BANGKOK - Protests in Myanmar over persistent power shortages have provided a test of how the country’s elected but military-backed government will respond to rising expectations sparked by the past year’s democratic changes.
Small demonstrations over the last week in Myanmar’s two largest cities and several towns could be seen as an indicator of the new openness under President Thein Sein, who has overseen the country’s emergence from decades of authoritarian rule and diplomatic isolation.
From another point of view, the peaceful protests, which
have been limited to a few hundred people, serve as a reminder of the
early stages of past unrest. Previous uprisings have started small and
snowballed into large-scale challenges to authority.
That means it was an intelligence agency coup attempt, folks. Sorry.
“Protests like this in Myanmar always have the potential to escalate and lead to political unrest,’’ said Trevor Wilson, a former Australian envoy to Myanmar who now teaches at Australian National University.
Thein Sein was prime minister of the previous repressive military government but shed his formal links with the army to run with its proxy political party in a 2010 general election. Those polls were boycotted by the party of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who was under house arrest at the time.
Last year, Thein Sein embarked on a reform program with the goal of winning an easing of economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union. That goal has largely been accomplished.
As a result of the changes, the government won the cooperation of Suu Kyi, once an implacable foe of army rule. Suu Kyi, who was freed after the 2010 elections, and her National League for Democracy party even agreed to run for Parliament in last month’s by-elections, winning 43 seats to play a small but historically significant legislative role.
Along with the revival of parliamentary politics, there has been a new assertiveness in civil society, especially in lobbying on environmental issues.
One campaign, opposing the Chinese-funded Myitsone hydropower dam on the Irrawaddy River, won an astonishing victory when the government announced the cancellation of the project.
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And the WWIII chess pieces are subtly nudged into place.
Still, the potential for conflict in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, lies in the space between the political changes achieved so far and the shortfall in other fundamental changes, particularly in the economy.
Suu Kyi has endorsed the protests, which have seen demonstrators holding candlelight vigils and marching in the streets.
I'm sorry, but I view this as a covert, controlled-opposition operation designed to pressure and destabilize if necessary. Maybe Burma backtracking a bit on cutting ties to China?
Speaking last week at the opening of a branch office for her party, Suu Kyi said: “The country suffers from power shortages because of mismanagement. I believe that the system has to be changed to get electricity or to get water or to get jobs.’’
The challengers to the government are the same activists who used to struggle against military rule, but are now emboldened by the new democratic opening.
Their antagonist is the same military that smashed their dreams five years ago. Though he came to power through election, Thein Sein heads a government that serves at the sufferance of the military.
Gee, does that ever sound familiar, American.
The immediate prospects for strife are hard to calculate. The protests have been peaceful and relatively unassertive so far, with the crowd in Yangon - Myanmar’s biggest city and formerly known as Rangoon - topping out at about 300 on Friday night.
The peaceful demonstrations continued for a fifth night Saturday in Yangon, though the number of protesters dropped to about 200.
The authorities are clearly nervous. In the central city of Mandalay, Special Branch political police held several protesters briefly for questioning.
On Thursday in the central town of Pyay, police pressure on demonstrators led to a brawl and six arrests.
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"Suu Kyi sworn in to Myanmar’s Parliament; Clinton praises step to democracy" by Aye Aye Win and Todd Pitman | Associated Press, May 03, 2012
NAYPYITAW, Myanmar -Some analysts see her entry into the legislative branch as a gamble that will achieve little beyond legitimizing a regime that needs her support to end years of isolation from the West and get lingering sanctions lifted....
Suu Kyi, 66, will have almost no power in the ruling-party dominated Parliament since her party will occupy only the few dozen seats it won in an April 1 by-election. But she will have an official voice in government for the first time....
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Related: Myanmar Monday
That's when they vote.
"Suu Kyi affirms reformist agenda" Associated Press, May 01, 2012
YANGON, Myanmar — Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi said Monday that although she and other lawmakers in her party will attend Myanmar’s Parliament on Wednesday for the first time, they will continue to seek constitutional change through legislative actions.
She said the lawmakers will take the oath of office even though they still fiercely dispute its wording. The oath is part of the constitution that Suu Kyi’s party is seeking to change, along with other statutes it considers undemocratic.
“Politics is an issue of give and take,’’ she told reporters in
Yangon. “We are not giving up; we are just yielding to the aspirations
of the people.’’
The party wants “safeguard’’ replaced with “respect,’’ a change made in other laws including electoral legislation that enabled Suu Kyi’s party to officially enter politics for the first time in decades.
But their failure to take up their seats had irked some of Suu Kyi’s backers, who are eager to see the person who has stood up to Myanmar’s military for 23 years finally take her place in the Legislature.
The apparent resolution of the deadlock came as United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was visiting Myanmar to encourage democratization.
Ban told reporters he respected Suu Kyi’s decision....
In an address to the country’s Parliament on Monday, Ban called for the international community to lift sanctions it imposed on Myanmar in response to the previous military junta’s repression and to increase aid for the country’s development.
“The best way for the international community to support reform is to invest in it,’’ he said.
Related: US eases investment ban on Myanmar
His visit is the latest in a series by foreign dignitaries since Thein Sein’s reform campaign gathered steam by winning Suu Kyi’s endorsement.
Thein Sein came to power a year ago after a general election that left the military in firm control but signaled a desire for political reconciliation.
The National League for Democracy participated in elections on April 1 for the first time since 1990, when it won a landslide victory that was promptly annulled by the army.
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Did you know, Suu Kyi is Burmese for CIA?
