Still looking for Scott Brown’s worldview
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Scott Brown attacks Jeanne Shaheen in new TV spot
Them's fightin' words!
"Scott Brown riding an anti-Obama wave in N.H.; Brown gains on Shaheen as he ties senator to the president" by Joshua Miller | Globe Staff September 18, 2014
SALEM, N.H. — Voters have soured on President Obama. National and statewide trends favor Republicans. And here in his new home state, Scott Brown’s truck is gaining speed.
Analysts and recent polls have found Brown closing in on US Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the Democratic incumbent he is vying to unseat, in a race that has become increasingly nasty and expensive.
See: Obama looms large in N.H. Senate race
They are calling it the Obama drag.
Once largely dismissed by critics as an unlikely second act in a state he moved to only last year, Brown’s Senate bid is increasingly seen as a plausible path back to the US Capitol.
Observers see a race that may be largely determined not by Brown, a top-notch retail campaigner, or by Shaheen, a popular, longtime elected official, but by the national mood.
“In wave elections, as people find out, you can have been a good candidate and done a good job for your constituents and still find yourself swept out,” said Steve Duprey, New Hampshire’s Republican national committeman. “If there’s a national tide, it will roll here too.”
On the stump and in TV ads, Brown constantly ties Shaheen to Obama, who has a job approval rating of just 38 percent among likely New Hampshire voters, according to one poll released this week. The former Massachusetts senator rarely misses an opportunity to express his dismay that Shaheen votes in lockstep with the president or to nationalize the race, speaking about issues such as immigration and the threat from the burgeoning militant group in Iraq and Syria.
Shaheen, a onetime governor, repeatedly underscores her local achievements for the state — from working to protect a shipyard from closure and to helping veterans get easier access to health care. She attacks Brown as more keen on boosting his own career than aiding New Hampshire.
Analysts say Shaheen is running a campaign that fits the state and the darkening climate for her party. Still, the New Hampshire US Senate race “is getting more competitive,” said Jennifer Duffy, a specialist in US Senate races with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
She said the tightening in the contest is the result of several factors, including that the Granite State is “unusually susceptible” the national political climate.
Democrats across the state acknowledge Obama is now quite unpopular in a state he won twice, and that the Senate race is genuinely competitive. But they insist that no matter how friendly the terrain has become for the GOP, Brown’s trusty GMC truck doesn’t have the horsepower to overcome a local landscape cultivated for years by a longtime elected official, one who is still seen favorably by voters.
“In the end,” said Terry Shumaker, an active Granite State Democrat for decades and a former US ambassador, ”I don’t think that the president’s approval rating — and it may be much higher on Election Day — will trump Jeanne Shaheen’s reservoir of goodwill, all the things she did as governor, all her accomplishments as senator.”
He argued that voters in New Hampshire are sophisticated and know the difference between their senior senator and the president.
Duprey, the Republican committeeman, said that Shaheen knows “every nook and cranny of New Hampshire,” is very likable, and has one of the best constituent services operations.
But he said, because Shaheen votes so frequently with Obama, she has become inextricably linked to the president as his star falls and as the country’s foreign policy picture grows more grim.
The increasingly competitive contest is part of a national landscape in which Republicans are trying to win a net of six seats necessary to take control of the US Senate.
National Democrats remain bullish on the New Hampshire race, saying Shaheen remains somewhat insulated from the prevailing winds.
That's when you lose! It's hubris.
They point to a series of public polls that indicate likely voters see her more favorably than unfavorably, while more voters see Brown unfavorably than favorably.
But Brown aides say that their candidate’s emphasis on Shaheen voting so closely with Obama is having an impact, and their polling data show voters are starting to view the incumbent as part of the problem in Washington.
At a campaign event Wednesday, Brown said he is working hard to talk about the issues, from immigration to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to the Affordable Care Act.
“She can’t talk about those things because she is voting with the president 99 percent of the time,” he said, bemoaning the “constant barrage of negativity.”
Shaheen and her allies have been on the attack against Brown, saying in various ways that he’s looking out for himself, not everyday folks.
In a statement, Shaheen campaign manager Mike Vlacich said, “Since moving to New Hampshire just under a year ago, Scott Brown’s biggest accomplishments has been for himself.” He pointed to Brown’s position on the board of a company that Vlacich said has outsourced jobs overseas.
He echoed the tagline of a recent ad that savaged Brown: “Scott Brown. Not for New Hampshire. Never was. Never will be.”
Brown allies and aides brush off the attacks from Shaheen and her Democratic allies — part of millions of dollars in spending from both sides in the contest — as not particularly effective.
“There are so many attack ads in the water right now, I just don’t think they’re cutting through,” said campaign manager Colin Reed.
While ads on the airwaves can shift a race, the national climate is likely to have the biggest impact, analysts said. In recent elections where there was a national wave of support for one party, many races in New Hampshire went with it.
For example, in 2006, as voters weary of President George W. Bush swept Democrats to the majority in the US House, New Hampshire voted Democrats into both of the state’s congressional seats. In the GOP banner year of 2010, Republicans took back both congressional seats and won the open US Senate seat.
Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said Shaheen is “walking a tightrope right now, and that has a lot to do with the national environment.”
He noted polls have found she is more popular than the president, meaning there is a category of voters who see her, but not the president, favorably.
Between now and Nov. 4, he said, “Scott Brown’s job is convert as many of those voters as possible.”
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Related: Scott Brown receives Christie’s backing in N.H.
"Who wins Senate control? Nov. 4 might not decide" by Charles Babington | Associated Press September 22, 2014
WASHINGTON — A handful of tight races in states with quirky election laws could mean that Election Day will come and go without deciding which party controls the Senate.
If that happens, brace for a fierce runoff election and possible recounts that could make for an ugly holiday season in politics and government.
The main reason for uncertainty: Louisiana’s election laws. Strategists in both parties say a Dec. 6 runoff is likely because Senator Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, and top Republican challenger Bill Cassidy will struggle to exceed 50 percent on the crowded Nov. 4 ballot.
Related: Louisiana Lady
She's no longer a lock.
In Louisiana’s ‘‘jungle primary,’’ all candidates — regardless of party — run in November. If none exceeds 50 percent, the top two finishers head into a Dec. 6 runoff.
It’s plausible that control of the Senate could hang on a Louisiana runoff.
Republicans need six more seats to claim a 51-to-49 Senate majority. A 50-50 split would let Vice President Joe Biden break tie votes and keep Democrats in charge.
Republicans are strongly favored to win three races where Democratic senators are retiring: West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana.
Their best hopes to pick up three more seats are in the four contests where Democrats seek reelection in states President Obama lost: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina.
Republicans are also making strong bids in Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire, which Obama carried.
I counted ten flipping, more than enough. Looks like Mass. Democrats will be politically frail in the new Congre$$.
If Republicans win two of those races, plus the three where they are heavily favored, then all eyes and lots of campaign money would turn to Louisiana if there’s a runoff.
‘‘And I don’t think there’s any chance we don’t go into a runoff in Louisiana,’’ said Brian Walsh, a Republican adviser in Senate races.
A major GOP campaign group has reserved $4 million in Louisiana TV air time after Nov. 4, anticipating battling Landrieu through Dec. 6.
Waiting for a make-or-break Louisiana outcome would deeply affect the postelection congressional session scheduled to start Nov. 12. Congress must appropriate money in November to keep the government running, and it may revisit the president’s continued authority to arm Syrian rebels, among other considerations.
Already did the budget and war bills.
If Republicans think they will control the Senate in the new Congress set to convene Jan. 3, they may want to limit action in the Democratic-controlled lame-duck session. It’s almost certain that Republicans will retain their House majority.
Georgia’s Senate race could have an even messier outcome than Louisiana’s. GOP nominee David Perdue is thought to have a modest lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn in the race to succeed retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss.
But there’s a Libertarian on the ballot, who might win enough votes to keep Perdue and Nunn from reaching 50 percent. That would trigger a runoff Jan. 6, three days after the new Congress’ scheduled start.
It requires a lot of ‘‘ifs.’’ But a scenario in which Republicans entered the new Congress with a 50-to-49 Senate majority, while awaiting a Georgia outcome that could soon return them to the minority, would further roil an already bitterly partisan government.
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Also see: Kansas judges question why Democrat kept on ballot
Related: Tea Party Struck Out in Senate
What do you want? They were rigged primaries.
