Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Lathering Up the Ivory Coast For Invasion

I believe you will see the words "regime change" somewhere. 

See: Ivory Coast Crisis is About Oil

Now I understand why it is getting so much media attention. 

Related: Ivory Coast Intervention

"Ivory Coast leader orders UN forces to leave; Gunmen fire on agency base amid election dispute" by Marco Chown Oved, Associated Press / December 19, 2010

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — The man who refuses to step down from the presidency ordered thousands of UN peacekeepers to leave Ivory Coast immediately yesterday, calling the global body that has endorsed his political rival an “agent of destabilization.’’

That sure seems to happen wherever they are in Africa. 

Earlier yesterday, masked gunmen opened fire on the UN base; no one from the UN was harmed in the attack.

Gbagbo’s spokeswoman said yesterday that the UN mission known as UNOCI has not remained neutral in the election dispute and accused it of arming the New Forces rebels allied with opposition leader Alassane Ouattara.

The United Nations certified results showing that Ouattara had won by “an irrefutable margin.’’ The UN had been invited by the country itself to supervise the vote and certify the outcome following a peace accord after Ivory Coast’s 2002-2003 civil war.

In New York, UN peacekeeping chief Alain Le Roy was holding an emergency meeting of his department’s crisis team to discuss a response to Gbagbo’s request, said a UN official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

It remains unclear what weight Gbagbo’s demand would have, as the UN doesn’t consider him to be president. There are about 9,000 UN peacekeepers in the country, and about 800 of them have been protecting the compound from which Ouattara is trying to govern the country....

Ouattara called on his supporters on Thursday to seize key state institutions Gbagbo still controls. Police and troops loyal to Gbagbo prevented Ouattara’s supporters from marching on government buildings Friday.

International pressure is growing on Gbagbo to give up his claim to power in this nation that was once an economic hub because of its role as the world’s top cocoa producer.  

But we know that is not why they are there.

The civil war split Ivory Coast in a rebel-controlled north and a loyalist south, and many hoped the election would help reunite the country.

While Ivory Coast officially reunited in a 2007 peace deal, Ouattara still draws his support from the northern half of the country, while Gbagbo’s power base is in the south.

Gbagbo claimed victory in the presidential election only after his allies threw out half a million ballots from Ouattara strongholds in the north, a move that infuriated residents there, who have long felt they are treated as foreigners in their own country by southerners.  

I sometimes have that feeling -- especially near an airport.

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Related: At least 20 killed in Ivory Coast clashes

UN extends mission in troubled Ivory Coast

US, African countries press Ivory Coast head to abandon presidency, citing election reports

A United Nations patrol in Abidjan passed a billboard for Ivory Coast’s president, Laurent Gbagbo, who has fought leaving office after an election that international observers said he lost.
A United Nations patrol in Abidjan passed a billboard for Ivory Coast’s president, Laurent Gbagbo, who has fought leaving office after an election that international observers said he lost. (Sunday Alamba/Associated Press)

The United Nations said at least 173 people had died in violence over the runoff vote, and government forces were blocking access to a possible mass grave. 

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"General strike called in Ivory Coast; Gbagbo faces removal by military force" by Marco Chown Oved, Associated Press / December 27, 2010

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — Allies of the man who the international community says won Ivory Coast’s disputed presidential election called yesterday for a general strike that would last until the incumbent hanging on to power concedes defeat and leaves office.

It was the latest form of pressure aimed at forcing Laurent Gbagbo from the presidency nearly a month after the United Nations said his political rival, Alassane Ouattara, won the runoff vote. Gbagbo has refused to leave despite international calls for his ouster, and West African leaders said they will remove him by force if he fails to go....

West African leaders said they will give Gbagbo a final chance to hand over power before moving to oust him, though doubts exist about whether a military operation could be carried out....

While the threat of a military intervention creates pressure on Gbagbo, Africa security analyst Peter Pham said there are “serious doubts that ECOWAS has the wherewithal to carry it out.’’

“None of the ECOWAS countries has the type of special operations forces capable of a ‘decapitation strike’ to remove the regime leadership,’’ said Pham, who is the senior vice president of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy in New York. “That leaves the rather unpalatable option of mounting a full-scale invasion of the sort that would inevitably involve urban fighting and civilian casualties.’’

Pham also said there is “little chance’’ that the UN would allow its peacekeepers to get involved in such an effort. “The precedent would make it very difficult to get future agreement for deployment of such missions by host countries,’’ he said.

Diplomatic pressure and sanctions have left Gbagbo increasingly isolated, though he has been able to maintain his rule for nearly a month since the disputed vote because he still has the loyalty of security forces and the country’s military.

Even that, though, may disappear if he runs out of money to pay them. Gbagbo’s access to the state funds used to pay soldiers and civil servants has been cut off. Only Ouattara’s representatives now have access to state coffers.

Yesterday, French authorities said Gbagbo’s plane had been blocked from leaving an airport in France near the Swiss border.

Bernard Valero, French Foreign Ministry spokesman, said the plane was “demobilized’’ in the Basel-Mulhouse-Freiburg airport at the request of Ivory Coast’s “legitimate authorities.’’ It is unclear why Gbagbo’s plane was at the airport.

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"Reaction to strike in Ivory Coast highlights divisions; West African bloc sends emissaries to seek resolution" by Marco Chown Oved, Associated Press / December 28, 2010

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — Ivorians unevenly followed a general strike aimed at pressuring their incumbent leader, Laurent Gbagbo, to step down, largely sticking to the same fracture lines that marked the West African nation’s civil war eight years ago....

Dozens of people gathered outside the Nigerian Embassy in Abidjan yesterday held signs that said: “We don’t want a military intervention’’ and “Let Ivorians solve Ivorian problems.’’  

I agree! 

 Nigeria has the strongest army in the region and probably would play a major role if an operation were launched to oust Gbagbo....

Weeks of violence over the election have left at least 173 people dead, according to the UN. The toll is believed to be much higher, as the UN said it has been unable to investigate reports of a mass grave because of restrictions on UN personnel movements.   

I have come to read those charges as UN propaganda even if true.

Since the vote, human rights groups have expressed alarm about hundreds of arrests and dozens of cases of torture and disappearances....   

I don't here them raising many hackles when it is the US or some other western government, do you?

Dozens of women gathered in Abidjan to pray for peace yesterday.

“We are in trouble, and we don’t know what to do,’’ said Edith Esther, an Abidjan resident. “We are not politicians; we have had sleepless nights. We are stressed. That’s why we have come here to cry to God.’’

Christian women attended a prayer for peace in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo warned that a foreign plot was pushing the country toward civil war.
Christian women attended a prayer for peace in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo warned that a foreign plot was pushing the country toward civil war. (Sia Kambou/ AFP/ Getty Images) 

The UN declared that Ouattara won the election, but Gbagbo refuses to concede defeat and leave despite admonitions from the UN, the United States, the European Union, and the African Union....

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Related: West African leaders leave Ivory Coast; Gbagbo stays

West African leaders back off threat of force in Ivory Coast

I'm always for backing off the threats, folks. 

"US, allies work to ease Ivory Coast turmoil; Offer Gbagbo a plan to cede power, flee" by Eric Lipton and Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times / January 1, 2010

WASHINGTON — President Laurent Gbagbo vowed yesterday that he would not cede power in Ivory Coast, while Obama administration officials warned that he was running out of time to accept an offer they had made to help him leave the country peacefully....   

That doesn't sound like a back-down at all.

Obama administration officials provided additional details yesterday about their efforts to offer Gbagbo a graceful way out. Starting in early December, they said, officials approached Gbagbo’s representatives about the possibility of finding him a position in an international organization, as sort of a consolation prize.

They also proposed that he relocate to the United States, where relatives of his have lived, or to some other location in Europe or Africa.

“One would not rule that out, if it is a way to resolve the situation,’’ P.J. Crowley, a State Department spokesman, said yesterday. “If he is prepared to leave, we can discuss where he might go.’’

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The pressure on Gbagbo continued to escalate yesterday as Navi Pillay, the UN high commissioner for human rights, warned Gbagbo in a letter from Geneva that he and other Ivory Coast leaders faced possible human rights charges if they played any role in violent attacks.

“No longer can heads of state, and other actors, be sure that they can commit atrocious violations and get away with it,’’ Pillay said in a statement, citing tougher enforcement of international law....  

Unless they are Israel, of course!!

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Related: Ivory Coast official says only force can resolve stalemate

"Peacekeepers patrolling the streets of Abidjan are coming under a growing threat....

“Ivory Coast is at war.’’

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"The African heads of state traveled to Ivory Coast to give persuasion another chance before resorting to military intervention....

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Update: Ivory Coast leader appears to soften position