Sunday, July 13, 2014

Sunday Globe Special: Kerry Moons Iran

"The United States — which is sending Secretary of State John Kerry — is putting on a good face."

Maybe that will get the war going!!

"Expectations over the Iran nuclear talks fade further" by George Jahn | Associated Press   July 13, 2014

VIENNA — Decisions by the foreign ministers of Russia and China to skip talks on Iran’s nuclear program this weekend are further denting expectations that the stalled negotiations will produce a deal by July 20.

I think they recognize, like the rest of us do, that trying to negotiate with the EUSraeli Empire is like trying to cut a deal with Hitler.

The United States — which is sending Secretary of State John Kerry to join three other ministers — is putting on a good face. State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf says the six powers talking with Iran remain ‘‘united in the negotiating room, as we always have.’’

All the imagery and illusion can't cover that sorry ass. 

NEXT DAY UPDATE: Secretary of State John Kerry failed

What more do you need to read, and what else is new?

But the absence of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is noteworthy, in light of suggestions by France that Moscow is deviating from joint negotiating stances with Iran.

It may also reflect recognition that the two sides are too far apart, and the talks will have to be extended. The most important disputes over how deeply Iran must cut its nuclear program to gain sanctions relief are between Washington and Tehran, so Kerry’s presence is important.

He will be able to talk directly to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who is already at the Vienna talks.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, and German Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier are also attending. But the absence of Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi could be detrimental — it took foreign ministers or their deputies of all six nations to negotiate a preliminary deal with Tehran in November.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke Saturday of ‘‘huge and deep’’ differences. But he told Iranian TV that ‘‘if no breakthrough is achieved, it doesn’t mean that [the] talks have failed.’’

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RelatedMajor powers try to salvage Iran talks

Not trying very hard, imho.

"Five myths about Iran’s nuclear program" by Ariane Tabatabai |    July 10, 2014

TEHRAN

As the July 20 deadline approaches for a final agreement between the West and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program, it is vitally important to understand both sides’ positions. Here are five myths about Iran’s nuclear program.

Myth 1: Iran’s supreme leader will block a favorable deal.

The general view in the West is that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is the hard-liners’ flag bearer and an obstacle to the conclusion of a deal. This could not be further from the truth. In many ways, Khamenei has been a moderating agent in the polarization of the domestic debate around the nuclear issue. He has reiterated a number of times that he fully supports the negotiating team, while reminding everyone that they should keep their expectations low. This is certainly due to the deep distrust between Iran and the United States. But it is also informed by the opposition of US hard-liners to any diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. By inviting the hard-liners to tone down their criticism of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, Khamenei is paving the way for Zarif’s team to effectively pursue a deal and receive sanctions relief, while hedging for failure.

Myth 2: The fatwa against nuclear weapons is bogus.

Tehran says that the “production, stockpiling, and use” of nuclear weapons are prohibited by Islamic law and that the highest authority in the country, the supreme leader, has issued a fatwa, or religious decree, to this effect. Many in the West question the validity and utility of such a decree. But the decree can serve a key purpose in the talks. Discourse doesn’t replace compliance, and trust can’t be built without verification, but the fatwa can be an additional confidence-building measure. The decree and its reiteration by various Iranian religious authorities and policymakers have made it extremely difficult for Iran to overturn its position. Stating time and time again over the course of more than a decade that something is prohibited, then violating that prohibition, would come at great political cost, delegitimizing the regime entirely from within.

Myth 3: Iran just wants to defy the international community.

Iranian concerns are often dismissed as mere manifestations of the country’s lack of commitment to its international obligations. Ali Asghar Soltanieh, the former Iranian ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, recently told me that Tehran could have withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. This, he argued, would have been understandable and natural, given the change in regime. At that point, many countries had not even joined the treaty. But Iran chose to stay. Later, Soltanieh said, Tehran signaled its willingness to cooperate with the agency in the context of the technical cooperation program. Iran is not just trying to defy the international community; it has legitimate concerns, which must be addressed, or at least recognized and understood.

Myth 4: Iran doesn’t even need nuclear energy.

Western hard-liners certainly did not see eye to eye with Iranian revolutionaries in the 1970s and ’80s, but both groups then questioned the utility of a nuclear program in an “energy superpower.” While Iranian revolutionaries now think a nuclear energy program is needed, Western critics continue to argue that it is not. After all, Iran holds the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest gas reserves. Tehran, then, they argue, must not have any legitimate needs for a nuclear energy program. Therefore, the only reason for Iran’s nuclear program must lay in its military ambitions. But, as other energy superpowers (including some of Iran’s neighbors) are showing, abundant oil and gas reserves are no reason for a country not to pursue other energy sources. Diversification, after all, is something all countries seek. But Tehran has other plans that go beyond nuclear power; arguments for the production of radioisotopes for medical purposes have been presented a number of times. One area that is not discussed as much is desalination, an energy-intensive process that Iran will have to consider more seriously as it deals with growing water scarcity. As noted by Soltanieh, Iran already has plans to this effect, including a contract with Japan for a desalination facility next to its Bushehr nuclear power plant.

Myth 5: Other states in the region are threatened by Iran’s program.

While this is true, it’s not necessarily due to the reasons US officials often present. Many states in the region, especially those that have been vocal in their criticism of Iran’s nuclear program, feel threatened not by the prospects of a nuclear Iran, but by Iranian-Western rapprochement. Political and economic isolation have helped states like Saudi Arabia, who fear losing their military, economic, and political ties and privileges with the United States. After all, Tehran and Washington did have close relations prior to 1979 and, given that the two countries have a lot in common, they could develop ties again.

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Still thirsting for more?

"Iran faces risk of severe water crisis" by Jason Rezaian | Washington Post   July 03, 2014

TEHRAN — Iran is headed for a water shortage of epic proportions, and little is being done to reverse a decades-long trend that has reduced the country’s water supply to crisis levels.

Changes in the global climate, a century of rampant development, and heavy subsidies on water and other utilities are all contributing to a situation that is likely to get much worse.

‘‘Our water usage is twice the world standard, and considering the situation in our country, we have to reduce this level,’’ Massoumeh Ebtekar, a vice president and the head of Iran’s Department of Environment, said in a recent speech.

Iranians use 250 liters of water per day, on average. They use much less water than Americans, who lead the world at nearly 400 liters per day, but Iran and other dry Middle Eastern countries do not enjoy the abundance of fresh water the Americas and Europe have. 

The 1% must be sucking the shit up.

Accurate data for Iraq and Afghanistan are not available, but other Persian Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, consume water at levels similar to Iran, although their populations are much smaller.

With Iran’s annual precipitation at a third of the global average, overconsumption has ravaged water resources. A 2013 study by the World Resources Institute ranked Iran as the world’s 24th most water-stressed nation, putting it at extremely high risk of future water scarcity.

Maybe Israel could help.

Iran has several large desalination projects — it even plans to sell water to neighboring countries — but converted saltwater is seen as a solution only for areas close to the country’s two main saltwater sources, the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf. The transportation costs of moving water to the remotest regions of Iran are too high.

Throughout Iran, landscapes are being transformed as scientists warn that the already arid country runs the risk of becoming a vast desert. Urmia, a salt lake in Iran’s northwest, once the largest in the Middle East, has been depleted to just 5 percent of its former volume over two decades. The Zayandeh river is mostly a dry bed. It has been diverted and dammed to help irrigate farms.

Iranians won't be able to wash arse.

Disappearing lakes and rivers are the symptoms, but the root causes are less visible, stemming from the techniques and habits of a more traditional and less mechanized era.

‘‘In less than 50 years, we’ve used all but 30 percent of our groundwater supply, which took a million years to gather, and it’s getting worse and worse due to unsustainable development,’’ said Nasser Karami, an Iranian physical climatologist who is currently an associate professor at the University of Bergen in Norway.

Iran’s population has more than doubled since the 1979 revolution and has grown eightfold since 1900.

????? 

SeeSunday Globe Special: Iranian Litter

WTF?! 

Maybe you should take a shot at this because I'm sick of the mixed messages. 

Any you wonder why I no longer want to do this, do you?

After six years of below-average rainfall, few Iranian authorities acknowledge the seriousness of the problem, instead offering quick-fix solutions. But in recent days, Karaj, a sprawling suburb of Tehran with 1.6 million inhabitants, implemented rationing. Other major cities seem certain to follow suit.

Environmental experts say that any solution will need to extend beyond conservation to include a long-term strategy to reverse the damage done to groundwater supplies.

I sure as hell hope they are not fracking.

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