But not over this issue:
"Results of surveys on gay marriage not reflected at polls; But votes in fall could end streak of state bans" by David Crary |
Associated Press, May 28, 2012
NEW YORK - Poll after poll shows public support for
same-sex marriage steadily increasing, to the point where it is now a
majority viewpoint. Yet in all 32 states where gay marriage has been on
the ballot, voters have rejected it.
What, another skewed, agenda-pushing, AmeriKan media poll? Yawn.
It is possible the streak could end in November, when Maine,
Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington state are likely to have closely
contested gay marriage measures on their ballots.
But for now, there remains a gap between the national polling results
and the way states have voted. It’s a paradox with multiple
explanations, from political geography to the likelihood that some
conflicted voters tell pollsters one thing and then vote differently.
“It’s
not that people are lying. It’s an intensely emotional issue,’’ said
Amy Simon, a pollster based in Oakland, Calif. “People can report to you
how they feel at the moment they’re answering the polls, but they can
change their mind.’’
California experienced that phenomenon in November 2008, when voters,
by a 52-48 margin, approved a ban on same-sex marriage in the state
constitution. A statewide Field Poll that September indicated
Proposition 8 would lose decisively; an updated poll a week before the
vote still showed it trailing by 5 percentage points.
California is an unusual case. It is one of a few reliably
Democratic states that have had a statewide vote rebuffing same-sex
marriage. The vast majority of the referendums have been in more
conservative states, which have a greater predilection for using ballot
measures to set social policy. The 32 states that have rejected gay
marriage at the polls make up just over 60 percent of the US population.
Voters in liberal states such as Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut,
and New York, where gay marriage was legalized by judges or
legislators, might vote to affirm those decisions but have not had the
opportunity.
Most of the states that voted against gay marriage did so between
2004 and 2008. Since then, only Maine in 2009 and North Carolina on May 8
have rebuffed same-sex marriage in referendums, while legislatures in
Washington state, Maryland, New Jersey, Hawaii, New York, New Hampshire,
Rhode Island, Illinois, and Delaware have voted for same-sex marriage
or civil unions.
In all, there are now six states with legal same-sex marriage and
nine more granting gay and lesbian couples broad marriage-style rights
via civil unions or domestic partnerships. Together, those 15 states
account for about 35 percent of the US population.
Over the past year, there has been a stream of major national polls
indicating that a majority of people support same-sex marriage.
According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday, 53
percent of those questioned say gay marriage should be legal, a new high
for the poll, while 39 percent, a new low, say it should be illegal.
Political consultant Frank Schubert, a leading strategist for
campaigns against same-sex marriage in California and elsewhere, said
such polls are misleading, and he asserted that same-sex marriage would
be rejected if a national referendum were held now.
“The pollsters are asking if same-sex marriage should be legal or
illegal, and that phrasing is problematic because it implies some
government sanction against same-sex couples,’’ Schubert said. “People
want to be sympathetic to same-sex couples, so polls that use that
language aren’t particularly useful.’’
The more useful question, Schubert said, is whether marriage should
be defined as the union of a man and a woman - the gist of the
constitutional amendments approved in 30 states.
In California, same-sex marriage has such overwhelming support today
that Prop 8 almost certainly would be overturned if a new state
referendum were held, said Mark DeCamillo, director of the Field Poll in
California.
The latest Field Poll, in February, measured voter approval of gay
marriage among registered California voters at 59 percent, which was the
highest in 35 years of polling on the issue, while 34 percent
disapproved. In the first Field Poll on the topic, in 1977, 59 percent
opposed gay marriage and 28 percent were in favor.
Nonetheless, the largest gay-rights group in the state, Equality
California, remains cautious and is not ready to begin a campaign to
overturn Prop 8. A federal court has struck down the law, but that
ruling has been appealed.
California is among 30 states where voters have approved amendments
limiting marriage to unions a man and a woman. In Hawaii, voters passed
an amendment in 1998 empowering the Legislature to ban gay marriage,
which it proceeded to do. The ban remains in effect, though Hawaii
lawmakers approved civil unions last year.
The other statewide vote was in Maine in 2009, when 53 percent of the
voters overturned a law that would have legalized same-sex marriage.
The issue is back on Maine’s ballot for Nov. 6, with voters getting
another chance to approve same-sex marriage.
Just wondering “what is it about democracy that these groups don’t understand?’’
Schubert, who is advising
gay-marriage opponents in Maine, depicts it as the toughest contest for
his side among the four statewide elections this fall.
In Minnesota, voters will be deciding whether to approve a
gay-marriage ban similar to those in the other 30 states. In Maryland
and Washington, assuming enough signatures are gathered by gay marriage
opponents, there will be ballot measures seeking to overturn same-sex
marriage laws passed by legislators this year.
--more--"
Related: Obama camp says support growing for gay marriage
Also see: With This Ring I Thee Vote
I've made it clear on whose finger I'm putting it.
