Sunday, March 16, 2014

Slow Saturday Special: Obama's Ukrainian Off-Ramp

"As of Friday, there had been no sign that Putin was prepared to take the “off ramp” that the Obama administration has repeatedly offered."

"Kerry meeting yields no agreement on Crimea; Russian cites lack of ‘common vision’" by Michael R. Gordon and Steven Lee Myers | New York Times, March 15, 2014

RelatedNew York Times Nostalgic For Cold War 

I'm waving the red flag!

LONDON — An 11th-hour bid by Secretary of State John Kerry to ease the escalating crisis over the Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea ended inconclusively Friday, with his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, declaring that Russia and the West have “no common vision” about the events that led to the impasse.

In a more positive vein, Lavrov also said that Russia “does not have any plans to invade Eastern or Southern Ukraine,” despite the buildup of Russian forces in regions along the Ukrainian border that has raised fears in Ukraine and beyond that an invasion could be imminent.

Lavrov held firm to Russia’s positions throughout the crisis: denouncing the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych as a coup, refusing to recognize the new government, opposing the creation of a “contact group,” and reiterating Crimea’s right to self-determination.

“We don’t have a common vision of the situation,” Lavrov said during his appearance after the talks, which he nonetheless called helpful in clarifying the seemingly intractable positions. “Our differences remain.”

Lavrov refused to say whether Russia would move to recognize Crimea as an independent state or to absorb it as a region of the Russian Federation. Instead, he repeated President Vladimir Putin’s pledge to “respect the choice” of voters in a referendum on secession on Sunday, after which Russia would announce its next steps. “It makes no sense to speculate at this point,” he said. “We’ll just have to wait and see.”

He brushed aside the threats of sanctions and other punitive measures made by President Obama and European leaders, saying that Kerry “made no threats regarding Russia.”

Smart move.

He said the sanctions that have been widely discussed by officials and reported in the news media would be “a counterproductive instrument.”

“This will definitely not help our mutual interest,” he said.

Asked why other countries did not support Crimea’s desire for independence, he replied that they treated efforts to declare independence case by case. “If Kosovo is a special case, then Crimea is also a special case,” he said.

Putin spoke by telephone with the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, on Friday, the Kremlin said in a statement, and emphasized that the decision to hold the referendum on Crimea’s status “fully complies with international law and the UN Charter.” Western nations have called the referendum illegal.

Ban did not say anything specific about the referendum, he said, but he warned of “a great risk of a dangerous downward spiral.”

He added: “I urge all concerned to avoid provocation and hasty decisions in the coming days. The focus must be to engage in direct dialogue aimed at agreeing on specific measures that will pave the way towards a diplomatic solution.”

As of Friday, there had been no sign that Putin was prepared to take the “off ramp” that the Obama administration has repeatedly offered. The Kremlin provided no hint of flexibility in a paper it sent to the State Department on Monday night that argued that Crimea’s secession from Ukraine would be as legitimate as Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, which the United States supported.

And in a new episode of muscle flexing, Putin ordered a snap exercise involving thousands of troops near Ukraine’s borders this week.

Even as Russia announced additional military exercises, including flights by fighter jets in the Mediterranean, the Foreign Ministry in Moscow blamed the new authorities in Kiev for losing control of the country and reiterated Putin’s vow to defend Russian “compatriots” in Ukraine.

The ministry’s statement, released on its website, cited violence during competing rallies in the eastern city of Donetsk on Thursday night that left one person dead and many others injured. The ministry attributed the violence to “right-wing groups” that supported the government in Kiev, though reports from witnesses and even footage on state television suggested that pro-Russian protesters had attacked their rivals.

“Russia is aware of its responsibility for the lives of compatriots and fellow citizens in Ukraine and reserves the right to take people under protection,” the ministry’s statement said.

One Western official, who asked not to be named because he was discussing intelligence reports, said, “It is clearly political coercion, at a minimum.”

A major question for the United States and its partners is whether Putin’s strategy is limited to protecting Russian interests in Crimea or is the first move in a broader campaign to undermine Ukraine’s new government and weaken its authority over the eastern portion of the country.

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Sorry I'm on cruise control regarding the propaganda these days.

"Obama says Putin should rethink Crimea referendum" by Julie Pace and Bradley Klapper | Associated Press   March 13, 2014

WASHINGTON — Counting down to a high-stakes Crimean referendum, President Obama declared Wednesday that the United States would ‘‘completely reject’’ a vote opening the door for the Ukrainian peninsula to join Russia if the election goes ahead on Sunday. Adding pressure on Russia, the Senate advanced a package of potentially tough economic sanctions against Moscow.

Obama made a point of welcoming Ukraine’s new leader to the White House, declaring as they sat side-by-side that he hoped there would be a ‘‘rethinking’’ by President Vladimir Putin of the referendum. Obama derided the vote as a ‘‘slap-dash referendum’’ and warned that if it occurs, the international community ‘‘will be forced to apply a cost to Russia’s violation of international law.’’

Secretary of State John Kerry also was talking tough, telling Congress, ‘‘It can get ugly fast if the wrong choices are made, and it can get ugly in multiple directions.’’ Kerry will meet with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, on Friday in London in a last-ditch effort to halt the referendum.

That's deescalating things?

Ukraine accused Russia on Wednesday of conducting a large military buildup near the countries’ border that raises the threat of an invasion, but Moscow denied that.

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In Moscow, Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said Moscow has accepted a request that Ukraine made Tuesday to conduct a surveillance flight over Russian territory.

How unreasonable!

Antonov said that while Russia was not obliged to allow such a flight, it decided to issue permission for one so that Ukraine can see for itself that ‘‘Russian armed forces aren’t conducting any military activities near the border of Ukraine that could threaten its security.’’

That would put the kibosh on the war!

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On Wednesday, NATO deployed two surveillance aircraft to monitor Ukraine’s air space and Black Sea ship movements.

Amid the maneuvering, Obama met in the Oval Office with new Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, praising him and the Ukrainian people. The meeting was aimed at showcasing the United States’ commitment to Ukraine.

To a bunch of fascist thugs!

‘‘There’s another path available and we hope President Putin is willing to seize that path,’’ Obama said. ‘‘But if he does not, I’m very confident that the international community will stand firmly behind the Ukrainian government.’’

The UNELECTED Ukraine government!

Yatsenyuk, a 39-year-old pro-Western official who speaks fluent English, defiantly declared that his country ‘‘will never surrender’’ in its fight to protect its territory.

He arrived in Washington seeking financial help to stabilize his fledgling government. The Senate bill that advanced out of committee Wednesday would authorize $1 billion in loan guarantees.

As an austerity-laden taxpayer and recipient of social service cuts I object!

The measure, which next would go to the full Senate, also would allow the Obama administration to impose economic penalties on Russian officials responsible for the intervention in Crimea or culpable of gross corruption.

In the 14-to-3 vote, all committee Democrats supported the measure. Some Republicans expressed concerns about how the United States would pay for the loan guarantees and about provisions to expand the lending authority of the International Monetary Fund.

Why I'm more a Republican than Democrap.

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Look what I found on the side of the road:

"In Ukraine, the end of Act One" by Nicholas Burns | Globe Columnist   March 13, 2014

Putin’s invasion.... He invaded, is using coercion, will likely annex, and will get away with stealing Crimea.... 

You know, like what Israel does to Palestinian land. 

Putin chose war, a supreme irony, that later that destroyed his empire and rule with his ill-advised land grab.

I didn't know Burns was a prophet.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is nearing the end of Act One with this weekend’s trumped-up Crimean referendum for reunification with mother Russia. As we look ahead to Acts Two and Three, what have we learned so far?

Putin’s strategy is crystal clear. He is building a band of buffer states in an orbit around Moscow. That is why he invaded Georgia in 2008 to separate it from its territories Abhazia and South Ossetia, still under Russian control. He is using coercion to keep Armenia, Moldova, and now Ukraine from even thinking about a relationship with the European Union, much less NATO. He will likely annex Crimea and threatens to “protect” ethnic Russians elsewhere in Ukraine if need be.

Europe and America are divided. I saw this first-hand in the Netherlands last week. If the United States and Eastern Europeans call for tougher sanctions, it is not at all clear the Germans, Dutch, Italians, and even British will agree. As a result, the West’s response has been hesitant, weak, and divided. Putin will get away with stealing Crimea because Europe is hooked on Russian natural gas. Obama should approve LNG exports to Europe to eventually relieve that dependency.

Obama didn’t cause the problem; Putin did. Obama’s critics are wrong to blame him for Putin’s aggression. That charge didn’t add up when Putin ignored George W. Bush during the Georgia War, and it doesn’t now. It may be a quaint notion, but shouldn’t politics stop at the water’s edge on Ukraine? We won the Cold War in part because we were united at home. Republicans really should stand with Obama as he duels with Putin.

Power rules: Putin took Crimea because he could. He knew NATO wouldn’t oppose him. With Russia on the move and the Chinese bullying smaller countries in the South China Sea, is it really smart to reduce the Army to its smallest size since 1940? To keep the peace, we need to convince Russia and China we’ll remain the world’s strongest power for the generation ahead.

NATO is back. Many still see it as an anachronism. But, as Colin Powell used to say, how can you close its doors when so many are knocking on them to get in? Because of NATO enlargement, Putin can’t intimidate the 10 Central Europeans brought in since the Cold War ended. Obama should call a NATO leaders meeting to strengthen conventional defenses in the Baltic States, Romania, and Poland and reaffirm the Article V defense commitment for all allies.

The battle for a “democratic peace” in Europe has resumed. That is what George H.W. Bush said we had won with the collapse of communism. Americans fought two world wars and the Cold War because Europe was fractious and violent. The revolutions from 1989 to 1991 united the continent. That is why what happens in Ukraine is so important — it renews the great struggle for peace and freedom in Europe that may not end until Putin’s generation of Soviet men has passed from the scene.

Great power peace imperiled? When Obama attends the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague later this month, he should visit the monumental Peace Palace Andrew Carnegie built there in 1913 for the amicable resolution of global disputes. Now home to the Permanent Court of Arbitration and International Court of Justice, Putin could have taken his Crimea obsession to its gilded corridors, but he chose war instead. It is a supreme irony that one of the Peace Palace’s major backers, Czar Nicholas II, blundered into war a year later that destroyed his empire and rule. Obama can suggest that Putin, intent on restoring Russia’s greatness, be mindful of that historical lesson. Carnegie’s call for a Great Power peace still resonates a century later. That is the peace Putin is threatening with his ill-advised land grab in Europe.

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Spoken like a true neo-con and elitist.

Time to speed up:

"Russian forces mass along Ukraine border" by Steven Lee Myers and Alison Smale | New York Times   March 14, 2014

MOSCOW — With a referendum on secession looming in Crimea, Russia massed troops and armored vehicles in at least three regions along Ukraine’s eastern border on Thursday, alarming the interim Ukraine government about a possible invasion and significantly escalating tensions in the crisis between the Kremlin and the West.

The announcement of the troop buildup by Russia’s Defense Ministry was met with an unusually sharp rebuke from Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who warned that the Russian government must abandon what she called the politics of the 19th and 20th centuries or face diplomatic and economic retaliation from a united Europe.

“Ladies and gentlemen, if Russia continues on its course of the past weeks, it will not only be a catastrophe for Ukraine,” she said in a speech to the German Parliament. “We, also as neighbors of Russia, would not only see it as a threat. And it would not only change the European Union’s relationship with Russia. No, this would also cause massive damage to Russia, economically and politically.”

And worse in the reverse.

Merkel’s words reflected the rapid evolution of the Ukraine crisis from a regional conflict to a full-blown East-West confrontation that threatens a deep rupture in relations between Moscow and an increasingly unified EU and United States.

Are they?

That a leader of Germany, which has traditionally sought to bridge the East-West divide, should speak so forcefully was a further indication of the seriousness and depth of the potential breach.

In Congress on Thursday, Secretary of State John F. Kerry asserted that Russia wasn’t yet ready to undertake a full-scale invasion of all of Ukraine, though he stressed “that could change very quickly and we recognize that.”

Kerry said his hope was “not to create hysteria or excessive concern about that at this point of time.”

“Our hope is to be able to avoid that,” he added. “But there’s no telling that we can.”

Kerry will meet his counterpart from Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei V. Lavrov, on Friday in London, seeking a way to de-escalate the crisis.

Is he? 

Related: The Biggest Gun Dealers on Planet Earth

Also seeBoston hedge fund executive Scott Nathan joins State Department

As Russia turned up the heat, the United States was trying to tamp it down.

What a statement when they fomented to coup! No wonder no one believes the NYT anymore.

A US official said the Obama administration had deferred a request from Ukraine’s interim government for military assistance like arms and ammunition, although the administration was “still considering” it. The Ukrainian request and administration response were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Until Thursday, the Russian military actions had been largely confined to asserting control over the Crimean peninsula, the largely Russian-populated area in southern Ukraine that took steps a week ago to secede and join Russia following the ouster of the pro-Kremlin government in Ukraine last month. A Crimean referendum, which Ukraine, the United States and EU have called illegal, is set to ratify that decision on Sunday.

But the buildup on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia signaled possible further moves by the Kremlin to reassert authority by force over territory, also heavily populated by Russians, forfeited in the Soviet Union breakup two decades ago.

Underscoring the potential gravity of the troop movements, Russia’s senior commander, Valery V. Gerasimov, spoke by telephone with his NATO counterpart, General Knud Bartles of Denmark, the news agency Interfax reported, citing a defense source. The details of the conversation were not disclosed.

Russian news agencies also said the Defense Ministry had ordered six Sukhoi-27 fighter jets and three transport planes to Belarus, a Russian ally, to fend off what Belarussian president Alexander Lukashenko, called a potential NATO threat. The Belarus deployment came after NATO sent 12 F-16 fighters to Poland last week.

Oleksandr V. Turchynov, Ukraine’s acting president, said on his official website that he believed Russian forces massed near the border were “ready to intervene in Ukraine at any time,” and that he hoped diplomatic efforts by Ukraine and sympathetic nations would “stop the aggression.”

In Moscow, the military acknowledged significant operations involving armored and airborne troops in the Belgorod, Kursk, and Rostov regions abutting eastern Ukraine, where many ethnic Russians have protested the new interim government in Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, and appealed to Moscow for protection.

As Russia’s largest trading partner in Europe, Germany is certain to have significant influence on the debate about how to respond to Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Some politicians and observers in other European countries and in the U.S. have suggested that Germany’s close trading and other ties with Russia had made it hesitant to adopt sanctions against Russia.

But the EU and US are increasingly unified.

Merkel’s speech, however, suggested that President Vladimir V. Putin might have miscalculated the anger that the occupation and annexation of Crimea would cause — or that he might be impervious to it.

Putin, who has stayed in Sochi for the Paralympics, has showed no sign of bending to criticism.

I'm all finished with my Olympics coverage, sorry.

In a meeting Wednesday with directors of national Paralympic teams, he implicitly reiterated the Kremlin’s argument that the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych was an armed coup instigated by outside forces.

“I would like to assure you that Russia was not the initiator of the circumstances we are now facing,” Putin said.

It really sucks when the "enemy," the rotten Russians, are the ones telling the truth -- especially given the ejewkhazion I was given.

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"Upcoming Crimea referendum kindles confidence and trepidation" by Mike Eckel | Associated Press   March 14, 2014

SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Men hawk Russian tricolor flags to drivers at traffic lights on the streets of the Crimean capital. Minivans emblazoned with election slogans belt out patriotic songs. A World War II bunker has become a drop-off point for people to donate blankets and canned food for armed militiamen who patrol the streets.

One of the two television stations allowed to broadcast in Crimea these days makes no secret of its allegiances: It stuffs the airwaves with clips that display the slogan ‘‘March 16: Together with Russia’’ while blaring the Russian national anthem. They promise higher pensions, higher salaries, and a better quality of life — within Russia’s embrace.

Days before the Black Sea peninsula votes in a referendum on joining Russia, Crimea has slipped into a twilight of nationalist fervor, uncertainty, and trepidation.

The only good nationalism is JEWISH nationalism!

For ethnic Russians, Sunday’s vote has been long coming, a chance to right what they see as a historic wrong. For the ethnic Ukrainians and Tatars who are the minority in Crimea, it is fear that dominates. They fear separation from Ukraine; they fear the loss of an identity that has always been vulnerable in Russian-dominated Crimea; and they fear outright attack from thugs who run around unchecked by the Kremlin-planted regional government.

BoGlo, AP, NYT, WaPo, what's the difference?

In Crimea, momentum is clearly on the pro-Russian side.

Word is the vote came in at 93% for secession.

Pamphlets and fliers urging a ‘‘Yes’’ vote circulated briskly on the streets of Simferopol and the historic naval city of Sevastopol. ‘‘As a part of a mighty multinational country our culture and traditions will be protected,’’ one read.

‘‘We’re ready to vote for [unification with] Russia,’’ said Svetlana Alexandrova, a 72-year-old retired translator. ‘‘Crimea is Russian, and this vote is just bringing us home again.’’

In Sevastopol, which is home to both the Russian and the Ukrainian Black Sea fleets, people sneered at Western reporters, saying the West was spreading lies and supporting ‘‘fascism’’ in the new government in Kiev. Interviews with people walking around the city center revealed overwhelming support for uniting with Russia.

True, and now we understand the reporter hostility!

The ethnic Ukrainian concerns about violence seem justified by reports of sporadic beatings, nighttime abductions, and the beefed-up presence of Russian ultra nationalists.

Oh, ULTRAnationalists now!

Tents belonging to the far-right Russia Unity are scattered through the city’s center, collecting donations for ‘‘self-defense forces’’ and serving tea and snacks to burly men wearing red armbands and to Cossacks in camouflage who guard the entrance to the regional parliament building. The government itself is run by a shadowy Kremlin protege nicknamed the ‘‘goblin’’ who has reported links to criminal gangs. 

Like the Ukranian fa$ci$ts linked to the Jewish mafia?

Crimea’s police department has warned people to be careful about showing passports to strangers — after reports circulated about unnamed people knocking on apartments and homes, asking to check passports needed to vote in the referendum, then either taking the passports or ripping them up if they showed the holder to be an ethnic Ukrainian.

Sunday’s referendum has been organized in the wake of last month’s ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych after months of protests. For many ethnic Russians, the new government in Kiev represents radical Ukrainian nationalism.

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"Latvian official to be fired over march" by KARL RITTER | Associated Press   March 15, 2014

STOCKHOLM — Latvia’s environment minister will be fired for rejecting government orders not to participate in annual commemorations of Latvian soldiers who fought in Nazi units during World War II, a government spokesman said Friday.

Einars Cilinskis, of the right-wing National Alliance, declared Friday that he would attend the events Sunday in Riga, ignoring warnings from Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma.

The prime minister’s spokesman said that Straujuma had no choice but to dismiss Cilinskis and would formally do so Friday evening.

Straujuma had called on Cabinet ministers to stay away from the March 16 events, which are expected to prompt counter-protests from members of Latvia’s Russian-speaking minority. The situation is particularly sensitive this year due to the crisis in Ukraine.

Cilinskis explained his decision to attend the parade by saying that a ‘‘nation that does not respect its heroes has no future,’’ the Baltic News Service reported.

Many Latvians consider the Waffen SS veterans heroes who fought for independence against the Soviet Union, while Russians see the march as an attempt to glorify fascism.

See: The Arajs Kommando 

There is a difference between fascism and fa$ci$m.

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Time to get off the Boston Globe highway.