Governor Deval Patrick, whose reelection prospects appeared dim just months ago, heads into this weekend’s state Democratic convention with the political wind at his back and his party increasingly confident he can mount a strong campaign to win a second term.
Patrick’s resurgence has given hope to the some 4,000 delegates arriving at the Worcester conclave today that the party can weather the political turbulence and anti-incumbent fervor affecting state and national politics this year. Republicans believe this is their best chance in years to make major gains in Massachusetts....
The party gathering comes as several recent polls show Patrick with a double-digit lead over Republican Charles D. Baker, with independent Timothy P. Cahill....
I would just like to remind the readers that this is the same paper that picked Marty Coakley to win by double-digits the week of the special election.
Patrick’s lead in the surveys reflects several good months for the governor, during which the economy has been rebounding and he was able to play high-profile leadership roles in the spring floods and the drinking water crisis.
Related: The Great New England Flood of 2010
I really do not see how that helps him.
All the while, his two rivals squabbled, driving their poll numbers down, as Patrick — returning to the energetic politicking that won him the 2006 race — hit the campaign trail. After making several political missteps during a period when the economy appeared to be crumbling, Patrick’s poll numbers had collapsed last year to the point that some analysts were convinced he could not get reelected.
Related: Patrick's Plummeting Polls
Slow Saturday Special: Patrick's Invisible Approval
Just remember it is ALWAYS WORSE than what the agenda-pushing pro-Democrat paper has to say.
“The momentum is clearly on his side at the moment,’’ said Michael Shea, a Democratic media consultant. “The stars seem to be aligning in his favor, and he seems to have hit his stride.’’
Still, the governor’s race has five long months left, and Patrick’s standing could shift again by the fall....
Democratic incumbents and candidates — some of whom only months ago were running from the governor — will look to ride Patrick’s coattails, counting on him to blunt any GOP resurgence....
--more--"A new poll shows Republican challenger Charles D. Baker closing the gap on Deval Patrick, the incumbent Democrat, in the race for Massachusetts governor.
In the Rasmussen Reports survey released yesterday, Patrick logged 41 percent, Baker was at 34 percent, and Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill, an independent, was third at 16 percent.
A Rasmussen poll a month ago had Patrick ahead by 14 points, leading Baker 45 percent to 31 percent, with Cahill third at 14 percent.
Cut in half in less than a month, huh?
The polls did not include a fourth candidate, challenger Jill Stein of the Green-Rainbow Party....
Since the last Rasmussen poll, Baker has benefited from a television advertisement paid for by the Massachusetts Republican Party, and the poll showed Baker to be the choice of 42 percent, a plurality, of unenrolled, or independent, voters, who constitute more than half the electorate in the state....
You know, the PEOPLE WHO DECIDE ELECTIONS!
Like ME!!
Governor Deval Patrick has improved his political standing in recent months but still faces major hurdles in his bid for reelection, according to a new Boston Globe poll, which shows Republican rival Charles D. Baker gaining ground and many voters dissatisfied with the direction of the state and the governor’s handling of his job.
Absolutely! Like Obama, we are SO DISAPPOINTED in the "change!"
Patrick won the support of 38 percent of likely voters in the survey, while Baker, who is still unknown to much of the electorate, received 31 percent. State Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill, a former Democrat running as an independent, trailed far behind with 9 percent. Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein received 2 percent....
It's over for Cahill.
“The Republican strategy to make this a race between Baker and Patrick seems to be working,’’ said Andrew E. Smith, director of University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll for the Globe.
Smith said both Baker and Patrick have recaptured support from party voters who had earlier been leaning toward Cahill. Baker’s surge has been particularly strong, up from 19 percent in the earlier Globe poll....
Despite some improvement, the poll indicates Patrick is suffering from anti-incumbent sentiment — reflected especially in concerns over illegal immigration and the economy — that could sway races up and down the ballot this fall.
Related: Globe's Governor's Race: Immigration is the Issue
Globe's Governor's Race: Economy Stuck in the Marshes
Only 28 percent of those surveyed said they trusted current state and federal leaders, while 50 percent said they wanted a new crop.
Goodbye, Guv!
“We need to send a wake-up call to Washington and to Beacon Hill,’’ said Winnie Miller, a 68-year-old retired social worker from Leicester interviewed for the poll.
Incumbents out.
Miller, an unenrolled voter, said she supports Baker, although she knows little about him. She said Patrick has not done enough to deal with unemployment, crack down on illegal immigration, or rein in spending.
“Enough is enough. Spending has gone crazy in Massachusetts,’’ she said....
And that is from a former state worker!
Other barometers of the governor’s popularity — job performance, favorability rating, and opinions on what direction the state is headed — indicate that his standing with voters is still shaky.
Forty-two percent of respondents said they approve of the job Patrick is doing, while 49 percent disapprove; pollsters consider a 46 percent job approval rating necessary for an incumbent to win reelection, although the figure may be slightly lower in a three- or four-way race. The governor’s numbers, however, have improved markedly from a year ago, when a Globe poll found 35 percent of respondents expressing approval of Patrick’s job performance, with 56 percent disapproving.
So says the Globe. Their record is not that good.
Roger Shea, a government professor at Massasoit Community College who lives in Abington and was interviewed for the poll, is a Democrat who voted for Patrick in 2006. He said his attitude toward the governor has improved, and that he is now leaning toward supporting him....
Holding on to his base isn't going to get it done.
Voters, by a huge margin, cited the economy and unemployment as the most important problem facing the state....
And anything else will be agenda-pushing diversions!
Illegal immigration was barely mentioned when voters were asked to name the issue that concerns them most. However, 85 percent of respondents said illegal immigration was a “very serious’’ or “somewhat serious’’ problem facing the country. A majority said they feel strongly that the state should do more to ensure that people here illegally do not receive public benefits.
Yeah, if ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is the issue REPUBLICANS are going to ROLL in a LANDSLIDE!
I suspect that is why it has been removed as an issue the past few weeks.
Only a slim majority said they support expanded gambling....
Also see: Globe's Governor's Race: Gambling on Casinos
You lose, voters.
In a significant sign of voter discontent, only 40 percent of respondents think Massachusetts is headed in the right direction, while 49 percent think things are off track. The good news for Patrick is that views on the state’s direction have improved as the economy has picked up. In a Globe poll last summer, 31 percent thought Massachusetts was headed in the right direction, with 61 percent saying it was off-course.
And then the economy dipped again!
Patrick can also take some comfort in the improvements in his favorability rating. Forty-three percent of respondents said they view him favorably, 45 percent view him unfavorably, and 12 percent are neutral. That is better than last July, when 36 percent said they liked him, and 52 percent said they did not.
Look at the Globe GRASPING at STRAWS for the guverner!
But it is a huge drop in popularity from December 2008, when a Globe poll showed him with a 64 percent favorable rating.
What’s more, Patrick’s efforts to present himself as a reformer are not getting much traction....
Hard to do after he has done nothing for three years.
--more--"
But he's still leading the Globe says:
"Patrick maintains his lead despite rivals’ ad campaigns
Governor Deval Patrick still maintains a lead in his race for reelection, according to a national poll that shows little change in the standings despite the approximately $2 million spent by his rivals on television advertising.
This article is available in our archives:
Patrick leads Republican Charles Baker, 38 to 32 percent, while Independent Timothy F. Cahill gets 17 percent, according to the monthly survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports....
--more--"
"Candidate spending tells tale of dueling strategies; Priorities differ in governor race" by Brian C. Mooney, Globe Staff | August 22, 2010
Recent polls indicate the race has been fairly static, with Patrick holding a modest lead over Baker, and Cahill in third. In polls that include her, Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein has been in single digits....
And the lead is down to.... ?
"Patrick holding thin lead in poll; Challengers hope to close ground with new TV ads" by Michael Levenson, Globe Staff | September 4, 2010
Governor Deval Patrick continues to cling to a small lead in the governor’s race, according to a new poll, but his challengers are hoping to close ground quickly with a barrage of new television ads they launched yesterday to appeal to disaffected voters.
Patrick won the support of 39 percent of likely voters, edging out his Republican rival, Charles D. Baker, who had 34 percent, and easily beating state Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill, an independent, who had 18 percent, in a Sept. 1 telephone survey by Rasmussen Reports. Those figures are virtually unchanged from a July 22 Rasmussen poll that had Patrick at 38 percent, Baker at 32 percent, and Cahill at 17 percent.
And if Baker cuts one point of the poll lead over the next eight weeks... he's a winner!
But the poll reflects worrisome trends for the governor two months before Election Day, including dissatisfaction with his job performance and potentially growing support for Baker.
For example, the poll indicates that the race is even closer at the top — with Patrick at 44 percent, Baker 42 percent, and Cahill 8 percent — when the survey includes “leaners,’’ those who initially indicate no preference for a candidate but are then asked toward whom they are leaning.
In addition, Patrick’s job approval rating has slipped, with 46 percent of those surveyed saying they approve of the job Patrick is doing, down four points from July, and 52 percent saying they disapprove of his job performance....
Though he has yet to air television ads, Patrick benefits from near-constant visibility thanks to his office.
Is that a benefit in the new political climate, Globe?
I wish you guys would get out of your bubble!
As Hurricane Earl began to threaten Massachusetts in recent days, the governor appeared frequently on television and radio to deliver updates and cautions to residents.
Related: Earl Epilogue
That isn't going to win him any votes.
Patrick enjoyed similar free air time after major flooding hit the state in March and then two months later, when Greater Boston’s water supply was jeopardized by a major pipe break.
That's not helping him, sorry. It just reminds people of state failures.
Baker’s new 30-second ad is an attempt by the former health insurance executive to tap into anti-incumbent sentiment in the electorate and to appeal to disenchanted Democrats....
Plenty of them out there.
Maybe the "debate" will help:
"Patrick, Baker take their shots; In 1st TV debate, clash on health, economy" by Noah Bierman and Michael Levenson, Globe Staff | September 8, 2010
Governor Deval Patrick and his Republican challenger, Charles D. Baker, sparred fiercely last night in the first televised debate of the race for governor, a lively and policy-rich clash that presented starkly different visions for state government and set the stage for a spirited fall campaign....
I'm tired of the fooleys.
Fighting for air time, both independent Timothy P. Cahill, the state treasurer, and Jill Stein, the Green-Rainbow candidate, tried to define themselves as outsiders, and to characterize the heated exchanges between Baker and Patrick as part of the “bickering’’ on Beacon Hill that voters resent....
Last night’s debate, moderated by WBZ political analyst Jon Keller, offered an introduction to the campaign’s critical two-month stretch, when many voters will begin paying closer attention. Baker, Cahill, and Patrick met in a radio debate in June.
Related: Globe's Governor's Race: Burying Charles Baker
And the trio was joined by Stein last month in a debate that focused on the environment.
Related: Globe's Governor's Race: Hot Wind on the Campaign Trail
Recent polls have shown a tight race between Patrick and Baker, with Cahill struggling to stay viable. A State House News Service poll released yesterday showed Patrick leading with 34 percent of those surveyed, Baker in second place with 28 percent, followed by Cahill with 18 percent, and Stein with 4 percent....
Cahill said the real culprit was the two-party system:
“People have lost faith in government. They’ve lost faith in Capitol Hill. They’ve lost faith in Beacon Hill,’’ he said. “They’ve lost faith in Democrats and Republicans, in my mind.’’
He is RIGHT ABOUT THAT!
That is WHAT HAPPENS when you LIE to the PEOPLE!!
Related: Globe's Governor's Race: State Treasurer Didn't Pay His Taxes
Yeah, our Treasurer is a corrupt PoS.
"Cahill often pushed to the sidelines" by Brian C. Mooney, Globe Staff | September 8, 2010
For a year, Republican challenger Charles D. Baker has struggled to get a clear shot at Democratic Governor Deval Patrick. In last night’s first televised debate, he moved toward that goal, as the other major rival, state Treasurer Timothy P. Cahill, was frequently squeezed out of the freewheeling exchange.
If the brisk, hourlong debate is an indicator of how the contest will play out in the eight-week run to the Nov. 2 election, Cahill may face a difficult task in keeping his independent candidacy viable unless he can find creative new ways to challenge the major party candidates, who lead him by a significant margin in every recent poll.
To be sure, Cahill and the fourth candidate, Jill Stein of the Green-Rainbow Party, scored some points during the debate sponsored by WBZ-TV, but most of the air time and the sharpest exchanges were between Patrick and Baker....
During the debate, Patrick seemed almost solicitous of Cahill, at one point offering “props’’ — slang for praise or credit — for the treasurer’s work in reforming and stabilizing the state’s long-troubled school building assistance program.
Almost as if this is a tag-team effort, huh?
I smell a vote-machine rigging in the works.
At other times, he appeared to be trying to protect his left flank in November by minimizing his differences with Stein, who accused his administration of engaging in “sweetheart’’ deals by offering $200 million in tax incentives to real estate developers.
With at least two more televised debates scheduled before Nov. 2, last night’s confrontation began to sharpen the differences in governing philosophies, policies, and track records of the major candidates....
If Baker, a former health insurance executive, was sharper and more consistent in his criticisms of Patrick than he has been in past encounters, Patrick was equally pointed in many rejoinders. Baker repeatedly lumped together Patrick and Cahill, who endorsed Patrick four years ago, as part of the problem on Beacon Hill. He offered himself as a clear alternative and a way to clean house in state government this fall.
The voters that watched had to have noticed that.
“You spent twice as much time in state government as I have,’’ Patrick snapped back, referring to Baker’s eight-year stint as a Cabinet secretary in two Republican administrations in the 1990s. The barb followed a contentious exchange about Baker’s role in devising the burdensome long-term financing scheme for some of the cost overruns at the Big Dig.
Independent polling data consistently indicate that Patrick has a small lead over Baker but is vulnerable because of poor job performance ratings by voters. He was on the defensive for much of the debate but stood by the choices and policies of his administration....
With 56 days in the campaign and at least two more televised debates, Cahill risks being marginalized further if he continues to be forced into the role of referee or scold while the candidates he trails dominate the conversation.
One wonders why he is staying in.
Also see:
