Sunday, December 25, 2011

Afghanistan After 2014

We will still be there, 'murka.

"Afghan parley to debate US role; Man with bomb reportedly killed at site of meeting" November 15, 2011|By Joshua Partlow, Washington Post

KABUL - The Karzai government will convene more than 2,000 Afghans from across the country this week to debate Afghanistan’s future relationship with the United States, a gathering that has drawn criticism from a skeptical political opposition, which describes the process as antiquated and illegitimate.

Afghan security forces shot a would-be bomber to death yesterday outside the site for the meeting of regional leaders and tribal powerbrokers, the government said.

The man was carrying a bomb in a box close to the entrance to the site where the meeting will be held, but was shot before he could detonate the explosive, Interior Ministry spokesman Sediq Sediqi said.

Two accomplices were arrested, the Afghan intelligence service said.

The traditional Afghan meeting, known as a loya jirga, will begin tomorrow under a tent in Kabul, with the intention of soliciting input on President Hamid Karzai’s efforts to strike a strategic partnership agreement with the United States.

American and Afghan officials have been negotiating that document for months but have yet to reach an agreement on the nature of US involvement in Afghanistan in the decade after 2014, when Afghan authorities are expected to take charge of security nationwide....  

Another ten years?

The Taliban has warned Afghans against participating in the gathering and has vowed to disrupt it. The Taliban website published a document Sunday that it claimed was part of the government’s security plan for the event and said such intelligence would make insurgent attacks “more lethal and precise.’’ Afghan authorities dismissed the document as a fake.

A peace conference in Kabul in summer 2010 was marred by a rocket attack, which prompted the firing of two Afghan cabinet ministers.  

Yes, if I remember correctly it was the CIA man that tipped 'em off. That's why he was fired.

The United States and Afghanistan have yet to agree on certain key issues about their proposed arrangement. Afghan officials have sought concrete commitments on the extent of US funding for Afghanistan’s army and police - they are almost completely reliant on the donations - as well as timelines on when they will be in charge of detentions and night raids.  

Related: AmeriKa's Afghan Security Tab

Afghans Learned From AmeriKa

Is it really worth it, American?

American officials have said that they can’t promise funding from future US administrations and that changes in American military posture should be flexible enough to take into account how the war with the Taliban is progressing.

For their part, US officials seek long-term access to bases for counterterrorism operations and for addressing other regional issues that might arise....  

And when you think about it, PEACE would REALLY COMPLICATE that!!

Karzai’s opponents see the jirga as a way for his administration to acquire a veneer of popular support for its agenda with Washington. Several people said the reliance on such an ancient custom undermines the modern democratic institutions such as parliament that they are struggling to empower.

Many Afghan parliament members are skeptical about Karzai’s motives for convening the gathering, and some complained that the government had not shared with parliament a draft of the meeting’s agenda. Dozens of lawmakers planned to boycott.

The consequence of such a meeting, said Abdullah Abdullah, an opposition leader and a former presidential candidate, is that “people will not trust their government.’’

I don't trust mine (or its mouthpiece media).

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"Karzai outlines conditions for strategic partnership with the US; Afghan leader calls for an end to night raids" November 17, 2011|By Joshua Partlow, Washington Post

KABUL - President Hamid Karzai set the conditions for his country’s strategic partnership with the United States yesterday, saying that Afghanistan would allow long-term US bases here as long as American troops stop conducting operations at night, searching homes, and detaining Afghans.

Karzai’s comments came at the opening of a large assembly, known as a loya jirga, that drew more than 2,000 delegates from across the country to discuss Afghanistan’s future relationship with the United States, as well as the prospect of negotiating with the Taliban....  

Yeah, what about those negotiations?

Karzai flew by helicopter from his palace to the jirga venue across town, a sign of the level of concern about possible Taliban attacks during the conference, which is scheduled to run for at least four days. Afghan security forces blocked several roads in Kabul and searched cars and pedestrians for explosives; government offices and many shops were closed.

The grand council has been dogged by controversy since it was announced. Karzai’s opponents suspect ulterior motives behind the conference....

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"Hundreds of Afghans protest long-term pact with US" Associated Press / November 20, 2011

KABUL, Afghanistan—More than 1,000 university students blocked a main highway in eastern Afghanistan on Sunday to protest any agreement that would allow U.S. troops to remain in the country after a planned transfer of authority in 2014.

An assembly of more than 2,000 tribal elders and dignitaries known as a loya jirga over the weekend endorsed negotiating a security pact with Washington, though they also backed a series of conditions proposed by Afghan President Hamid Karzai including the end of night raids by international troops and complete Afghan control over detainees.

On Sunday, the protesters in Jalalabad city denounced any agreement that would keep U.S. troops in the country, blocking the road to Kabul and shouting "Death to America. Death to Karzai."

Both the resolution and the protests reflect the tension in Afghanistan between a desire for real sovereignty and the need to bolster the relatively weak government against a still-strong Taliban insurgency.

The idea of the proposed security agreement is to keep a U.S. military presence in Afghanistan past 2014, when most international forces are to have left. Afghan and U.S. officials envision a force of several thousand U.S. troops, who would train Afghan forces and help with counterterrorism operations.... 

In other words, the whole 2014 thing is a LIE!!!!

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"Afghans to take over security in new areas" November 28, 2011|By Deb Riechmann, Associated Press

KABUL - Western officials and analysts have expressed pessimism about the ability of Karzai and his armed forces to assume command of their country. If they fail, the militant Taliban could stage a comeback.... 

Related: 

"The U.S. government was well aware of the Taliban's reactionary program, yet it chose to back their rise to power in the mid-1990s. The creation of the Taliban was "actively encouraged by the ISI and the CIA," according to Selig Harrison, an expert on U.S. relations with Asia. "The United States encouraged Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to support the Taliban, certainly right up to their advance on Kabul," adds respected journalist Ahmed Rashid. When the Taliban took power, State Department spokesperson Glyn Davies said that he saw "nothing objectionable" in the Taliban's plans to impose strict Islamic law, and Senator Hank Brown, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Near East and South Asia, welcomed the new regime: "The good part of what has happened is that one of the factions at last seems capable of developing a new government in Afghanistan." "The Taliban will probably develop like the Saudis. There will be Aramco [the consortium of oil companies that controlled Saudi oil], pipelines, an emir, no parliament and lots of Sharia law. We can live with that," said another U.S. diplomat in 1997."


Say what?

Security has improved in Marjah, where the police were once so corrupt that residents feared them more than the Taliban. Coalition operations to rout the Taliban in February 2010 yielded slower than expected returns, but a troop buildup later in the year pushed insurgents out of the main center of the district....  

Related: Taliban Spring Offensive Fizzles

Yeah, we "won" Marjah.

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"US night raids still point of contention for Afghans" December 04, 2011|By Rod Nordland, New York Times

KABUL - The government of Afghanistan has been talking about ending the US military’s controversial campaign of night raids for years, but now it sees an opportunity to do something about it.

In continuing negotiations for a long-term strategic agreement between the two countries, the Afghans have made a no-compromise stand on abolishing or greatly limiting night raids, in which commandos go after people suspected of being insurgents in private homes rather than in the field.

Both sides very much want the strategic agreement. It would give bases to the US military in Afghanistan and give the Afghans assurances of continued training and financing for their rapidly growing and ever more costly security forces.

Western diplomats say all such big issues are already settled, but night raids remain the thorn in the talks....

There are other sticking points as well, according to Western diplomats - how to handle detentions and how legally binding the agreement will be - but those have not attracted the same level of public interest or put the Americans on the defensive to such a degree.

The US military sees night raids as an essential and effective part of its counterinsurgency effort, with a very high reward-to-risk ratio. But Karzai and much of his government see the raids as politically disastrous, because they enrage the populace and often set entire communities against the US military presence.  

You would feel the same way, American, if someone was kicking down your door in the middle of the night while you were sleeping and then rounding up all the men between 12 and 60 and tossing them into jails to then be sorted and sifted through.

Over the past year, US commanders have greatly increased the frequency of the raids, with as many as 40 around the country being carried out on some nights, and an average of 10 a night, the military says. Even that is estimated to be twice the rate of 2010. Thousands of Taliban insurgents, hundreds of them midlevel commanders, have been captured or killed in the raids, officials have said.  

That's Obama's escalation, just like the drone strikes in Pakistan. 

And if we are killing and capturing so many how come we ain't winning big?

Delegates at the recent loya jirga meetings convened by Karzai overwhelmingly asked the president to make the ending of night raids a condition of signing a strategic agreement. Karzai has repeatedly demanded in speeches that night raids by foreign forces should end.

Most night raids are carried out by various kinds of Special Operations troops, and now the vast majority are “partnered’’ - conducted with Afghan troops along, the military says. A smaller number are considered “black ops,’’ covert missions conducted solely by specialized US units like the Army’s Delta Force, Navy SEALs commandos, or the CIA....  

Related: Boston Sunday Globe Censorship: Covering Up Cheney's Crimes

And the newspaper hides things very well.

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"Afghanistan seeks aid until at least 2024; Support is vital, frail government tells Bonn session" December 06, 2011|By Rod Nordland, New York Times

BONN - As dozens of nations and organizations met here yesterday to plan a transition beyond the withdrawal of US and other international forces from Afghanistan in 2014, the Afghan government had a new deadline in mind: 2024.

I'm already exhausted, and I'm not going to make it that long.

President Hamid Karzai and other Afghan officials called for political and military support for at least another decade - and for financial assistance until 2030. 

(Blog editor's jaw hit floor)

That would be nearly three decades after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 that led to the international intervention in Afghanistan.  

Uh-huh.  

Related: 

"the directive outlined essentially the same war plan that the White House, the CIA and the Pentagon put into action after the Sept. 11 attacks. The administration most likely was able to respond so quickly to the attacks because it simply had to pull the plans “off the shelf.”   

Also see: US planned war in Afghanistan long before September 11

What a cui bono coincidence, huh?

While Karzai and others celebrated the strides made in Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban in 2001 - 60 percent of Afghans now have mobile phones, he said, compared with none then - the conference highlighted the multiple challenges facing a fragile government undermined by corruption and threatened by a resilient insurgency....  

Mobile phones are now the measure of progress? Sigh.

The conference, in the works for months, fell considerably short of the objectives officials once had for it. It was viewed as a milestone that would cement progress in ending the war, both politically as well as militarily, and lay the groundwork for a self-sustaining Afghan government.

Instead, as the months have passed, the tempo of the war has shown little sign of winding down, despite an optimistic assessment from NATO that it had reversed the momentum of the Taliban insurgents.

Anything that comes out of NATO's mouth is a lie.

The efforts by the United States to negotiate a strategic agreement on relations with Afghanistan after 2014, like the one that now governs relations with Iraq, have also been complicated by nettlesome issues.
 
Not anymore; Iraq threw us out over it.

Those include night raids by special forces and the transfer of prisoners to the Afghans in spite of that country’s poor record on the treatment of detainees.

The two countries cannot even agree on what to call the actual agreement.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has promoted the creation of a New Silk Road to knit together the nations of Central and South Asia by easing trade barriers and creating economic opportunities among Afghanistan’s neighbors.
 
Only as long as we are the traffic cop.

And while the Bonn conference was intended to showcase the strategy, the most significant neighbor - Pakistan - refused to attend in protest of the US airstrikes that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers last month in what officials have said was a tragic accident.

I viewed that as an act of war. Think about it. A memo surfaces where the Pakistan civilian government asked the AmeriKan military for help to rein in the military, then this "mistake" happens?

President Obama and Clinton unsuccessfully pressed their Pakistani counterparts in telephone calls over the weekend to reconsider their boycott of the conference.

“The entire region has a stake in Afghanistan’s future and much to lose if the country again becomes a source of terrorism and instability,’’ Clinton told the delegates here, comprising dozens of foreign ministers, including Iran’s. “And that is why we could, of course, have benefited from Pakistan’s contribution to this conference.’’

Officially, the conference was hosted by Karzai’s government, though it took place far from Afghanistan. It was held in the former Parliament of West Germany. Across the Rhine, protesters erected shiny letters spelling out “End the War in Afghanistan.’’  

Bless 'em.

Clinton, echoing several other ministers, reiterated the Obama administration’s view that there was no military solution to the conflict.  

That has to be pissing off a lot of people.

Still, nascent efforts to encourage reconciliation with the Taliban - which also rely on Pakistani cooperation - appear moribund, especially since the assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani in September by a suicide bomber posing as a Taliban peace emissary. 

See: Rubbing Out Rabbani

Afghan officials said they had now completely ruled out any possibility of participation in their delegation by anyone on behalf of the Taliban.

Even though Obama and other NATO leaders created a timetable for withdrawal by 2014, few officials now expect any reconciliation talks to even begin by then. That has raised questions about security and the stability of Karzai’s government once international troops begin to withdraw....

Afghanistan’s military forces [are] estimated to cost $3.5 billion to $6 billion a year. By 2014, Afghanistan, the world’s 40th largest country, would have the world’s 12th largest military....  

And WHO DO YOU THINK will be PICKING UP THAT TAB, American taxpayers?

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And to hell with what the Afghans think about at night:

"NATO says it will continue Afghan night raids" December 19, 2011|Slobodan Lekic, Associated Press

NATO will continue to carry out nighttime kill-and-capture raids that target suspected insurgents despite repeated protests by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, the alliance said Monday....

The raids have become a flash point for anger over foreign meddling in Afghanistan and whether detention operations will be run by the Afghans or Americans. Karzai has demanded that foreign troops stop entering homes, saying Afghan citizens cannot feel secure if they think armed soldiers might burst into their houses in the middle of the night....  

Who wouldn't be angry, and who wouldn't feel safe?

Some analysts have questioned the military and political value of the operations, saying that when guerrilla commanders are taken out they are usually replaced by younger and more aggressive fighters less disposed to making any compromise with the government.  

Because you are PISSING PEOPLE OFF!!!

The issue also has held up the signing of a security agreement with the U.S. that could keep thousands of American troops here for years beyond the 2014 deadline for most international forces to leave....

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"Afghans to get bigger role in NATO’s night raids" December 20, 2011| By Associated Press

KABUL - NATO will carry out nighttime kill-and-capture raids against suspected insurgents with increased participation from Afghan special forces, the alliance said yesterday, after repeated protests by President Hamid Karzai.

The raids have become a flash point for anger over foreign meddling in Afghanistan and whether detention operations will be run by Afghans or Americans. Karzai has demanded that foreign troops stop entering homes, saying Afghan citizens cannot feel secure if they think armed soldiers might burst into their houses in the middle of the night.

During a National Security Council meeting late Sunday, the president emphasized the need to prevent civilian casualties, saying the casualties and the night raids on homes “have created serious problems,’’ according to a statement from his office.

Last month, Karzai convened a traditional assembly known as a loya jirga that stopped short of demanding a complete end to night raids. Instead, it asked that they be led and controlled by Afghan security forces.

A NATO spokesman, Brigadier General Carsten Jacobson said that Afghan special forces now take part in nearly all night raids, and their participation is constantly increasing.

The latest controversy over night raids was sparked by an operation Saturday on a home in the Ahmadaba district of Paktia province. The provincial governor condemned what he said was a raid on the home of the local counternarcotics chief. Three men were detained in the operation, and one woman inside the compound was killed.  

Gee, and I was told NATO and AmeriKa did a world of good for Afghan women. Not that one.

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At least we are leaving:

"US meets 1st target in Afghanistan troop pullout" December 23, 2011|Globe Staff, Associated Press

WASHINGTON - President Obama’s order to withdraw 10,000 troops from Afghanistan this year has been accomplished, a little more than a week before the year-end deadline, military officials said yesterday.

The drawdown is the first step in the plan to wind down the war, transition security to Afghan forces and end the combat role for international troops by the end of 2014.  

There is that crap lie being repeated again.

It also gives the Obama administration a second war-related accomplishment to tout this month - coming just a week after US officials marked the end of the war in Iraq and the last convoy of American soldiers rumbled out of that country into Kuwait. 

Related: Occupation Iraq: Over and Out

Why doesn't it feel like it is over to me?

Officials say there are now 91,000 US troops in Afghanistan - down from the peak of 101,000 in June.

In December 2009 Obama announced he was sending an additional 33,000 US troops to Afghanistan in a bid to beat back the escalating Taliban insurgency and change the course of the war. Six months ago, declaring that the “tide of war is receding,’’ Obama said he would withdraw 10,000 troops by the end of this year and 23,000 more by the end of next summer.

The decision was met with initial opposition from military leaders who thought the withdrawal was too much, too soon, particularly because it would pull troops out before the end of next year’s fighting season, which can last well into October and even November.

Last week, however, during a trip to Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta repeatedly told troops that the United States had reached a turning point in the war.  

Yeah, we are cutting our losses.

See: Faded Hopes For Americans in Afghanistan

And at one point he went so far as to say, “I really think that for all the sacrifices that you’re doing, the reality is that it is paying off and that we’re moving in the right direction… . We’re winning this very tough conflict here in Afghanistan.’’  

Yup.

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