Thursday, September 25, 2014

Deflating Economic Post

I $uppo$e it mu$t be $een through the eyes of the central bank:

"Europe urged to launch major stimulus plan to avoid stagnation" by David Jolly | New York Times   September 16, 2014

PARIS — The European Central Bank should begin large-scale bond buying to ensure that weak price pressures do not further undermine demand in the eurozone, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Monday as it cut its forecast for growth in the developed world.

“A moderate expansion is underway in most major advanced and emerging economies, but growth remains weak in the euro area, which runs the risk of prolonged stagnation if further steps are not taken to boost demand,” the OECD said.

The United States will post 2014 growth in gross domestic product of just 2.1 percent, the organization said in an update to its annual forecasts, worse than the 2.6 percent it had previously expected.

The eurozone, with 18 member nations, will grow only 0.8 percent, the OECD said, revising its previous forecast of 1.2 percent.

“Given the low-growth outlook and the risk that demand could be further sapped if inflation remains near zero, or even turns negative, the OECD recommends more monetary support for the euro area,” the organization said. “Recent actions by the European Central Bank are welcome, but further measures, including quantitative easing, are warranted.”

Quantitative easing, a policy that has been used by the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England, involves the outright purchase of bonds on a large scale, flooding the financial system with money in an effort to broaden the availability of credit and lift economic growth.

But the wealth gains are flowing mainly to affluent no matter what their gender

All that did here was make a few people rich, raise stocks, and pile more unpayable debt on the people. Good luck.

The European Central Bank has become increasingly concerned about the very low inflation in the eurozone. Consumer prices rose just 0.3 percent in August from a year earlier, and there are warnings that a Japan-style crush of falling prices could lead consumers to delay purchases and push more borrowers into bankruptcy, with dire effects on the bloc’s already struggling lenders.

What if "consumers" simply have no more money because the addicted crowd is sucking it all up?

The bank announced new measures Sept. 4, including plans to begin buying packages of loans that banks bundle and sell to investors.

Do the same things that destroyed both the US and EU economies to extend this madne$$ out just a bit further, huh?

The central bank’s president, Mario Draghi, also said central bank officials were studying the possibility of enacting a program of quantitative easing.

That means printing money. That will make the value of a currency go down.

The OECD joins a growing chorus of economists in calling on the central bank to undertake quantitative easing. In July, the International Monetary Fund called for such measures.

All the more reason to oppose.

There is substantial opposition to quantitative easing in Germany.

Those Germans, always getting in the way of international bankers!

The OECD warned there were “many significant risks to the near-term outlook” for Europe, including geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Scottish independence vote on Thursday.

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Even the bankers are unenthu$ed:

"Weak demand from banks for ECB’s program of cheap loans" by Jack Ewing | New York Times   September 19, 2014

FRANKFURT — Banks borrowed less than expected from the European Central Bank in a disappointing start for a program intended to encourage more lending to businesses and households and put money into the ailing eurozone economy.

The central bank said Thursday that it would allot nearly $107 billion to 255 commercial banks next week. Estimates of how much money banks would borrow had varied widely, but many analysts said before the announcement that anything less than $129.1 billion would be a disappointment.

The program is part of a broader effort by the central bank to inject as much as $1.2 trillion into the eurozone economy, and the borrowing data Thursday was closely watched as an indicator of whether the central bank would be able to meet its goal. The loans are meant to drive down the cost of borrowing and encourage lending, especially in countries such as Italy or Portugal, where a lack of credit has impeded economic growth.

Their $elf-$erving $olution to everything is the failed policy of more loans!

The demand for the cheap loans “is disappointing and will raise further doubts about the feasibility of the ECB’s intention to increase its balance sheet by around 1 trillion euros [$1.2 trillion],” Martin van Vliet, an analyst at the Dutch bank ING, said in a note to clients.

But van Vliet added that he did not think the central bank would be alarmed by the outcome, because many banks may be waiting until December when the ECB will issue another round of the four-year loans.

In a statement, the ECB said that the money would support lending and was part of a package that “will have sizable impact.” In all, it plans to issue eight rounds of the four-year loans through June 2016.

Modest demand for the loans could prompt the central bank to be more aggressive next month when it begins buying bundles of mortgages, credit card debt, and other loans known as asset-backed securities.

Related: Inside Job

I suppose their is a $ucker born every minute. 

Nothing has changed, folks!!

The central bank has said that it will provide details of the securities purchases after its next monetary policy meeting, on Oct. 2.

Analysts regard the purchases of asset-backed securities as a mild form of quantitative easing, the large-scale purchases of assets that the Federal Reserve used to funnel money into the US economy.

Related: Fed Funnels Made Millions Off Mutual Fund Bailout

It's the u$ual suspects!

Unlike the Fed, the ECB does not yet plan to buy government bonds. But pressure to do so could rise if demand by commercial banks for ECB loans remains weak.

Under the program, banks can borrow money at a fixed annual interest rate of 0.15 percent for four years, but they must repay the money in two years if they do not use it to issue loans to businesses and individuals.

What else would they be doing with it?

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"Investors buy German debt at negative rates" by David McHugh | Associated Press   September 18, 2014

FRANKFURT — Investors have bought billions of euros in German treasury notes that pay negative interest, meaning the purchasers agreed to pay a small fee for the privilege of lending the German government their money.

The negative yield is a sign of the stresses in the 18-country eurozone, where the economy is struggling to maintain a weak recovery.

Germany auctioned $4.3 billion Wednesday in two-year notes at an average yield of minus 0.07 percent.

Rates are very low all over, and German debt is considered ultra-safe, so security-minded investors are paying for safety. Expectation that the European Central Bank will buy bonds has also driven down yields, which move opposite to prices.

The European Central Bank has slashed its interest rate benchmarks in an attempt to spur growth and lift inflation.

Its refinancing rate charged to banks for credit is at a record low 0.05 percent. Beyond that, it has said it will purchase bonds backed by bank loans and is considering even larger-scale purchases of government bonds.

Both would pump newly-created money into the economy, a step aimed at lowering interest rates even more and getting credit flowing to companies.

The threat faced by the central bank is anemic growth — the eurozone did not grow at all in the second quarter — compounded by alarmingly low rates of inflation. The current rate of an annual 0.4 percent is well below its goal of just under 2 percent.

Low inflation has raised fears of outright deflation or falling prices. Higher bond prices and lower yields could reflect increased expectations of deflation, because bond holders would be repaid in currency that is worth more.

Deflation can be poison for the overall economy, however, if it leads consumers to postpone purchases in the expectation that prices will fall further.

Or if we have no more money.

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"Fed signals it plans to stick with stimulus campaign" by Binyamin Appelbaum | New York Times   September 18, 2014

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve appeared to be playing for time, delaying decisions about its next steps for as long as possible as it grapples with the limits of its ability to improve economic conditions. Fed officials downgraded their expectations for growth in 2015 in forecasts published at the same time as the policy statement, suggesting they had once again overestimated the strength of the recovery.

And you wonder why I'm not listening to the banker's anymore?

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Despite the disappointing results, officials have generally concluded this is not a reason for the Fed to increase its efforts but instead evidence that the potential output of the economy has been permanently hurt by the Great Recession and by long-term problems, including an aging population.

Unless you are in the top 5%.

If the Fed pushes too hard, unsustainable growth could eventually generate inflation. If it stops pushing too soon, however, damage that could have been repaired by additional stimulus may last indefinitely: Many people who could have found jobs might never return to the work force.

That's okay. They won't be counted as unemployed.

Yellen spent much of her news conference avoiding questions about this balance, often taking considerable time to say very little.

Bankerspeak!

Still, simply by holding steady, the Fed is prolonging its effort to improve economic conditions, and supporters of the campaign applauded....

So they won't stop printing money in October like they said (as I said earlier and as we all knew they would not; if they stop those presses the whole pyramid collapses).

Jared Bernstein, a fellow at the Center on Budget Policy and Priorities and a former economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, wrote,  “The Fed’s the only game in town.” 

But it doesn't have to be!

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And when deflation is good:

"US consumer prices fall 0.2 percent in August" AP  September 18, 2014

WASHINGTON — US consumer prices edged down in August, the first monthly drop since the spring of 2013, as gasoline, airline tickets, and clothing prices fell. It was the latest evidence that inflation remains under control.

Consumer prices edged down 0.2 percent last month following a tiny 0.1 percent gain in July, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. It was the first decline since a similar 0.2 percent drop in April 2013. Core prices, which exclude energy and food, were unchanged in August, the first time there hasn’t been an increase since October 2010.

Over the past 12 months, overall prices and core prices are both up a modest 1.7 percent. These gains are well within the 2 percent annual increase for inflation that the Federal Reserve considers optimal.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that the drop in prices would give a ‘‘powerful boost’’ to ‘‘doves’’ on the Fed, officials who argue that at the moment unemployment and weak economic growth are bigger problems than the threat of future inflation.

A "dove" banker. 

More a like a vampire bat!

Analysts believe that inflation will remain moderate in coming months, helped by falling energy prices. AAA reports that the nationwide average for a gallon of gasoline is $3.38, down eight cents from a month ago and 14 cents lower than a year ago. 

I admit, the price of gas has dropped. It is because no one is driving to shop.

The recent decline in gasoline prices is one reason economists are optimistic that consumer spending will show solid gains in the coming months. A drop in gasoline prices means consumers will have more to spend on other items.... 

A few more cents gonna make a difference? Tired of the smiley-faced optimism of money-serving economists cited by the BG bu$ine$$ section, too.

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"US current account deficit dips to $98.5 billion" AP  September 18, 2014

WASHINGTON — The US current account trade deficit narrowed slightly in the April-June quarter, reflecting gains in exports of oil and civilian aircraft and a bigger surplus in Americans’ overseas investment earnings....

Economists carefully track the current account deficit because it is a measure of how much foreign financing the country needs....

The United States has benefited from a boom in oil and gas production, mostly because new drilling technologies have made it feasible to drill for oil and gas in states such as North Dakota, New York, and Pennsylvania.

Fracking is already a failing gold mine, but don't let that destroy the rah-rah narrative.

That has boosted petroleum exports and cut US dependence on foreign oil.

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