"Japan’s economy dodges recession" by Elaine Kurtenbach Associated Press December 09, 2015
TOKYO — Japan sidestepped recession last quarter: Revised data released Tuesday showed its economy grew at an annual 1.0 percent pace.
Well, it's official. Governments lie about economies.
A previous estimate had shown the world’s third-largest economy had contracted 0.8 percent in the July-September quarter, after shrinking 0.5 percent in the previous quarter. Two consecutive quarters of contraction are considered a recession.
The revised growth figure makes it less likely that Japan’s central bank will deploy further monetary stimuli anytime soon, despite slow progress toward its goal of 2 percent inflation.
The data show stronger corporate investment and a slightly higher pace of growth in exports than earlier reported.
But the major change was an upward revision in inventories to 1.5 trillion yen ($12.2 billion) from a preliminary estimate that inventories fell 1.9 trillion yen ($15.4 billion). That may not auger well for future growth if manufacturers are overshooting demand from companies and consumers.
‘‘Actually, relative to the impressive gain in income, private domestic demand . . . remains quite low,’’ Masamichi Adachi of JPMorgan said in a research note. He described the inventories situation as a wild card.
Economists are forecasting about 1.5 percent growth in the current quarter.
Japanese companies are investing heavily overseas while holding back on wage increases and factory upgrades at home, despite repeated entreaties by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to do more to help the recovery along....
$ound familiar, American?
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"Japan’s industrial output fell for the first time in three months in November as exports declined more than expected and households spent less. Production slumped 1 percent from October, but from last year, output was up 1.6 percent, the industry ministry said Monday. Retail sales declined 2.5 percent from October. The data add to mixed signals for the Japanese economy, which is forecast to continue growing this quarter after revised data showed it expanded 1 percent in the three months through September."
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