washington ComPost reporter doesn't even know what season it is!
How can we believe anything they tell us?
‘‘In the upcoming earnings season, most corporate managements will have nothing to offer but uncertainty about how bad their results will be over the rest of the year,’’ said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. ‘‘After accentuating the positives in the war against the virus last week and rotating out of bonds and into cheap stocks, investors are hunkering down in the trenches again.’’
Investor anxiety surfaced alongside the coronavirus’ contagion in the US several weeks ago. The result has been big stock market swings not seen in years. Numerous milestones, from daily point plunges to percentage gains to worst monthly and quarterly declines, have fallen or nearly fallen. The Dow capped its worst-ever first quarter on Tuesday with a 400-point loss.
That's where the print dropped off.
All but two of the Dow 30 shares finished in the red Wednesday, with aerospace giant Boeing and American Express the biggest drags. Boeing had been on a resurgence last week, nearly doubling its price as investors calculated that the $2 trillion federal relief package would aid the airplane manufacturer, but Boeing’s share price has retreated in the last few sessions, and on Wednesday it was hovering around $130 per share. Late last week the price was $180.
I am of the opinion that the criminal airline Boeing should be put out of business. They knew there were problems with the flight software, didn't tell the pilots about it, and let two planes crash killing over 300 people. That's criminal, but not in AmeriKa.
Walmart and Procter & Gamble were the only blue chips scoring gains Wednesday. Utilities and real estate were the worst performers among the 11 S&P stock sectors, all of which were in the red for the day. Utilities, real estate firms and banks could get hurt if consumers lose their jobs and are unable to pay mortgage and power bills.
At least the panic buying helped $omebody, but what if the power goes out?
As for the banks, they will be happy to take your home -- like last time! That will make their bottom line look good when its balanced with tangible assets. That's why they want you out of business or work.
An epic decline in oil prices continues to wreak havoc on markets, threatening millions of jobs and the rich dividends prized by shareholders. Whiting Petroleum Wednesday was the first shale oil company to declare bankruptcy as debt-burdened shale drillers — also known as frackers — are pressed by the decline in prices.
That was their shot across our bow.
The price of a barrel of US crude oil inched to $21.04 on Wednesday after Trump announced that he would meet with oil executives on Friday in an effort to limit supply and push prices higher. Oil prices are currently less than half of what many US producers need to make a profit and meet obligations. Once known for jawboning the Saudis to pump more oil and thereby lower the price, the president now finds himself in the uncomfortable position of trying to raise oil prices so US energy companies can earn a profit.
Good luck priming that pump, Mr. President, and if that is the case, why are the Saudis shipping us supertankers full of oil?
Oil prices fell the most ever last month due falling demand and a nasty, race-to-the-bottom price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the worlds biggest suppliers.....
Taking all of us down with it.
--more--"
UPDATE: Stocks close up after wobbly day on Wall Street
Just keep on truckin', right?
"Despite crisis, they keep on trucking to meet the demands of consumers" by Anissa Gardizy Globe Correspondent, April 1, 2020
Social distancing is nothing new for Jonathan Williams, 59, who operates an open-deck trailer that last week was filled with guard rails for a bridge project in Massachusetts, and even as the COVID-19 pandemic has forced a majority of people to work from home, Williams, like most of the nation’s 3.5 million drivers, has kept rolling, trying to mitigate unprecedented supply chain disruptions by continuing to move goods around the nation.
“There is a heroic, quiet nature about what they are doing,” said Claude Pumilia, CEO of the online freight marketplace DAT Solutions. “They are continuing to drive and make the supply chain work — these are people on the front lines.”
Drivers themselves seem less eager to acknowledge the heroic aspect of their jobs in the midst of the health crisis.
“I am not too concerned about it. I just stay away from people, keep my hands washed, and go about my normal day,” Williams said, taking a break at the Framingham service plaza on the Massachusetts Turnpike, but even going about his normal day, which can include up to 11 hours of driving, the Pittsburgh native faces challenges because of pandemic-related restrictions in multiple states.
I hope the reporter and photographer kept a proper social distance.
Simple pleasures, like sitting in a restaurant for dinner, are pretty much on hold.
“I don’t care about seeing people — and I can eat breakfast and lunch off the deck of my trailer — but when it comes down to my evening meal, I like to sit down and relax and enjoy some decent food,” he said, “and I don’t want to do that in the truck I have been in for 11 hours straight.”
Look on the bright side; no more need for Zantac.
Ultimately, Williams said, it is the “luck of the draw” every time he drives through a state in terms of how its COVID-19 response will affect his daily routine.
“It seems like it is more on this end of the country than the middle,” he said. "The middle of the country is still kind of flexible — they are taking precautions, but they are not overboard.”
Robert Carroll, who was delivering trees from Tennessee to a farm in Medford last week, said closed restaurants have it made it more difficult for him to find food. Luckily, he’s always stocked up on nutrition shakes from Walmart, in case he finds himself in a pinch.
“You can get a good day or a bad day,” the Connecticut native said while his truck was being unloaded. “When you find food, you have to take the food out and eat in the truck — but at the same time you don’t mind, because you are wondering if you could have been eating next to a person [with COVID-19].”
He said he started to see the effects of the coronavirus two weeks ago when a usually busy rest area in Connecticutwas practically empty. “Normally you walk in and it is bustling with people, but there was almost nobody there,” he said. “A young lady was wearing a mask to protect herself, and it was obvious to me that she was scared,” but regardless, the trucking industry is booming.
Last week, the national load-to-truck ratio — how many loads of freight need to be moved, compared with trucks available — was up 150 percent from the same time last year, according to DAT Solutions, and it has been steadily climbing for the past eight weeks.
That's part of the forced labor tran$formation, and you only matter if you are e$$ential.
John Anthony was delivering pork last week to a distribution center in Wilmington, and he said he’s been getting more loads from food companies such as Tyson Foods and Perdue Farms.
“That’s more miles for me, because stores need more food,” the 31-year-old Georgia native said, but Carroll who has been driving trucks for 28 years, worries there might be a slowdown for the types of freight he has been moving. Nurseries are not scrambling to restock trees, he said, during what would normally be the start of a busy season for yard work and landscaping.
He can cross this stop off his list:
"Dean & DeLuca Inc., the pioneering gourmet grocer that shuttered its New York stores last year, filed for bankruptcy with hopes of revitalizing the chain. The company’s goal is to cut a restructuring deal with creditors and eventually reopen its stores, according to Chapter 11 papers filed late Tuesday in US Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. The filing follows a failed effort to restructure outside of court. Dean & DeLuca ceased operations in New York in mid-2019 after running short of cash."
You don't want to drive into Manhattan anyway.
“I’m worried that I’m going to run out of work in a week or two,” he said. “People can still go out and buy trees, but they won’t want to because of the economy.”
He’s also concerned about his health.
“I do have some anxiety,” the 64-year-old said. “I think some truck drivers are staying home out of fear, and I worry that just by luck of the draw [I’ll get it].”
Pumilia, of DAT Solutions, said he’s heard the same concerns from drivers who are aware of the risk of traveling during the pandemic.
“Some drivers are worried about bringing an infection back to their families,” he said. “They are kind of quarantined in their cabs, but they worry about interactions at truck stops and places where they pick up shipments.”
For now, however, most drivers are trying to focus on the few positive aspects of the coronavirus, like less traffic, as they continue to do their essential work.
Can you pull the truck over to side so I can get out a puke?
I find nothing "positive" in this whole f***ing thing!
“They are out there, putting themselves at risk making sure they are delivering,” said Jeff Hopper, chief marketing officer of DAT Solutions. “Some of the amenities they rely on to make their route are shut down; they are going above and beyond the call of duty.”
Thank you.
--more--"
Also see:
Robert Carroll in the cab of his truck, which has been his home on the road for more than 28 years. (David L. Ryan/Globe Staff).
Looks like he has had a few too many.
Jonathan Williams has continued to work despite the crisis but has altered his routine because of rest stops' changing practices. (David L. Ryan/Globe Staff)
Trucks traveled along the Mass. Pike in Grafton last week. (David L. Ryan/Globe Staff)
Time for a smoke break:
Associated Press
Now a quick call to find out your next stop:
"Mobile carrier T-Mobile has completed the takeover of smaller rival Sprint, creating a new wireless giant that rivals AT&T and Verizon in size. The companies announced the deal, valued at $31.6 billion based on T-Mobile’s closing stock price Tuesday, two years ago. It has taken a long time to close because of pushback from state and federal regulators. The Federal Communications Commission and the Department of Justice approved the deal last year, with DOJ telling the companies that they must set up satellite TV company Dish as a new wireless carrier — an unusual arrangement — in order to win approval. Public-interest groups said this was insufficient to correct the harms from the merger."
Because of the 5G?
And when he got there, the.... hardware store was closed?
After 101 years in business, B.L. Ogilvie's hardware store and lumberyard will close its doors for good, citing a decline in income paired with coronavirus troubles. (topic: reporter: coronavirus (COVID-19). topic: reporterMatthew J. Lee)
"Weston hardware to close after 101 years in business amid coronavirus impact" by Matt Berg Globe Correspondent, March 30, 2020
After more than a century in business, family-owned hardware store and lumberyard B.L. Ogilvie & Sons in Weston will close its doors Friday, highlighting the devastating impact the coronavirus pandemic has had on struggling small businesses.
They are first of what will be many.
Over the past year, the Weston hardware store saw a steady drop in income, making it difficult to sustain the shop that has served the local community since 1919. With the added turbulence caused by the pandemic in recent weeks, the final blow was dealt.
They rose out of the ashes of the Spanish Flu!
“It was getting to the point of closing anyhow, and the coronavirus just kind of did the rest of it for us,” said Kevin Whittemore, the president of the company.
Put you out of your mi$ery like a mercy killing, huh (blog editor shudders)?
Whittemore announced the closing on the company’s website, retracing the shop’s humble beginnings as a post-World War l business that started off delivering coal by horse and cart to heat homes in the community, and Ogilvie’s is still seen as an important part of Weston, making the list for essential businesses allowed to remain open under Governor Charlie Baker’s order last week, but that wasn’t enough to keep the store open and drive customers in.
As he turns 65 years old this year, Whittemore plans on going into “semi-retirement” following the closure of his store. His emotions about the decision aren’t solely negative, despite the store being in the family since his great-grandfather opened it.
“It’s bittersweet, you know, it’s been a family business,” he said.....
And a way of life.
--more--"
Also see: Bo$ton Globe Family Photo Album
That's all we will have of it, other than crappy TV reruns ad nauseam.
