He may not even win the nomination the way Ron Paul is accumulating delegates at state conventions.
"Mitt Romney lags with N.H. independents" by Christopher Rowland |
Globe Staff, May 25, 2012
Republican Mitt Romney’s resounding primary victory in New Hampshire
was tarnished by an underlying statistic: More than half of the
independents voting in the GOP contest, according to exit polls,
supported the second- and third-place finishers, Ron Paul and Jon
Huntsman.
Now evidence is emerging that a portion of those crucial swing voters
remains up for grabs or has gone elsewhere since Paul and Huntsman
dropped out of the presidential race, instead of getting in line behind
the all-but-certain Republican nominee.
Polls
have not been conducted on the specific question, but in telephone
interviews with the Globe this week, a number of Huntsman and Paul
backers said they are undecided or plan to support President Obama,
write in Paul’s name on the ballot, or back a third-party alternative.
I have not yet decided if it will be Obama, Paul, or Nader.
They cited a negative tone to Romney’s campaign, his shift to the
right in the primary, his reversals on some issues, including abortion,
and his hawkish stance on foreign policy.
To be sure, a significant number said they would support Romney or
were at least leaning in his direction. Those voters cited Romney’s
promises to strengthen the economy.
But the overall picture is one of a fracturing, not of consolidation
behind Romney, among independents who cast their ballots for his top
Republican rivals.
“You look at Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul, and they were clearly the two
outsider candidates when it came to the Republican Party
establishment,’’ said Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire
political science professor. “It makes sense their supporters might not
be all that thrilled about consolidating behind Romney for the general
election.’’
Independents casting ballots for Paul and Huntsman on Jan. 10
combined for around 60,000 votes, or about a quarter of the total
primary electorate, according to estimates based on exit polling. So
some fraction of those - in defections to Obama, write-ins for Paul, and
third-party votes - could number in the low tens of thousands.
“I think we’re talking about a small slice of the general
electorate,’’ Scala said. “If Romney fails to capture some of these
quirky Republican primary voters, and in exchange gets the Republican
base out to vote, that’s a trade-off he will gladly make.’’
In the 2008 general election, Obama beat Republican John McCain in
New Hampshire by about 68,000 votes. The margins were closer in 2000,
when George W. Bush beat Al Gore there by 7,200 votes, and in 2004, when
Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts won the state by 9,200 votes.
As far as the rigged machines were concerned anyway.
New Hampshire is seen as a critical state in the 2012 contest, even
with just four electoral votes, because the race between Romney and
Obama is so close nationally. With partisans on either side firmly
entrenched, independents are likely to decide who wins. The last poll by
the University of New Hampshire, in April, said Obama led Romney, 51 to
41 percent, among all voters. Of voters registered as independent,
Obama led 44 to 42 percent....
Among Paul primary election supporters, several independents who said
they will now vote for Obama said they also voted for Obama in 2008.
They were attracted to the Texas congressman, they said, because of his
dedication to upending the status quo, his libertarian views on social
issues, and his promise to withdraw US troops from posts around the
world.
Millions were and are.
Yes, "the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
A carpenter from Francestown, Adam Evans, said he will vote for Paul as a write-in, as a protest vote.
“I’m just fed up with them all,’’ he said.
John Vermillion, an IT supervisor for an insurance company who lives
in Strafford and backed Paul, also is choosing “none-of-the-above’’ when
it comes to the major parties. His choice will be Gary Johnson, the
former New Mexico governor and GOP candidate who is now running as the
Libertarian Party’s candidate.
“He may wind up as a spoiler, but from a position of conscience, I
can’t vote for either [of the] two major candidates,’’ he said. “That’s
where I have to put my vote, where my conscience is.’’
Which is why I may well write in Ralph Nader.
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