That concern is no less serious today, on the eve of the departure of thousands of US troops. But even as US leaders continue to emphasize the importance of the antiopium effort, some officials are privately conceding that there is little chance for its large-scale success before the end of the NATO military mission in 2014.  

It's not meant to succeed for certain rea$ons, and for the NYT to continue to flog away is really very revealing.

The withdrawal is one worry. As the money from the Western military and civilian aid programs dwindles, the relative importance of opium to the economy is likely only to increase, said Jean-Luc Lemahieu, the director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in Afghanistan.

“Some money is available through the licit economy, but less than in the past as the Western contracts dry up, and so the importance of the illicit, informal economy will increase: human trafficking, gems, timber, and weapons smuggling, and of course narcotics is a huge chunk of it,’’ he said, adding: “The prognosis post-2014 is not a positive one.’’

By any measure this war has been an abysmal failure. Abysmal.

Opium poppy, much like the coca grown in Colombia and Peru, poses a number of problems because there is so much money to be made that powerful political players, from police chiefs to governors, inevitably want a cut.

(Blog editor lol)

The Taliban also support the drug trade, directly by protecting opium farmers, and indirectly by shielding traffickers, who pay off everybody in order to move their products quickly to the borders, according to narcotics experts at the UN and the Afghan government.

Come on, guys, stop it.

“Drugs are not the only priority issue for Afghanistan,’’ said William R. Brownfield, the State Department’s assistant secretary for international narcotics and law enforcement, in an interview this month. “But by the same token, if you do not address the drug issue you will not succeed in the other security, stability, democracy, prosperity objectives you are aiming for.’’

Despite all the effort, there are many troubling indicators. Nationwide, the number of poppy-free provinces, which reached a high of 20 in 2010, has now dropped to at least 17 and could be found to be still lower once researchers finish surveying remote provinces. Overall acres under poppy cultivation began rising again in 2009 after a significant drop the year before, and the total has grown slowly but steadily since. Interdiction, while somewhat improved under new Afghan counternarcotics leadership, nets only about 3.5 percent of the 375 tons of heroin that leaves the country every year, according to the UN.

Even the success stories are unlikely to be sustainable, officials say. The prime example is the combined US and British counternarcotics campaign in the Helmand River Valley, in the heart of the province that produces nearly half of Afghanistan’s opium.

Since its start in 2009, the military mission has coincided with a 33-percent decrease in opium poppy cultivation in the area, and concurrent programs to create alternative jobs and crops have had a significant effect there.

But the troops are leaving - as many as 14,000 US Marines could depart Helmand by the end of the year - and many of the incentive programs are closing down unless Afghanistan’s counternarcotics minister can persuade the West to renew them.

“We have to watch the answer develop over the next 6 to 12 months,’’ Brownfield said, speaking of the effects of the military withdrawal. “That’s what transition is all about - we’re changing from a known to an unknown.’’   

The devil you know.... does drugs.

This year’s low opium harvest has thrown another element of unpredictability into the picture.

Yeah, except when it comes to make deposit$ in the money-laundering bank account$!!

It has already driven a few farmers to commit suicide and others to flee because they feared retribution from creditors, according to the governor’s office in Helmand.   

Oh, the same things happening to farmers in India due to the promotion of GMOs, and others around the planet under the excuse of austerity.

But rather than serving as a disincentive, the poor crop is more likely to prompt many to plant even more poppy next year to make up for this year’s losses. That was the pattern in previous blight seasons, like 2010. 

Either way, banks win.

Amin, the poppy farmer in Tirin Kot, says that despite the risks, there is nothing to replace opium: “The poppy is always good, you can sell it at any time. It is like gold, you can sell it whenever and get cash.’’  

I was told above the alternative crop progra.... never mind.

The price for opium at the farm gate has soared - up more than 50 percent from a month ago and now selling for more than $160 per pound - another factor likely to spur more planting, Lemahieu said. Traffickers, who stockpile opium from year to year, are making a killing, he said.

More black profit$ for more black ops for US intelligence agencies.

On the Afghan side, the minister for counternarcotics, Zarar Ahmad Muqbel Osmani, has increased poppy eradication efforts in areas where farmers can grow other crops and is lobbying to expand the alternative crop program.  

How are they doing that?

But he remains deeply frustrated with the overall lack of law enforcement.

Asked what it would take to affect the country’s drug problem, he answered tersely, “Political will.’’

--more--" 

I noticed the NYT omitted the chemical warfare that has been waged against Afghans in the name of eradication: 

U.S. Wages Chemical Warfare on Afghanistan
U.S. Pushes For More Chemical Warfare on Afghanistan

Yeah, right, we aren't doing that anymore.