UPDATE: Apparently many voters felt that way as turnout was abysmal. I did vote and cast it for Lynch. And your winners?
It will be.... drum roll, please... Gomez vs. Markey
I may not this time.
"A Senate race that has been hard to focus on; Candidates are campaigning hard but news events have conspired against them" by Frank Phillips | Globe Staff, April 28, 2013
Brutal snowstorms, an upheaval in Boston city politics, a contentious tax debate on Beacon Hill, and now terrorism at the Marathon. Since nearly the opening hours of the race to fill John Kerry’s US Senate seat, a series of events has smothered the campaign and raised serious questions over the efficacy of special elections.
For three months, the candidates — two Democrats and three Republicans — have been crisscrossing the state, airing commercials, and raising money, hoping to gain voters’ attention.
But they have found little success. With the primary election looming on Tuesday, the public appears to have barely taken notice. Despite several televised debates and a flurry of media coverage, the race has lacked the sort of robust and spirited discussions of issues and the vetting of candidates that has historically distinguished Massachusetts Senate campaigns.
Well, we know who is to blame for that.
Analysts cite a host of reasons: the inability of the candidates in either party to swiftly generate voter enthusiasm; the string of news and weather events in the last few months that consumed the media’s and public’s interest; and the voters’ fatigue after a year of intense politicking.
The sputtering race and the prospect that it will lure few people to the polls to fill such an important political position has prompted some strong criticism of the truncated special election system that Democrats created in 2004 to fill vacant US Senate seats.
“It’s no one’s idea of a functioning democracy,’’ said Thomas J. Whalen, a political historian and associate professor of social sciences at Boston University. “If the weather interferes, or there’s an act of God, or this tragedy we just experienced at the Marathon, it throws everything off base. It’s like a house of cards, one little thing will cause the electoral process to collapse.’’
Yeah, would would want to vote in a democracy? And what is this crap about f***ing up elections? They always seem to take place in the worst conditions in the world, and the U.S. hails the results if it is their man.
Evidence that the campaign has not captured voter interest can be found in the early requests for absentee balloting, prompting the state’s top election official to predict a low turnout.
A collapse that is not as much of a concern.
“These are abysmal numbers,’’ said Secretary of State William F. Galvin, citing the fact that applications are running about 25 percent the level in the primary for the 2010 special election. “It is depressing to see. There seems to be no momentum to the election.”
Other experienced observers of state politics agree. “This is like a race that didn’t happen,’’ said Gregory Torres, president of MassInc, a nonpartisan think tank that has in the past sponsored debates in statewide political races. “This is a United States Senate seat, for God’s sake. We need to have a much more vigorous debate and examination of the candidates and the issues.’’
In their last weekend before primary day, the candidates raced to make up for lost time, packing their schedules and sprinting across the state to meet voters at dozens of events.
But most acknowledged the attention deficit they face.
“So many of the voters are still trying to grasp what happened last week, and aren’t thinking about politics,” Lynch said after an event in Worcester on Saturday afternoon.
In an overtly political move, a coalition of Democratic leaders concocted the special election process in 2004, when Kerry was the Democratic presidential nominee. To prevent Republican Governor Mitt Romney from handpicking Kerry’s Senate replacement, the Democratic Legislature changed state law to establish a special election process to fill a vacancy.
Democrats were confident they could win a special election if Kerry won his race against President George W. Bush.
That calculation that Democrats would have a clear advantage in a special election proved embarrassingly false several years later when Scott Brown, a little-known Republican state senator, won a special election in January 2010 to fill the seat long held by the late Edward M. Kennedy.
Who thought it up, and must have been burning in hell when Brown won.
Under the 2004 law, the election must take place no sooner than 145 days and no later than 160 days after the vacancy is created — a tight campaign schedule that can easily be overwhelmed by other events.
During a normal election cycle, races for state constitutional offices and the US Senate take place over months, or possibly several years, giving candidates and their staff time to build organizations, polish their campaign skills, and create a strong profile. Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren did battle for more than a year before the November 2012 election.
Everything is framed in terms of a war in my War Paper.
The shorter election cycle has the greatest impact on candidates who have low voter identification, few resources, and are not heavily tied into the party apparatus or leadership that can be critical in a primary.
Analysts agree that Democrat Stephen Lynch, the South Boston congressman who is already facing an uphill primary fight, could have used more time and public attention to gain traction to overtake front-runner, Edward J. Markey, a veteran congressman.
They will be getting a lot less here after tomorrow.
On the Republican side, state Representative Daniel B. Winslow of Norfolk and political newcomer Gabriel Gomez, a Cohasset businessman, are also facing the same problem as they try to challenge the GOP’s perceived front-runner, Michael J. Sullivan, a former federal and state prosecutor and one-time state legislator.
Jeffrey M. Berry, a political science professor at Tufts University, said Winslow, with his energetic effort to bring new approaches to the Republican Party, is a good example of how the truncated election process works against candidates who could be more viable in a longer campaign.
“Of the Republicans, Winslow has to be most disappointed,’’ said Berry. “He has a good reputation in the state Legislature and among the party faithful but can’t get the recognition outside the political world.’’
That analysis underscores what other critics say is the ability of insiders and activists in both parties to dominate a special election and effectively choose who will fill such a critical public office in a low turnout elections.
Then they can be vetted by AIPAC.
Jerold Duquette, associate professor of political science at Central Connecticut State University, thinks gubernatorial appointment to fill the seat is far preferable than holding elections that draw little interest or participation. He suggests that the state should examine going back to the system in place prior to 2004, in which the governor would appoint a senator until the next regular state election.
Globe seems to be steering you that way.
“Having a system with a gubernatorial appointment for two years and then a campaign is not perfect, but having a longer debate is a much better deal,’’ Duquette said. “What’s in place now is not good for democracy or a competitive election.’’
But others dismiss those arguments, saying the special election process is far better than allowing a governor to make the decision.
“A flawed campaign that allows the voters to decide who will be the senator is a lot better than having one person, the governor, filling the position,’’ said former Republican state treasurer Joseph D. Malone.
That's right.
Pam Wilmot, the executive director of Common Cause of Massachusetts, said her group’s initial support of the law to create special elections for the US Senate remains unchanged despite what she acknowledges have been “a string of disastrous events that has fully absorbed the public’s and media’s attention.’’
Call all votes off because it is always something?
“If you give the governor the appointment for two years, it makes it very difficult to unseat that person,’’ Wilmot said. “Incumbents have all the privileges and benefits of incumbency that accrues to an enormous extent over a two-year period.’’
State Representative William M. Straus, a Mattapoisett Democrat and one of the architects of the law, agrees.
“There is no impediment to registered voters to participate in making the decisions,’’ he said. “If they don’t turn out, it is a shame, but I don’t blame the fact we are holding the election as the problem.’’
Globe does.
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Meanwhile, out on the trail:
"Senate hopefuls comb state in dash to finish" by Stephanie Ebbertand Wesley Lowery | Globe Staff, April 28, 2013
Three Republicans and two Democrats running in the US Senate special election spent a sunny Saturday dashing through towns north, south, and west of Boston, reminding voters what has been easy to forget the past tumultuous weeks: Tuesday is primary day.
The candidates went in search of voters at venues large and small — from a massive motorcycle rally for wounded veterans at Suffolk Downs to Little League opening games to the Chicopee transfer station.
“The campaign effectively began yesterday,” said state Representative Daniel B. Winslow, one of the three Republicans seeking the nomination. Most Republican voters, he noted, have been undecided in a race that has been sidelined by the tragedy at the Boston Marathon.
In one day, Winslow planned to shake hands at an orchard, a bicycle shop, a deli, and a supermarket, before meeting voters outside Fenway Park. He began the morning working the tables inside Red’s Kitchen + Tavern in Peabody, where some voters were just waking up to the idea that a primary was imminent....
He just won one over, according to the Globe.
The Democrat leading in the race, US Representative Edward J. Markey of Malden, assembled supporters at rallies in Somerville, Lynn, Beverly, Lowell, and Lawrence. At the Arlington American Legion Post 39, he was joined by four elected officials and about 100 supporters who cheered his commitment to issues of gun control and climate change.
“Just as Sandy Hook was our warning on gun violence, Hurricane Sandy was our warning on global warming,” Markey told the crowd, pledging to do more on both fronts.
Related: Sunday Globe Special: East Coast Still a Mess Six Months After Sandy
And I get tired of firing spitballs about the other one.
Markey also picked up the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy, daughter of President Kennedy. In a statement, she called him a “national leader” who has “spent his career fighting for opportunity for all.”
Markey, whose campaign went dark for eight days following the Patriots Day bombings, noted the unpredictable nature of this special election.
“To a certain extent, what we’re doing is terra incognita,” Markey said after the Arlington rally. “It’s impossible to really know what impact it’s going to have on turnout.”
But he said he had spent months building an organization around the state, which is now focused on getting out supporters.
********************************
US Representative Stephen F. Lynch of South Boston, held several campaign events on the state’s South Coast, before heading west to Worcester. When the day was done, he had visited a Little League game, fund-raisers, and a Walk for Autism Awareness.
Related: Lonely Lynch
Looks like a loser to me.
In Worcester, he stood on the stairs of a medical practice and implored the two dozen or so supporters who gathered there to make sure to get to the polls on Tuesday.
“The most important relationship I have in Washington, D.C., is the one I have with you. You’re the ones who sent me,” Lynch said, eliciting applause from the crowd.
Supporters on hand said they are drawn to Lynch because, as a former ironworker, he understands how the nation’s economic woes are affecting them and he won’t disappear from the neighborhoods if elected to the Senate.
“You can tell by listening to him,” said Danny DeLollis, 55, an out-of-work teacher from Ayer. “He’s not full of baloney like that other guy.”
“He’s not a career politician; because he’s been in the trenches, he feels our pain,” said Greg Pike, 54, of Auburn. “He knows what it’s like to be out here chasing a paycheck.”
If I do vote it will be for him.
************************
Republican candidate Michael J. Sullivan campaigned in Springfield and Chicopee before joining a Spring Stroll in Holliston, sponsored by the local business association.
Sullivan, a former state and federal prosecutor and legislator, said he has been encouraged by those he met on the trail. As he weaved his way past magic shows and yard sales, passersby shouted out, “Hey, Mike!” or approached him to let him know he has their support. He told voters he’s the strongest of the Republican Senate candidates on the economy and national security, which he said is fresh in the mind of voters following the Boston Marathon attacks.
“The voters are still devastated by what happened on Patriots Day. There were questions about whether or not they’ll show up,” he said. “But what I’m seeing as I walk the streets is that people are excited and still paying attention.”
With each voter he approached, Sullivan hammered home his campaign’s main message.
“I’m a small government kinda guy,” Sullivan told a middle-aged man, who described himself as an independent. “I want to cut the size of government and bring back jobs to this neck of the woods – because what they’ve been doing in Washington these last few years clearly hasn’t been working.”
Just not when it comes to his taxpayer-funded pension.
Also see: Sullivan Furiously Sprinting For Primary Finish Line
*************************
Republican Gabriel E. Gomez, a Cohasset private equity investor and first-time statewide candidate, continued his “Service First” tour, barnstorming 29 towns in four days, highlighting his goal to reform Washington. The former Navy SEAL visited the Shea Naval Aviation Museum in Weymouth and the Boston Wounded Vets’ Bike Run at Suffolk Downs, before greeting voters at a Stoughton VFW and outside a New England Revolution game. He had less luck at the Franklin fire and police departments, where no one was available to shake his hand, but dispatcher Didi Baker recognized his face from his TV ads. “I thought you looked familiar!” she said.
He was a new face to Paul Lapierre, a cook at the Uptowne Pub in Franklin, a paneled barroom that was nearly empty on a warm spring afternoon. But Gomez’s military credentials immediately won over at least one voter there....
There a reason the Globe put Gomez last?
The special election is scheduled to replace John F. Kerry, now US secretary of state. The Democratic and Republican winners of Tuesday’s primaries will face off in the general election on June 25th. Turnout is expected to be low on Tuesday.
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Related:
"US Senate candidates pin hope on the faithful" by Frank Phillips and Michael Levenson | Globe Staff, April 29, 2013
Edward J. Markey, the veteran congressman from Malden who is considered the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, [is] convinced his campaign aides have cobbled together the same sort of broad coalition that includes gays and lesbians, Hispanics, women, and college students along with a large swath of traditional Massachusetts Democratic voters. They say they will have targeted those groups with door knocking and phone calls to 500,000 voters by the primary....
US Representative Stephen F. Lynch, a centrist and former president of Ironworkers Local 7 in South Boston, is relying on trade unions to bring out his voters — “lunch-bucket Democrats” as his spokesman said last week. He is also making a strong pitch for urban Democrats by talking about issues such as street violence and his background growing up in the South Boston housing projects....
Lynch, struggling to break through the avalanche of news on the bombings, has tried to close the gap between him and Markey with attacks on the Malden Democrat’s record on national security issues as Boston wrestled with the Patriots Day terrorist attack.
“There was a late attempt by Lynch to change messages and focus on security issues,’’ said Stephen Ansolabehere, a professor of government at Harvard. “But I think it is too late to change the dialogue between the two of them.”
Markey, who has far outpaced Lynch in fund-raising, has continued during the last week to focus on issues such as gun control and climate change that have gained him support from a host of local and national Democratic interests groups.
*****************************
In the Republican primary, socially and fiscally conservative candidate, former prosecutor Michael J. Sullivan — seen by some as the front-runner — is drawing strong support from the conservative wing of his party, particularly opponents of abortion and gay marriage, groups who often vote even in low-turnout elections. He has also picked up endorsements from GOP elected officials, including sheriffs in Essex, Plymouth, and Bristol counties, and members of the party’s small legislative caucus.
Two-term state Representative Daniel B. Winslow of Norfolk, a former district court judge [and] a social liberal, has sought to appeal to the moderate and libertarian Republican voters who elected William F. Weld and other Republican governors during the past two decades.
But independents who were critical to Weld’s coalition can vote in either primary, making it harder for Winslow to consolidate that bloc. He also has to compete for moderates with Gabriel E. Gomez, a Cohasset businessman and former Navy SEAL, who has been endorsed by Weld and is casting himself as a fresh face for the GOP.
With Sullivan and Winslow strapped for cash, Gomez has used his wealth and fund-raising ties to the financial world to air statewide radio and TV ads, allowing him to gain some traction in the final days....
WTF? Why does the Globe keep hiding Winslow's belonging to the one-percent?
Related: Gomez a Goner
Maybe not. The fix is in?
One high-level GOP official who is not affiliated with any of the campaigns but did not want to be quoted by name, said the Gomez campaign is exuding a growing sense of confidence. “They seem to have hit their stride,’’ said the official....
The difficulty the candidates have faced in trying to connect with voters in the aftermath of the bombings was evident over the weekend, as turnout was often light as candidates visited communities across the state.
Maybe we are just sick of them and all the hot air?
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"Senate hopefuls work to get primary vote out" by Joshua Miller | Globe Staff, April 29, 2013
Less than 48 hours before the polls open, the two Democratic and three Republican US Senate hopefuls crisscrossed Massachusetts Sunday, encouraging voters— if not pleading with them — to vote on Tuesday.
On the final weekend of campaigning, candidates often appear at large, orchestrated events aimed at topping off a long election effort. But after a truncated primary campaign marked by a distracted electorate, the candidates showed up at a wide range of mostly small events where they focused on the basics: reminding people that Tuesday is primary day, and pressing them to cast their ballots....
Representatives Edward J. Markey seemed to draw some of the day’s biggest crowds. As he walked into Doyle’s Cafe in Jamaica Plain, a frequent stop on the Democratic campaign circuit, the crowd broke into loud applause and cheers which morphed into chants of “Mar-key! Mar-key!”
Where was Ed? Where was Ed? Where was Ed?
Local Democratic elected officials, including Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley, praised Markey for his progressive stances, before Ilyse Hogue, the president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, took the microphone. She said he has been and would continue to be a champion for abortion rights and said there was a big difference between Markey and Representative Stephen F. Lynch, Democrat of South Boston, on the issue.
Standing in front of a framed likenesses of President John F. Kennedy and his brothers Robert F. Kennedy and Edward M. Kennedy, Markey ticked through his stances on issues from health care to the environment to gay marriage.
Steve Glickel, 67, said he liked Lynch, liked his union background, and thought he was a “good guy.” But, Glickel said, Markey was simply closer to where he stood on the issues.
Markey has outpaced Lynch in fund-raising and is considered the front-runner in Tuesday’s primary.
*****************************
In a short speech to about 25 supporters and volunteers in Lynn Sunday morning, Lynch said his campaign was ready to stun the political world.
He noted that special elections are unpredictable and reminded his supporters he had previously won two that he was expected to lose — for the state Senate in 1996and for the US House of Representatives in 2001.
On Sept. the 11th.
Before Lynch spoke, Reading resident Danny Gray — who only gave his age as “seasoned” — stood holding a cup of mostly-drunk Dunkin’ Donuts coffee. Gray said he thought Lynch was going to win because of the congressman’s support among working people....
Relaxed and soft-spoken, Lynch greeted supporters with hugs and handshakes and knew many of his volunteers by name.
After spending about 40 minutes with them, he headed to a Little League game.
******************************
Another Little League game was the last stop of the day for private equity investor Gabriel E. Gomez, Republican of Cohasset, so he could watch his son pitch.
Before that, he pursued a heavy schedule of retail politicking across the state, from Westfield to Worcester to Springfield to Shrewsbury....
“I’m a diehard Red Sox fan,” Gomez said....
Oh, now I'm for him.
Frank Irr, a Gomez supporter and the Republican town committee chair in Millbury, sat watching the candidate work his way to each of the 20 people or so in the establishment. He said he was supporting Gomez because he is “the fresh face” the Republican party is looking for.
***********************
State Representative Daniel B. Winslow, began his day in the western part of the state, greeting people at a diner in Chicopee before making his way east to Worcester, Woburn, and communities in between.
Winslow announced Sunday his campaign will begin airing a television ad on Monday, touting the newspaper endorsements he has received. The ad concludes: “On Tuesday, vote Winslow.”
**************************
The third Republican vying for that nomination, former US attorney Michael J. Sullivan, of Abington, stopped at an event in his hometown Saturday afternoon, honoring a veteran of the Korean War before heading to his campaign headquarters to help volunteers makes calls to potential voters.
On his first try, he got the voice mail of a man named Thomas.
“Just calling to let you know I’m on the ballot for April 30,” Sullivan said, leaving a message. After a couple more attempts at other numbers, a woman answered.
“Hi, this is Mike Sullivan. I’m running for United States Senate,” he said. After a brief pause, Sullivan said: “You will? Terrific.” He hung up.
“That was an easy one,” he said, smiling. “I should stop now.”
Me, too.
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Related: Mass. voters sick and tired of politics
Yup.
NEXT DAY UPDATE: Senate hopefuls make final push for today’s primary
