"Poll suggests governor’s race is tossup; Baker on heels of Patrick; Cahill slips further back" by Noah Bierman, Globe Staff | September 18, 2010
The Rasmussen Reports poll indicated that Democratic Governor Deval Patrick leads Republican gubernatorial candidate Charles D. Baker 42 percent to 38 percent among likely voters, with independent Timothy P. Cahill, the state treasurer, at 11 percent; Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein was not included....
The new results are within the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error, and Rasmussen now says it has moved the race from “Leans Democrat’’ to “Tossup’’ on its national scorecard.
If so-called leaners are included — those who initially do not indicate a preference for a candidate — the margin at the top tightens and Cahill’s support drops further. Including leaners, Patrick leads Baker 45 percent to 42 percent, with Cahill garnering 5 percent....
Baker’s campaign said that the new poll results suggest that Patrick remains unpopular and that Baker, still unknown by many voters, has room to grow. Patrick’s campaign counters that the poll was taken just after the governor launched his first TV ad, while his opponents have already been on the airwaves for weeks.
Cahill’s campaign yesterday dismissed suggestions that his candidacy was in trouble, saying the treasurer drew 1,400 people to a rally and fund-raiser in Quincy on Thursday night. In a statement, Cahill said his opponents should not count him out.
“Something special is happening right now and we are seeing it everywhere,’’ he said. “I have always had faith in the people of Massachusetts, and I continue to have faith that they will elect me their next governor on November 2d.’’
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"Poll indicates Patrick increasing lead over Baker in governor’s race; But news mixed for incumbent" by Stewart Bishop, Globe Correspondent | September 21, 2010
A new poll indicates that Governor Deval Patrick is widening his lead over his Republican opponent, Charles D. Baker, in the gubernatorial contest.
The 7NEWS Suffolk University poll of 500 registered voters has Patrick leading Baker 41 to 34 percent, with independent candidate Timothy P. Cahill, the state treasurer, at 14 percent, and Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein, with 4 percent, WHDH Channel 7 News reported last night. Six percent of voters were undecided.
With a little over a month to go until Election Day, the latest poll indicates Patrick’ support growing....
Related: Boston Globe Bubble Will Not Burst
Don't stop believin', Globe!
The new poll was not all good news for the governor.
Despite his lead, 52 percent of respondents said Patrick does not deserve to be reelected, and among respondents who are familiar with both the Republican and Democratic candidates, Baker led Patrick 39 to 38 percent....
Then HE is DONE!!
Other parts of the poll also had some mixed news for Patrick....
The poll also indicates that if Cahill were not in the race, Baker would get 45 percent of Cahill’s votes and Patrick would get 34 percent.
Don't worry; Globe will fix that.
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Related: Cahill vows to stay in governor’s race
"Baker catches Patrick in new poll; Voters focusing on economy; Cahill’s effect on race unclear" by Frank Phillips and Michael Levenson, Globe Staff | September 26, 2010
With just five weeks to the election, Republican Charles D. Baker has pulled even with Governor Deval Patrick in a gubernatorial race shaped by anti-incumbent sentiment and unusually high excitement among Republican voters, according to a new Boston Globe poll.
See: State Set For November
The poll results also suggest that independent Timothy P. Cahill is pulling voters equally from Baker and Patrick, raising questions about the conventional political thinking that his candidacy is undercutting Baker’s chance to defeat the governor in the Nov. 2 election.
Translation: your newspaper lied to you again, Bay-Stater.
In the Globe poll, taken last week, Patrick, a Democrat, won support from 35 percent of likely voters, compared with 34 percent for Baker, a statistical tie given the poll’s margin of error. Cahill, the state treasurer who left the Democratic Party last year, continued to lag far behind with 11 percent. Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein got 4 percent, and 14 percent said they remain undecided.
Patrick has lost ground to Baker since the Globe last surveyed voters in June, when the governor led his Republican challenger, 38 to 31 percent. Cahill, damaged by negative ads from the Republican Governors Association, is having difficulty climbing back into a race in which he was once a major contender....
The poll indicates that voter turnout on Election Day will be key. The current trend favors Baker, because Republicans are much more enthusiastic about the election than Democrats.
Like a snowball rolling downhill in the cartoons.
Some 78 percent of likely GOP voters say they are excited about the race, compared with only 37 percent of likely Democratic voters. Among the subset of 245 voters surveyed who said they were excited about the race, Baker beat Patrick, 52 to 25 percent.
“The energy in this election is certainly on the Republican side,’’ said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll for the Globe.
That excitement is likely to drive Baker supporters to the polls, while Democrats could see a lower turnout than in past elections, Smith said.
“That spells trouble for Patrick,’’ he said....
Smith said that one of the most significant findings — especially damaging to Patrick as he celebrates the state’s recent economic gains — is that voters are still pessimistic about the direction of the state’s economy. More than half of respondents, 59 percent, cited jobs and the economy as the most important problem facing Massachusetts, far more than any other issue.
The intense voter focus on the economy makes it tough for Patrick to advance his case that Massachusetts is on a path to recovery — and at a faster clip than the rest of the country. Indeed, 41 percent of those polled said they are worse off now than they were a year ago, even though Massachusetts has been adding jobs for months; 36 percent said they are coping about the same, and 21 percent said they are better off.
Translation: we are TIRED of being LIED TO by GOVERNMENT and GLOBE!!
If that were true, WHY are MORE PEOPLE WORSE OFF?!!
Only 40 percent said the state is going in the right direction, while 50 percent disagreed. Those numbers remains unchanged since the June poll, although they are an improvement from July 2009, when Patrick’s popularity was at its lowest.
Look at the Globe reaching for STRAWS!
The poll indicates that Patrick’s standing with voters, which seemed to be improving in polls taken earlier this year, has plateaued. Voters hold largely the same opinion of him as they did in June — 42 percent of poll respondents this time said they viewed him favorably, compared with 43 percent who see him unfavorably.
And that is a pro-Patrick Globe poll! Imagine what the REAL NUMBERS ARE!
Patrick’s appeal to unenrolled voters is perilously low. Only 24 percent of self-described independents have a favorable opinion of the governor, compared with 59 percent who view him unfavorably.
Bye-bye, Deval!!
Patrick has other hurdles, notably a prevailing anti-incumbent mood. A majority of likely voters polled, 52 percent, said they want a new group of leaders in Washington and Massachusetts; only 29 percent said they trust the current leadership.
Meaning WE DON'T TRUST THEM AT ALL!!!!
Patrick’s job approval rating continues to remains low, as well. Only 40 percent of likely voters say they approve of the job he is doing, while 48 percent disapprove....
Baker’s strength appears to rest on his appeal to unenrolled, or independent, voters, who make up more than 50 percent of the electorate and often determine statewide races. Among registered independents, he leads Patrick 35 percent to 28 percent, with Cahill getting 13 percent.
But Baker’s pitch that he is better equipped to handle state finances has brought mixed results, the poll suggests. With a $2 billion deficit looming next year, voters are divided over whom they trust to handle budget and fiscal problems.
Pffft! But we want new.
Thirty-one percent said they trust Patrick on the issue — the exact same level of support won by Baker, who spent four years as state budget chief under two Republican governors in the 1990s.
Baker enjoys the best favorability rating among the three major candidates, although not by a wide margin. Thirty-one percent said they viewed him favorably, 25 percent viewed him negatively, 14 percent were neutral, and 30 percent said they didn’t know enough to say.
Look at the Globe pouring over the stuff hoping to find a kernel of corn in the s*** Patrick is in.
One potential drag on Baker, who has adopted an angry tone in his appeals to disgruntled voters, is his likability.
WRONG, Globe!
We LIKE ANGRY THIS YEAR because WE ARE FURIOUS!!
Yeah, the election is going to turn on WHO YOU LIKE!!
What a DISGUSTING piece of PROPAGANDA!!!!!
Not even a majority of Baker’s own supporters — just 44 percent — identified him as the most likable candidate, compared with 71 percent of Patrick’s supporters who identified the governor as the most likeable. Among all likely voters, Patrick was by far the most likable, followed by Baker, and then Cahill.
Except we are not electing a best friend, Globe; we are voting for GOVERNOR!
The governor is also considered the most in touch with voters and the strongest leader, while Baker is seen as most likely to bring change.
Yup, that LAST THING is what we WANT!!
Patrick’s likability could help swing voters open to changing their minds.
They are REALLY, REALLY REACHING!
Thomas R. Collaro, an investigator with the federal Department of Agriculture, said he is leaning toward Baker but his second choice is Patrick.
Well, THAT AIN'T GOING to get it done!
He said he does not agree with Patrick on education and feels the sales tax increase, signed by the governor last year, was “a bit too much.’’
“I find Baker something different,’’ said Collaro, a registered Independent. “Massachusetts seems to perform better with a Republican governor.’’
That SURE IS the TRUTH!!
Facing a barrage of TV ads and debates, some voters are feeling whiplashed.
I was thinking of another term -- like a violent sexual assault.
Janet O’Hara, a registered Democrat who told a survey interviewer she would vote for Baker, said in a follow-up interview that she had changed her mind after watching the heated debate among the four candidates Tuesday night. She said she was turned off by the anger she said Baker projected and his failure to directly answer questions.
“Now I am leaning toward Cahill, but I liked Stein and will even look at Deval,’’ said O’Hara, a Patrick voter in 2006 who was laid off from her job last year and is now starting a consulting business.
So Deval is her FOURTH CHOICE out of FOUR, huh?
This is the HOPE the GLOBE is EXTOLLING?
Despite the broad dissatisfaction with incumbents, Democrats still held a significant advantage over Republicans when voters were asked which party they would choose in elections for Congress and the state House.
Forty-five percent said they will vote for the Democratic candidate for US House, compared with 34 percent who said they will vote Republican, and 19 percent who were undecided.
That is in SUPPOSEDLY LIBERAL, Democratically-dominated Massachusetts!
NOT a GOOD SIGN for DEMOCRATS NATIONWIDE!!
But among voters in Southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape, and the Islands, which has a spirited race for an open congressional seat, voters were equally divided, with 41 percent saying they will vote Democratic and 41 percent saying they will vote Republican.
I think it would be GREAT to send a REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBER to Washington!!
In other statewide races, Democrats have an edge over their Republican competitors. Democrat Steve Grossman, a former party leader and businessman, won support from 40 percent of likely voters, compared with 30 percent for Republican Karyn Polito, a state lawmaker. In the race for auditor, Democrat Suzanne Bump, a former Patrick Cabinet official, narrowly led Republican Mary Connaughton, a former Turnpike Authority board member, 33 percent to 29 percent.
Related: Who's Auditing the Auditors?
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Also see:
- Globe's Governor's Race: Checking the Polls
- Globe's Governor's Race: Burying Charles Baker
- Globe's Governor's Race: Democrats Cook Up Dirty Tricks on Baker
- Globe's Governor's Race: Campaign Cash Champ
- Globe's Governor's Race: Patrick's Broken Promise
- Globe's Governor's Race: Uniting Behind Patrick
- Globe's Governor's Race: Patrick Plays the Race Card
- Globe's Governor's Race: State Treasurer Didn't Pay His Taxes
- Globe's Governor's Race: Economy Stuck in the Marshes
- Globe's Governor's Race: Gambling on Casinos
- Globe's Governor's Race: Immigration is the Issue
- Globe's Governor's Race: Gay Gripes
- Globe's Governor's Race: Hot Wind on the Campaign Trail
