Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Iran is Within Reach of a Nuclear Weapon

Then the invasion must begin now, right now!

"Iran providing access to active nuclear sites, UN watchdog says" by Philipp Jenne and David Rising Associated Press, March 9, 2020

VIENNA — Iran continues to provide international inspectors access to its active nuclear facilities, even after its announcement it was no longer bound by “any restrictions” of the landmark 2015 deal with world powers designed to prevent the country from producing a nuclear weapon, the head of the United Nations’ atomic watchdog agency said Monday.

Huh?

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also told board members in Vienna that since Tehran’s Jan. 5 announcement it appears that Iran hasn’t escalated its violations of the nuclear pact, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

“The agency has not observed any changes to Iran’s implementation of its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA in connection with this announcement, or in the level of cooperation by Iran in relation to agency verification and monitoring activities under the JCPOA,” Grossi said in prepared remarks.

In recent months, Iran has violated all main provisions of the pact, increasing its stockpiles of enriched uranium and heavy water past its limits, adding prohibited centrifuges, and enriching uranium past the purity allowed.

The purity level is still nowhere near bomb-level, and is being done only for medical purposes.

Last week, the agency said in a report to member nations that its inspectors had confirmed that Iran had nearly tripled its stockpile of enriched uranium since November in violation of the nuclear deal.

Why they still have to hold to a deal that has effectively been abrogated baffles me?

The stockpile of 1.1 tons of low-enriched uranium puts Iran within reach of the amount needed to produce a nuclear weapon, which it insists it doesn’t want to do.

BOOGA-BOOGA-BOO!

Prior to the nuclear deal, in 2013, Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was already more than 7.72 tons with higher enrichment, but it didn’t pursue a bomb.

The JCPOA, signed by Iran with the United States, Germany, France, Britain, China, and Russia, allows a stockpile of only 447 pounds of low-enriched uranium.

The JCPOA promised Iran economic incentives in return for the curbs on its nuclear program, but since President Trump pulled the United States out of the deal unilaterally in 2018 and imposed new sanctions, the country’s economy has been struggling.

Its violations of the pact are intended to pressure the other nations involved to increase economic incentives to make up for the American sanctions. So far, attempts by the other members of the JCPOA have fallen short of Iran’s demands.

In a separate report to members last week, the IAEA said it had identified three locations in Iran where the country possibly stored undeclared nuclear material or undertook nuclear-related activities without declaring it to international observers.

Like what Israel has done at Dimona?

The activities at those locations are believed to have dated from the early 2000s, before the nuclear deal, and Iran responded to the report by suggesting that the IAEA had no legal basis to inspect those sites. 

Is it possible that the UN is again being used as an intrusive spying tool as it was in Iraq during the 1990s?

In his speech to the board members, Grossi called on ‘‘Iran to cooperate immediately and fully with the agency, including by providing prompt access to the locations specified by the agency.’’

‘‘The agency has identified a number of questions related to possible undeclared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities at three locations that have not been declared by Iran,’’ Grossi said, according to his prepared remarks. “The agency sought access to two of the locations. Iran has not provided access to these locations and has not engaged in substantive discussions to clarify the agency’s questions.”

Grossi said later Monday that the denied access “is a serious matter” and “it’s not something I can put on the shelf.”

With Trump in trouble due to the coronavirus and sinking stock market, we may well be at war with Iran sooner than you think.

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Maybe this will help forestall war -- or hasten it:

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s chief rival said Monday that he has agreed with a smaller party to work together to form a new government following national elections last week. The announcement by Benny Gantz, leader of the Blue and White Party, dealt a new setback to Netanyahu as he struggles to hold on to power. In a statement, Gantz said that he had a good meeting with Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the small Yisrael Beitenu party. “We discussed questions of fundamental principle and determined that we will work together to assemble a government that will pull Israel out of the political deadlock and advert a fourth round of elections,” Gantz said. In last week’s election, Israel’s third in under a year, Netanyahu’s Likud Party emerged as the largest party, but with his smaller religious and nationalist allies, he secured only 58 seats in parliament, three short of the required 61-seat majority needed to form a new government. Netanyahu’s opponents, led by Gantz, control a majority of seats, but beyond their shared animosity toward Netanyahu, there are deep divisions between these parties, which include Lieberman’s secular, ultranationalist party and the Arab-led Joint List. Gantz’s announcement with Lieberman marked a step toward unifying those anti-Netanyahu forces, though it remains unclear whether they can reach a final agreement, much less a deal with Arab politicians. Lieberman has in the past branded Arab political leaders as terrorist sympathizers. ‘‘We’ll continue to discuss the details, formulate our common objectives, and move forward,” Gantz said. On the campaign trail, Gantz had ruled out a partnership with the Joint List, whose support is rooted in Israel’s Arab minority, but after a bruising campaign characterized by nasty personal attacks from Netanyahu and his surrogates, and fearing further deadlock if the country is forced into another election, Gantz has reversed course and left the door open. After his meeting with Lieberman, Gantz spoke to Ayman Odeh, leader of the Joint List, and other senior Arab politicians. “Gantz repeated his commitment to forming a government that will serve all of Israel’s citizens, Jews and Arabs alike,” his party said. Israel’s president, Reuven Rivlin, must decide by next week who to choose as the prime minister-designateThe president typically chooses the candidate he deems has the best chance of forming a governing coalition. That is usually the leader of the largest party, in this case Netanyahu, but if he believes Gantz has a better chance, he could give the former military chief the first crack at cobbling together a coalition. Rivlin’s office announced that he would hold one day of consultations with the eight parties elected to parliament next Sunday before he makes his decision on a prime minister designate. Each of the parties is to tell him who they support during the consultations. An endorsement from Lieberman, who had refrained from taking sides during the previous two elections, would increase Gantz’s chances of success. Lieberman is a former Netanyahu ally who has turned into a tough rival who appears bent on toppling his former mentor. Lieberman has expressed support for a new bill that would ban an indicted politician like Netanyahu from forming a new government after a national election. If the legislation passes, it could end Netanyahu’s career. Netanyahu has defiantly insisted he won last week’s election and accused his opponents of trying to “steal the elections” by aligning with Arab-led parties he claimed were hostile to the state. Last week, Netanyahu said the Joint List shouldn’t even be “part of the equation” of Israeli electoral politics....."

Netanyahu looks downright sick, doesn't he?

Also seeTwo US Special Operations troops are killed fighting Islamic State in Iraq

The New York Times tells me the Islamic State™ has spent recent months reconstituting its ranks in porous and ungoverned areas in Iraq and Syria.

Gantz better be careful or he will get the Sudanese treatment:

"Sudan prime minister survives ‘terror attack’ in capital" by Samy Magdy Associated Press, March 9, 2020

CAIRO — Sudan’s prime minister said Monday he survived a “terror attack” after an explosion and gunfire targeted his motorcade in the capital Khartoum.

Abdalla Hamdok, a longtime economist, tweeted he was “safe and in good shape’’ following the explosion. Sudanese state TV said Hamdok had been heading to his office when the attack took place.

Hamdok also tweeted a photo of himself smiling and seated at a large desk, while a TV behind him showed news coverage reporting he’d survived.

Hmmmmmm!

The attack highlighted the fragility of Sudan’s transition to civilian rule, almost a year after prodemocracy protesters forced the military to remove autocratic President Omar al-Bashir from power and replace him with a joint military-civilian government, which has promised to hold elections in three years.

However, Sudan’s generals remain the de facto rulers of the country and have shown little willingness to hand over power to civilians.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.

They didn't have to; the ap just implied it.

The country’s top prosecutor, Taj al-Ser Ali al-Hebr, said in a statement that prosecutors have started an investigation.

Whoop-eee!

A statement from the prime minister’s office said the attackers used explosives and firearms, and that a security officer was lightly wounded. The statement was read by Faisal Saleh, Sudan’s information minister and interim government spokesman. He said the convoy was hit near the Kober Bridge.

Footage posted online showed two white, Japanese-made SUVs typically used by Sudan’s top officials parked on a street, damaged with widows broken. Another vehicle was badly damaged in the blast. Several dozen people were seen at the site of the attack, chanting: “With our blood and soul, we redeem you, Hamdok.”

The protest movement that led the uprising against Bashir called the blast a “terrorist attack.”

Youth activists face arrest and intimidation and are still reeling from a ferocious crackdown by security forces last summer that broke up their sit-in outside the military’s headquarters and killed dozens.

After months of negotiations, the military and the prodemocracy movement reached a power-sharing deal in August, at which point Hamdok took office. The deal established a joint military-civilian, 11-member sovereign council to govern Sudan for the next three years.

Is it any surprise that the new government is pro-Israel?

Prominent activist Khalid Omar, secretary general of the Sudanese Congress Party, said the attempt on Hamdok’s life was a “new chapter in the conspiracy against the Sudanese revolution.”

They have a DNC, too?

UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said UN chief Antonio Guterres was “shocked and saddened” to learn of the attack and expressed ‘‘full solidarity’’ with the prime minister and people of Sudan.

Irfan Siddiq, the British ambassador in Khartoum, said the blast “is a deeply worrying event must be investigated fully.”

He tweeted that the Sudanese prime minister’s office had confirmed they “are all fine, with no injuries.”

Monday’s blast came less than two months after an armed revolt from within Sudan’s security forces shut down the capital’s airport and left at least two people dead. The tense stand-off between the armed forces and rogue intelligence officers paralyzed street life in several parts of Khartoum, along with another western city.....

First I've seen of it.

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Looks like it is going to be a long, hot summer in Sudan.

Related: 

"An Ethiopian Cabinet minister says that President Trump was provided with “inaccurate and inadequate” information about the dam the country is building on the Nile River. The remarks came amid a public disagreement with Egypt after Ethiopia did not attend the latest round of talks over the dam on Feb. 26 in Washington, D.C. Following the breakdown in the talks, which are being mediated by the United States and the World Bank, Trump phoned Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and “expressed hope that an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would be finalized soon,” according to a statement issued by the White House. This prompted speculation that Trump is favoring Egypt in the dispute. “There was an understanding that Ethiopia’s dam will block all the water flowing to other countries. President Trump said this could lead to a war,’’ said Sileshi Bekele, Ethiopia’s water and energy minister, on a popular Ethiopian late night show. ‘‘But we have told him the facts and presented the opportunities the dam will bring not only for Ethiopia but to other countries in the region.” Ethiopia says the dam is needed to help pull many of its people out of poverty, while Egypt warns that if the dam is filled too rapidly in the coming years, then it will not get its fair share of the river’s water during the filling process. The United States and the World Bank are mediating the negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, the countries through which the Nile River flows. Concern is growing in Ethiopia over the disagreement over the dam....."

Someone is going to have to derail it before elections are held because you can not find a flight out of Ethiopia these days.