Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Russian Rublette

These are the articles that came up:

"The ruble’s plunge accelerated Tuesday amid a renewed decline in the price of Russia’s oil for export. The currency was down more than 4 percent, at about 65 rubles per dollar. The ruble hit a record low of 80 per dollar in mid-December before recovering a bit, but has been falling steadily since the start of the year. Selling oil is Russia’s main source of revenue, so the monthslong slump in energy markets has weighed heavily on the country’s economy. The price of Brent crude, an international variety of oil, has plunged from $115 a barrel in June to about $47."

"For some Russians, mortgage costs soaring due to ruble slide" by Irina Titova, Associated Press  January 07, 2015

ST. PETERSBURG — When they took out a mortgage on a small two-room apartment seven years ago, Oksana Li and her husband hoped to make a new home for themselves and their young son.

Now, like thousands of other Russians, they are seeing that dream unravel as they are unable to make payments — even by working longer hours and a second job.

That’s because they are part of a minority of Russians who took out mortgages denominated in a foreign currency to take advantage of lower interest rates abroad. As Russia’s currency collapsed in recent months, the cost of repaying those mortgages has gone through the roof.

Wait until they get the insurance bill.

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‘‘In November, we gathered my entire monthly salary and that of my husband and took it to the bank, but the sum was still not enough to cover the new monthly payment,’’ said Li, a 35-year-old office manager with a Swiss franc mortgage.

Nothing to do with the depegging, right?

When the Li family got their mortgage in 2008, their monthly payment was equivalent to 38,000 rubles. By the end of 2014, it was 129,000 rubles.

Taking mortgages in a foreign currency was an accepted practice in countries like Russia before 2008. The borrower could enjoy the interest rates of the country whose currency the loan was denominated in. Switzerland’s main interest rate, for example, is now near zero, while Russia’s rate is at 17 percent.

But the benefits of the cheaper rates come at the risk of fluctuations in the currency. In the case of Li, payments have soared because the ruble fell by half since last year.

The percentage of Russian mortgages that are currently denominated in foreign currencies is about 3.5 percent, banking analysts say. But that is still tens of thousands of mortgages.

The All-Russia Mortgage Borrowers Community, which was founded on a social networking site in late November, says that at least 250,000 people live in homes covered by foreign-currency mortgages.

Selling the property is not a solution. Since the homes are in Russia, they would be sold in rubles, whereas the debt would remain in the foreign currency. And that leaves the mortgage holders in so-called negative equity.

They call it being underwater over here.

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‘‘We pinched and saved, forgoing vacations, sick leaves, and any nights out,’’ Li said. ‘‘I personally worked 12 hours a day and my husband had two jobs.’’ She lamented that they had not spent enough time with their son, now 12.

Li was among about a dozen people who held a picket on a recent Sunday in St. Petersburg. To avoid possible police detention, they stood one at a time in the cold. On the same day in Moscow, where the protest was sanctioned, as many as 2,000 people joined the rally.

Sergei Ignatyev, coordinator of the group of mortgage holders in St. Petersburg, said they are demanding that banks convert the mortgages to rubles at the rate as of Jan. 1, 2014, when the Russian currency was trading at about 32 to the dollar. The ruble on Tuesday was trading at 63 to the dollar after hitting 80 in mid-December.

The Central Bank, while insisting it has no right to interfere, issued a statement in December saying it would be in the interests of banks and customers to convert mortgages into rubles at a ‘‘reasonable rate.’’

The protests appear to have gotten the government’s attention. Parliament is expected to take up legislation to address the situation when the long New Year and Orthodox Christmas holidays end on Monday.

I wish they would here.

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"Russia forecasts a recession in 2015" New York Times  December 03, 2014

MOSCOW — After months of insisting that Russia can weather sanctions and plunging oil prices, Moscow for the first time is acknowledging that the economy could fall into a recession next year.

The Ministry of Economic Development, which publishes the government’s economic outlook, on Tuesday revised its forecast for 2015 to show a contraction of 0.8 percent, compared with a previous projection of 1.2 percent growth.

The combination of sanctions and plummeting oil prices is catching up with Russia’s economy, wobbly in the best of times because of its heavy reliance on commodity exports.

The ruble has been in a free fall, driven by Russians’ fears of economic isolation and eagerness to change rubles into dollars or euros to move wealth out of the country.

Also boding ill was the scrapping by President Vladimir Putin of a gas pipeline project intended to establish the country’s energy dominance in southeastern Europe.

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"Putin denounces West, vows to bolster Russia’s economy" by Michael Birnbaum, Washington Post  December 05, 2014

MOSCOW — With a recession looming, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the West has had his nation in the cross-hairs for centuries and outlined measures in response aimed at bolstering Russia’s self-sufficiency.

In an annual state-of-the-nation address, a fiery Putin blasted the West and speculators who he said were waging an economic war against Russia. He also made no concessions to Western sanctions, saying instead that they were a spur to bring offshore money home and to invest in Russian industry.

And he gave no indication he would back down from Russian policy toward Ukraine, where a raging conflict has claimed more than 4,300 lives.

Hours later, Secretary of State John F. Kerry blamed Russia for bringing on sanctions for its ‘‘own actions’’ in Ukraine.

Putin’s speech came shortly after an outbreak of the worst violence in the Russian region of Chechnya in years, where Putin crushed an insurgency early in his presidency.

Putin outlined the conflict between Russia and the West in terms of civilization, giving little indication that relations would improve any time soon.

He said Russia’s March annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, which kicked off the worst stretch of relations between the West and Russia since the Cold War, was a ‘‘historic event’’ that would not be reversed.

There is the annexation bout again, and I seem to remember someone saying we all are being LIED to about the true situation in Ukraine, and he is right. That's why I've lagged so long on coverage.

Crimea ‘‘is of huge civilizational importance to Russia, just like the Temple Mount is to Judaism,’’ Putin said, asserting that foundational events in Russian history took place on the Black Sea peninsula.

But he left the door open to Russian economic cooperation with the West, saying that ‘‘Russia will be open to the world,’’ even if it makes moves to improve its own self-sufficiency.

Russia’s economy is expected to go into a recession next year, the result of plummeting oil prices and tough Western sanctions that have crimped investments.

The ruble has fallen significantly in recent weeks, losing more than a third of its value against the dollar since July.

Putin said that Western sanctions against his country were the product of a war against Russia that began long before the period he called the ‘‘Crimean Spring.’’

‘‘I am convinced that if these events had not happened, they would have come up with another excuse seeking to restrain Russia’s growing potential,’’ he said.

The efforts to thwart Russia, he said, ‘‘have existed for decades if not for centuries.’’

In an effort to boost the economy, Putin said that he would freeze taxes on businesses and reduce government inspections of small and midsize enterprises that are found to be compliant with Russian regulations.

He vowed to cut down on corruption and offered a full, no-questions-asked amnesty for Russians bringing back money from abroad.

He also said that although Russia is boosting its defense spending, it did not desire a new arms race with the West, saying that it had more inexpensive ways to strengthen its capabilities.

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"Putin calls annexation of Crimea a historic landmark" by Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press  December 31, 2014

MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin used his New Year’s speech to hail his country’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula as an achievement that will ‘‘forever remain a landmark in the national history.’’

Except it wasn't.

Putin’s comment in his pre-recorded annual address Wednesday already has been broadcast in Russia’s far eastern regions, where the holiday was celebrated hours ahead of Moscow, given the time difference.

The Kremlin also published several dozen New Year’s messages that Putin has sent to heads of state and international organizations, including one to President Obama.

Putin reminded Obama of the upcoming 70th anniversary of the allied victory in World War II, and said that should serve as a reminder of ‘‘the responsibility that Russia and the United States bear for maintaining peace and international stability.’’ Moscow is anxious for those bilateral relations to advance, but only as long as there is ‘‘equality and mutual respect.’’

After Ukraine’s former Russia-friendly president was driven from power in February, Moscow sent troops to overtake Crimea, home to a Russian naval base. Those forces blocked Ukrainian military garrisons and set the stage for a hastily called referendum on Crimea joining Russia, which Ukraine and the West rejected as illegal.

I'm surprised the referendum was mentioned at all in this distorted version of what happened.

The West has imposed crippling sanctions against Russia over the annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s support for a pro-Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine, where the fighting between the government troops and the rebels has killed more than 4,700 since April.

Under the combined blow of the sanctions and slumping oil prices, the Russian ruble has lost about half its value this year and the national economy has drifted into recession. Putin has promised that the economy will rebound in two years, but he has failed to offer a specific plan for easing Russia’s heavy dependence on oil and gas revenues.

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Time to move out of the Crimea:

"Russia’s ruble hit a record low against the dollar. The decline of oil prices has especially hurt Russia."

Amid currency meltdown, Russia raises key interest rate

Russia’s Steep Rate Increase Fails to Stem Ruble’s Decline

Russians rush to stores to preempt price rises

Russia bails out bank following ruble slide

Tourism suffers in winter of EU-Russia discontent

Russia orders exporters to help prop up the ruble

Russia’s central bank will help companies meet their debts

Ruble drops 5 percent as Russia’s economy shrinks

Russian ruble falls further as oil prices continue to tumble

Putin, Acknowledging Financial Turmoil, Assures the Nation It’s Temporary

"Russians optimistic for 2015 despite it all; Putin polls high as ruble tumbles and tensions rise" by Jim Heintz, Associated Press  January 02, 2015

MOSCOW — At the vast skating rink in Moscow’s Gorky Park, Russians say they’re looking forward to a 2015 that will be as smooth as the ice, despite the country’s economic and political difficulties. The ruble has sunk, tensions with the West are up, but the troubles seem to have produced a surge in national pride.

‘‘Russians are a nation of optimists,’’ said Ivan Kasyanov, a skater in his 20s. ‘‘The worse things get, the better we develop.’’

Kasyanov brushed off concerns about the stunning decline of the ruble — which lost about half of its value against Western currencies in 2014 — and the Western sanctions imposed over Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

He doubts these factors would deal a serious blow to an economy that in recent years has soared on oil and gas income. ‘‘We will put more [effort] on our industrial development,’’ he said, echoing the spin on state-controlled TV.

A recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll showed that Russians who rely on state TV for their news think significantly more highly of President Vladimir Putin than those who tap other news sources. Still, the poll showed that in both sectors the support for Putin is resoundingly strong — 84 percent and 73 percent respectively.

Those are numbers that can only make American presidents envious.

Gorky Park itself is a place to encourage optimism. The park became run-down after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, but in recent years it has undergone an impressive restoration, helped along by the money and influence of Roman Abramovich, one of Russia’s richest and most politically compliant men.

The skating rink is its stunning centerpiece, a happy labyrinth of ice-coated lanes festooned with colored lights that extends over about 4½ acres.

But the view is different in other quarters of the Russian capital, even in the ostentatious corridors of the GUM department store, where only the well-heeled can afford to shop.

Beginning to sound like AmeriKa.

‘‘Here, everything changes so often. So I would like stability,’’ shopper Olga Mozalyova said.

Concern is also strong where stock traders anxiously monitor their screens. The ruble’s fall, the plunge in world oil prices, and the sanctions’ denial of access to Western credit have all dealt a blow to the Russian economy.

‘‘Maybe if Russia doesn’t give cause for the strengthening of sanctions, we can get a positive result in that case,’’ said Sergei Romanchuk at Metallinvestbank.

The chances of that are not promising.

In his televised New Year’s Eve message to the nation, Putin hailed the annexation of Crimea as a historic achievement and the rightful return of the peninsula’s people to the bosom of Russia.

Although the fighting between pro-Russian separatists and government forces in eastern Ukraine has eased since September, there has been little progress on ensuring a stable cease-fire, much less withdrawing heavy weapons or resolving the complicated and inflammatory question of the region’s political status.

In the offices of Russia’s opposition groups, who endure constant pressure from authorities and struggle to find public support, the view of 2015 is ominous.

‘‘The end is near, the country is at the brink of going down,’’ said Mikhail Kasyanov, who was Putin’s first prime minister but is a now firm opponent. ‘‘That’s why I’m saying that people will take to the streets demanding a change of the situation. . . . 2015 is a very important year, I would say it may be a historic year.’’

So is mine, and I agree.

The opposition, usually all but invisible to ordinary Russians, made a brief show of protest two days before New Year’s. About two thousand demonstrators defied police and gathered near the Kremlin to protest the conviction of opposition stalwart Alexei Navalny and his brother on fraud charges. But the demonstration was far smaller than anti-Putin protests two winters ago.

RelatedMoscow court rushes verdict to Putin’s chief foe

Russia to seek 10-year sentence for Putin critic

Putin foe avoids jail but decries Kremlin for punishing his brother

Navalny, Putin critic, removes tracking bracelet in challenge to Kremlin

Pray for them.

New Year’s Day begins an extended holiday for most Russians that stretches through Orthodox Christmas until Jan. 12. The winter break is so beloved by most Russians that engaging in any serious actions like protests seems almost sacrilegious.

A survey by the state pollster VTsIOM showed Russians plan to spend about 20 percent more on holiday feasts and presents than they did two years ago.

That's a lot more than the di$mal Chri$tmas season here, and a lot for people headed into recession.

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"Russia appeals for calm as crisis forces it to cut budget" by James Ellingworth and Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press  January 15, 2015

MOSCOW — Russian government officials appealed for calm Wednesday after predicting budget cuts and a further surge in inflation as the country faces its worst economic downturn in 15 years.

With the currency and economy wilting under the twin blows of Western sanctions and a fall in the price of oil exports, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov proposed slashing some 10 percent to most areas of the state budget.

That is a significant turnaround for the government of President Vladimir Putin, who only weeks ago told the nation in a televised address that state spending would not be cut.

Many parts of the economy, which relies heavily on public spending, will be affected, though Russia’s vast military modernization program and spending on infrastructure reforms will remain untouched as the country tries to reassert its power in the face of the West.

Really, I'm tired of getting stuck on this pot-hollering kettle crap media.

That means Russians, who have seen the cost of imports jump as a result of the fall in the ruble, can expect more increases in the cost of living.

Inflation could hit an annual rate of 17 percent in the spring, the deputy economic development minister, Alexei Vedev, was quoted as saying by the Tass news agency. Last year, inflation was 11.4 percent, the highest rate since 2008.

The Russian ruble, which lost about half of its value last year, was down another 1 percent in afternoon trading in Moscow, to just above 66 rubles per dollar.

Russia’s central bank has acted to stabilize the ruble and limit inflation. It raised interest rates sharply last year and intervened directly in currency markets. Higher rates, however, will hurt the domestic economy, as they make borrowing more expensive.

Of course, when the Fed raises them in AmeriKa it means the economy is humming.

While government spending will still rise overall this year, it will do so only by 5 percent, as opposed to the previous plan for 12 percent, Siluanov said.

Probably a good thing.

He said that if oil prices average $50 a barrel this year, government revenues will be around $45 billion lower than in an earlier budget plan. The price of international crude oil was below $47 a barrel on Wednesday, near a six-year low.

Meanwhile, the World Bank on Wednesday sharply downgraded its predictions for Russia’s economy, foreseeing a 2.9 percent contraction in 2015.

As its prospects darken, Russia is highly likely to see its bond rating downgraded to junk status by Standard & Poor’s in coming days, said the economic development minister, Alexei Ulyukaev.

What, the same guys who triple-A'd the bogus mortgage-backed securities? Who cares what they say?

Speaking at a conference alongside Siluanov, Ulyukaev asked Russians not to panic.

‘‘In a crisis situation, the main thing is to preserve mental calm . . . and most of all to think about your own health and the health of your family,’’ he said.

Natalya Orlova, an analyst with Alfa Bank, said the government will want to direct cuts away from high-employment sectors if possible, and instead target new projects and services.

With some areas of the Russian economy protected from budget cuts, others face pain.

The government is well aware of the risks of cuts to the health care system, a potentially explosive prospect after layoffs at Moscow hospitals sparked protests in November. At least 5,000 people took to the streets in Moscow to protest those cuts, which could see up to 10,000 doctors removed from their jobs in the capital.

RelatedThousands rally in Moscow against health care cuts

Nothing to see there, move along.

Education is also in need of ‘‘structural reforms,’’ Siluanov said, suggesting it could take a hit. Like the health care system, education retains a reputation for Soviet-style working practices and often decrepit facilities.

They cut the same things as AmeriKan commissars.

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"Russia defiant after more threats from West over Ukraine" by Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press  January 27, 2015

MOSCOW — A defiant President Vladimir Putin called the Ukrainian army a ‘‘NATO foreign legion’’ on Monday, reflecting his readiness to stand up to the West regardless of rising economic costs, as Standard & Poor’s rating agency downgraded Russia’s credit rating to junk.

He's right.

RelatedFalling oil, sanctions push S&P to cut Russia’s debt to junk

While the Russian ruble tumbled further on the news of the downgrade, Putin’s spokesman shrugged off the Western threat of more sanctions as ‘‘short-sighted.’’

The Kremlin’s uncompromising stance is rooted in its desire to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO by securing a broad autonomy for the rebellious provinces in the east. To avoid being called a party to the conflict, as Ukraine and the West see it, Russia is pushing the Ukrainian government to speak directly to the rebels.

The latest rebel offensive, which involved the shelling of the city of Mariupol over the weekend, appeared aimed at pressuring Kiev into such talks.

Speaking to students in St. Petersburg, Putin said the Ukrainian leadership was to blame for the upsurge in violence and accused it of using civilians as ‘‘cannon fodder’’ in the conflict.

Again, how sad is it that the "enemy" is right in my new$paper?

Ukraine’s army “is not even an army, it’s a foreign legion, in this case a NATO foreign legion,’’ Putin said, adding that it’s serving the goal of ‘‘the geopolitical containment of Russia, which absolutely don’t coincide with the national interests of the Ukrainian people.’’

You can say what you want about Putin, but he's no fool.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed the assertion and accused Russia of sending large numbers of heavy weapons to the rebels. ‘‘We have seen a substantial increase in the flow of equipment from Russia to the separatists in Ukraine,’’ he said.

That tactic and those lies have worn thin.

A Russian envoy at the 57-nation Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe rejected those allegations, arguing that the rebels are using old Soviet-era weapons they seized from the Ukrainian arsenals.

Andrey Kelin, who spoke after the organization called a special session on the uptick in fighting, said the rebels are using ‘‘very old Soviet equipment’’ dating to the mid-1960s.

Ever since the separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine flared up in April following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, Russia has denied Western accusations that it has backed the insurgents with troops and weapons.

Why do I believe Russia over my own government and its mouthpiece, hmmmm?

But even though Ukrainian troops and the rebels use the same types of Soviet-built arms, the sheer number of heavy weapons in the rebels’ possession has been seen in the West as a proof of Moscow’s involvement in the conflict.

OMG!!!!!

From the onset of the conflict, which has claimed more than 5,100 since April, Russia urged the Ukrainian authorities to offer broad powers to the east and amnesty to the rebels.

A cease-fire deal signed in September by representatives of the government and the insurgents included some of those provisions along with a pledge to withdraw foreign fighters and place monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on the Russian-Ukrainian border, but it has been violated by both parties and fighting has continued.

A lull in fighting in December raised hopes for a peaceful settlement, but hostilities escalated again in recent weeks as the rebels launched a series of new offensives.

Yeah, it's always the other guy, the "enemy" that started it.

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Maybe you guys could make love, not war:

"User names and e-mail addresses of 20 million visitors to a dating site based in Russia have been hacked and offered for sale online, according to Daniel Ingevaldson, chief technology officer at Easy Solutions Inc, which makes fraud-detection software. The dating site, Topface, did not respond to a request for comment. Ingevaldson said it is no longer clear that users’ passwords were also taken, as he originally told Bloomberg. But hackers can use such credentials to try to access bank accounts, health records, and other sensitive data, he said. He issued a statement about the breach after seeing a posting by the thief, who used the alias “Mastermind,” on an online forum used by cybercriminals. Fifty percent of the credentials were for people in Russia, and 40 percent came from the European Union. Ingevaldson said such personal information usually sells quickly to fraudsters who use automated software programs to find other sites where people used the same information they did to access the dating site, to help them build a more complete profile of the fraud target."

It's uncertain what comes next.

"Russian government details spending cuts in view of crisis" by Nataliya Vasilyeva, Associated Press  January 29, 2015

MOSCOW — The Russian government, facing its worst economic crisis in a decade, on Wednesday detailed how it intends to cut spending over the next three years in all parts of the economy except military and social programs.

Russia’s economy has been battered by lower energy prices, a collapse in the value of the ruble, and Western sanctions over its involvement in Ukraine. Russia’s GDP is expected to decline by 4 to 5 percent this year, the first drop since 2009. The ruble has lost half of its value while the Standard & Poor’s ratings agency downgraded Russia’s credit rating to a noninvestment — ‘‘junk’’ — level for the first time in more than a decade.

Faced with a slide in its public finances, the government this month said it would slash spending broadly. In a more detailed report published Wednesday on the government’s website, it foresees spending cuts of 10 percent this year and 5 percent over the next two years.

The plan lists measures that authorities will take to support the economy, including $3.7 billion to prop up Russian banks and $700 million in agricultural subsidies.

Speaking at the upper house of Parliament, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the government does not expect oil prices to go back to $100 a barrel so ‘‘we and our economy will have to adapt to new conditions.’’

The budget proposal, which has yet to be approved by Parliament, will not affect military and social spending, which account for 4.2 percent and 5 percent of spending, respectively.

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