Saturday, December 14, 2013

Slow Saturday Special: Ukraine Update

Related:

Ukrainian Unrest an Attempt to Roll Back Russia
E.U. and U.S. Behind Ukrainian Unrest

And the last update I gave you before today.

"Ukraine protesters wary of pledge to sign EU pact; Bolster defenses around camp after police raid" by Will Englund |  Washington Post, December 13, 2013

KIEV — The European Union’s top diplomat told reporters in Brussels on Thursday that President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine had ‘‘made it clear to me that he intends to sign’’ a trade agreement with the bloc. But protesters weren’t buying it and spent the day bolstering the five formidable snow and ice barricades that protect their long-running encampment.

Yanukovych, who backed out of signing the EU agreement in November, has said all along that he still wants to pursue a deal, even as he also pursues another one with Russia. Skepticism about Yanukovych’s utterances runs deep among Ukrainians, but if he really means what he says this time, it could be because Western governments have emphasized that Wednesday’s botched police raid in Independence Square has emboldened his opposition and left him with a very small ledge to stand on....

You can almost hear the agenda-pushing pre$$ yelling "Jump, Viktor, jump!"

That suggests a long winter ahead for the opposition, which has shown no signs of flagging....

Ukraine is running out of money and faces the likelihood of default, perhaps before spring. The EU is open to working out a deal for the country with the International Monetary Fund. Russia, for its part, has offered to reduce the price Ukraine must pay for natural gas if it moves to join the new Eurasian Customs Union.

‘‘I’m sure achieving Eurasian integration will only increase interest from our other neighbors, including from our Ukrainian partners,’’ President Vladimir Putin of Russia said Thursday in his state of the nation address in Moscow.

A Ukrainian delegation headed to Brussels on Thursday for further talks, although analysts said the EU should avoid giving the impression it is rewarding Yanukovych for the police action a day earlier.

‘‘I would be very careful about any forecasts,’’ Igor Burakovsky, head of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting here, wrote in an e-mail.

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the United States might consider imposing personal sanctions on Ukrainian officials if there is more police violence.

Unreal!

At this point, it’s not clear that even an ironclad commitment to go the European route would satisfy the opposition and the thousands of protesters in the capital. That’s the issue that brought them out Nov. 21, but since then the theme has broadened to include punishment for those responsible for a Nov. 30 police raid — including the interior minister — and the release of all ‘‘political’’ prisoners, as well as the dismissal of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and his Cabinet.

Yanukovych has offered to hold round-table discussions with the opposition, but its leaders have refused to participate until he starts meeting their demands.

Beyond that, protesters have targeted the corruption that marks Ukraine in general and Yanukovych’s government in particular, and have demanded his removal from office.

The likelihood of that, barring a major misstep on his part, appears to be slim.

--more--"

"Ukraine president tells protesters: ‘calm down’; But oligarchs are growing uneasy with Yanukovych" by David M. Herszenhorn |  New York Times, December 14, 2013

KIEV, Ukraine — In his first meeting with opposition leaders since the outbreak of a sustained civil uprising here, President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine had a succinct message Friday for the tens of thousands of protesters calling for changes at the highest levels of government. He urged them to stop protesting.

“I appeal to our citizens,” Yanukovych said at the end of a more than two-hour meeting that included protest organizers, religious leaders, and all three former presidents of Ukraine. “Calm down and stop the confrontation. Confrontation has never led to anything good.”

The round-table talks occurred as Yanukovych, whose popularity has plummeted since his abrupt decision last month to back away from signing political and free trade accords with Europe, is under intensifying pressure to resolve the crisis.

It is coming not only from officials in the West and in Russia, who have been in a tug of war for influence over Ukraine’s future, but also from some of Ukraine’s wealthiest and most influential businessmen — the oligarchs —who seem increasingly jarred by the instability and uncertainty in the country, and worried about the quickly deteriorating economy.

The country’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, a multibillionaire widely viewed as an ally of Yanukovych’s, issued a statement Friday expressing support for demonstrators and urging that the government offer a clearer picture of its intentions. It was a highly unusual commentary on public affairs by a man who generally prefers to operate privately.

Since backing away from the accords with Europe, Yanukovych has been in negotiations with Moscow over desperately needed economic aid, and he is scheduled to meet Tuesday with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. At the round-table meeting, one of the country’s senior religious leaders, Patriarch Filaret of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyivan Patriarchate, warned Yanukovych not to use force against protesters or to join Putin’s fledgling customs union of post-Soviet states.

“Use of force only calls for more force,” Filaret said, sitting directly across the table from Yanukovych, who at times alternatively seemed pained and bored throughout the meeting. “And what does that mean? A civil war. Do we want a civil war? None of us wants a civil war.”

“It is impossible to disperse the square by force,” Filaret said. “It will gather again. And if you join the customs union, even more people will come out.”

--more--"