JERUSALEM — After a Katyusha rocket fired from Lebanon landed in Israel last month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed Hezbollah, the Shi’ite militia, and its Iranian backers. But Israeli security officials attributed the attack, as well as a similar one in August, to a Sunni jihadist group linked to Al Qaeda.
That's scary.
Who are the terrorists again?
That disconnect is representative of the deepening dilemma Israel faces as the region around it is riven by sectarian warfare that could redraw the map of the Middle East.
Then maybe it would help if Mossad and other western intelligence agencies were not stirring things up.
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Oh, right. Almost forgot where the narrative is coming from.
And about that map….
While Netanyahu and other leaders continue to see Shi’ite Iran and its nuclear program as the primary threat to Israel, and Hezbollah as the most likely to draw it into direct battle, the mounting strength of extremist Sunni cells in Syria, Iraq, and beyond vowing to bring jihad to Jerusalem can hardly be ignored.
See: Black Widows Spinning Webs in Sochi
As the chaos escalates, Israeli officials insist that they have no inclination to intervene. Instead, they have embraced a castle mentality, hoping that the moat they have dug — in the form of high-tech border fences, intensified military deployments, and sophisticated intelligence — is broad enough at least to buy time….
How about trying to make peace instead?
Yaakov Amidror, who recently stepped down as Israel’s national security adviser. “But we will have to be very, very cautious not to take part in this struggle.’’
Not overtly anyone, as they shell Syria and Lebanon from time to time.
“What we see now is a collapsing of a historical system, the idea of the national Arabic state,’’ Amidror said. “It means that we will be encircled by an area which will be no man’s land at the end of the day.”
Related: Al-CIA-Duh Caliphate
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Israeli leaders have tried to exploit recent events to bolster their case for a long-term military presence in the Jordan Valley, a sticking point in the US-brokered peace talks with the Palestinians.
This month, Naftali Bennett, head of the right-wing Jewish Home party, ticked off violent episodes in Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, and Lebanon, and concluded in irony, “A really excellent time to divest ourselves of security assets.”
Bennett, who opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state, might seize on any excuse to undermine the talks. But Israeli officials, and analysts with close ties to the government and security establishment, said the argument also had traction in more mainstream quarters. The deterioration in Iraq, which borders Jordan, has revived concerns about vulnerability on Israel’s eastern flank.
“From the Straits of Gibraltar to the Cairo Pass, it’s very hard to come by a safe and secure area,” Netanyahu told reporters here Thursday.
“Peace can be built on hope, but that hope has to be grounded in facts,” he said. “A peace that is not based on truth will crash against the realities of the Middle East.”
Michael Herzog, a retired Israeli general and former peace negotiator, said that “what you hear in Israeli government circles” is that the regional chaos “highlights the need for solid security arrangements.”
“The US accepts the basic Israeli argument that given what’s happening in the region — suddenly jihadists are taking over Syria, and there’s no telling what will happen elsewhere — there is a legitimate cause for concern,” said Herzog, who has been consulting with the US team. “How to translate that into concrete security arrangements is something the parties are right now coping with.”
Looks like 2014 is going to be the year Israel takes the offensive!
Israeli security and political officials have been unsettled by the rapid developments on the ground and in the diplomatic arena in recent weeks.
Washington’s gestures toward Iran, not only on the nuclear issue but also with regard to Syria and Iraq, underscore a divergence in how the United States and Israel, close allies, view the region. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, which shares Israel’s concern about an emboldened Iran, is financing Sunni groups that view Israel as the ultimate enemy.
That explains the intermittent demonization in my jewspaper here and there.
More broadly, the intensified fighting has convinced many Israelis that the region will be unstable or even anarchic for some time, upending decades of strategic positioning and military planning.
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