Wednesday, August 12, 2009

What Type of Recession Is It?

My momma raised me to call it what it is: a DEPRESSION -- because the s***-shoveling MSM of AmeriKa sure as hell won't say it:

"as the recession continues"

"the recession is tapering off"

"a recession losing steam"

"economy has hit bottom and begun to turn around.... turning points"

"the economy turning a corner.... signs the economy is on the mend.... economy has started to grow again, or will soon"

Because the lying, agenda-pushing MSM will say so?


"collapse in commercial real estate is preventing Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke from declaring the economy and financial markets are healed.... glimmers of improvement.... the recession’s gotten worse in the last six months or so"


WTF, MSM? WTF?


"Recession could return.... a damaging “double-dip’’ recession.... risk next year of the second half a so-called double-dip - when a nascent recovery sputters out and turns into another recession"

You MAY NOTICE a SLIGHT DIFFERENCE in STYLE for me today and if you have been keeping up to speed here you know why.

Let's start you with this....


"More than half the TARP money Citi has deployed so far has been used to purchase bonds backed by mortgages in the secondary market. Banks like Citigroup do not lend the TARP money directly to borrowers. Instead, the banks keep the extra capital on their books, which allows them to borrow more money from funding sources. Then, they lend that borrowed money to others"

Wow, what a SHELL GAME! WHERE are those loans, anyway?


Talk about CREATING DEBT and LOOTING MIDDLEMEN!

Hey, it's become the AMERIKAN WAY!!
!!!

"Citigroup plans $6b in new lending" by Associated Press | August 12, 2009

NEW YORK - While big banks continue to face mounting losses across a wide range of credit, from mortgages to home equity loans to credit cards, many, including Citi, expect those loan losses to grow as the recession continues....

The company did return to profitability in the second quarter despite the mounting loan losses....

More than half the TARP money Citi has deployed so far has been used to purchase bonds backed by mortgages in the secondary market. Banks like Citigroup do not lend the TARP money directly to borrowers. Instead, the banks keep the extra capital on their books, which allows them to borrow more money from funding sources. Then, they lend that borrowed money to others.

--more--"

And meet the American Slave!!!!

"No hurry to start hiring.... unemployment may not return to healthy levels until 2013.... relying on cheaper temporary staffers to fill the gaps.... doesn’t translate into job creation.... Hiring should start again late next year.... cheaper alternatives to bringing in new full-time workers.... More significantly, businesses in this recession have managed to produce just as much with fewer workers.... squeezing more work out of the employees who are left"

You really are s***-eating slaves, aren't you, 'murka?

I'm glad I bailed on the whole thing.

Btw, I heard 2014:

"Economists and state budget observers warned several months ago that the state is in a multiyear cycle that will strain budgets until at least 2014."

WASHINGTON - Employers who have cut jobs over the past year are in no hurry to start hiring again just because the recession is tapering off.

From a North Carolina machine maker to an Oregon heating-and-cooling company, small business owners say they need to see several months of rising sales before they start adding staff.

Because labor is the biggest expense for most companies, that kind of caution is typical at the end of recessions. After the last one, in 2001, unemployment kept rising and didn’t peak until June 2003 - 19 months into the economic recovery.

This time around, some economists say unemployment may not return to healthy levels until 2013. Companies have been slashing workers’ hours, squeezing more work out of the employees who are left, and relying on cheaper temporary staffers to fill the gaps....

Employers wiped out 247,000 jobs in July, far fewer than any other month this year. The economy shrank in the second quarter at a much slower pace. But that doesn’t translate into job creation.... Hiring should start again late next year, said Sophia Koropeckyj, managing director for Moody’s Economy.com. It has a long way to go: The recession has eliminated 6.7 million jobs, and 14.5 million workers are unemployed and unable to find work.

When the economic crisis struck last fall, many employers steeled themselves for the worst, laying off workers, cutting hours, imposing unpaid furloughs, and cutting benefits. Some companies will find there are cheaper alternatives to bringing in new full-time workers. For example, they can increase the hours worked by the employees they already have. Right now, the average workweek is 33.1 hours.

More significantly, businesses in this recession have managed to produce just as much with fewer workers. From April through June, productivity surged by the largest amount in nearly six years, the government said yesterday. Once the economy starts adding jobs again, employers who depend on battered industries like housing will probably be among the holdouts. Dan Tyree, owner of Second Chance Auto Sales of St. Louis, doesn’t expect to hire anytime soon....

--more--"

Let's stay on those productivity numbers, 'ey, slave?

".... companies can pay their workers more, with those wage increases financed by rising output. However, in this recession, companies have been using their productivity gains from layoffs and other cost cuts not to hire again but to bolster their profits. The result: Many companies have been reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings despite falling sales....

Is it just me, or do you feel insulted?

.... millions of unemployed Americans probably will continue to face a dismal job market.... Ideally, businesses would use the current productivity gains to stabilize their own financial situations and as the economy rebounds, resume hiring to meet the rising demand.... Hopefully...."

Take a BIG BITE of HOPE, hungry Amurkn!!!! How's it taste?

""In fact, the main reason the unemployment rate declined last month was because hundreds of thousands of people, some discouraged by their failed job searches, left the labor force"

But employers are paying more -- or not(?).

To whom, THEMSELVES and BANKERS? WTF?

WASHINGTON - Productivity surged in the spring by the largest amount in almost six years while labor costs plunged at the fastest pace in nine years. The results point to a recession losing steam, but they do not bode well for the unemployed or those forced to work shorter weeks.

The Labor Department said....

Why believe their lies? I''ll wait for the revisions.

Both results were greater than economists expected. Productivity can help boost living standards because it means companies can pay their workers more, with those wage increases financed by rising output. However, in this recession, companies have been using their productivity gains from layoffs and other cost cuts not to hire again but to bolster their profits.

The result: Many companies have been reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings despite falling sales. Businesses producing more with fewer employees means millions of unemployed Americans probably will continue to face a dismal job market.

Some analysts also worry that companies’ aggressive cost-cutting could make it hard to mount a sustainable recovery. That’s because a lack of wage growth and a shortage of jobs could depress consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of economic output.

Ideally, businesses would use the current productivity gains to stabilize their own financial situations and as the economy rebounds, resume hiring to meet the rising demand, analysts said. “Hopefully, businesses will stop the layoffs and start hiring again so that consumers will have the ability to spend, but that is a tricky transition,’’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com....

In a second report, the Commerce Department said wholesale inventories declined for a record 10th consecutive month, falling 1.7 percent in June. That was nearly double the decrease economists had expected. In an encouraging sign, sales rose 0.4 percent for a second straight month. The first back-to-back increases in a year boosted hopes that businesses will begin to increase production to meet rising demand.

They said sales fell above or somwhere else, I can't keep track of the lies anymore. Thtat's why we are wrapping this up.

On Wall Street, stocks fell after the mixed economic reports and on comments from analyst Richard Bove of Rochdale Securities who wrote in a research note that bank earnings won’t improve in the second half of this year and that many companies will post losses....

Oh, the poor, lying, looting banks.

--more--"

WASHINGTON - With the economy turning a corner, Federal Reserve policy makers will consider whether some consumer lending programs intended to ease the recession and stem the financial crisis should be extended.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues opened a two-day meeting yesterday. They will sift through economic data and anecdotal information about how businesses and consumers are faring. So far, many barometers suggest the worst recession since World War II is ending and that the economy has started to grow again, or will soon.

One day is the worst since the Great Depression, the next.... tired of it.

Still, the Fed has warned that recoveries after financial crises tend to be slow.

And there are risks lurking....

unemployment....

the troubled commercial real market....

I'll touch upon that below.

a strain on banks holding such loans. The increasing risk is making lenders ever more stingy about new commercial real estate loans or refinancing existing ones....

Are you sick of the double talk?

There have been signs the economy is on the mend. Factory activity is improving. Home sales are starting to pick up, although much of the activity involves people snapping up bargain-priced foreclosed properties. Companies are cutting fewer workers. Some financial stresses are easing, but lending is not flowing normally and financial markets aren’t back to full throttle.

Many analysts believe the economy -which logged a mild contraction in the second quarter after a dizzying free-fall in the prior six months - is growing now. That makes it more likely the Fed will consider whether some rescue programs should continue....

Translation: More tax dough will be thrown at looters, with the American taxpayer falling deeper into a debt they can never repay.

One such program, aimed at driving down interest rates on mortgages and other consumer debt, involves buying US Treasuries. The central bank is on track to buy $300 billion worth of Treasury bonds by the fall; it has bought $253 billion so far.

“I think they’ll let it expire. It seems the mood turned against Treasury purchases in the last couple of months, and there’s been some skepticism whether it has worked in bringing rates down,’’ said Michael Feroli, at JPMorgan Economics. There’s also been concern the program makes the Fed look like it is printing money to pay for Uncle Sam’s exploding deficits.

Oh, program hasn't worked? Was it really intended to?

The Fed isn’t expected to launch new efforts or change an existing program to push down mortgage rates. In that venture, the Fed is on track to buy $1.25 trillion worth of securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

I'll be getting to them soon, too, as I do some house-cleaning here.

Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to stay low.

Until it goes hyper when the dollar tanks.

Think German circa 1920s, or Zimbabawe currently. Once the dollar is no longer the reserve currency, you are toast America. You got about a month.

--more--"

About those BUSINESS PROPERTIES:

FLASHBACK:

"Commercial real estate prices slide" by Reuters | August 4, 2009

NEW YORK - Despite a pickup in sales, commercial real estate prices posted a record drop in the second quarter, according to an index developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Real Estate....

“The big news this quarter is not just the magnitude of the drop, but the fact that transaction volume actually increased in the presence of this decline, the first volume increase since last summer,’’ David Geltner, director of research at the center, said in a statement yesterday.

The decline in nominal terms is far greater than the 27 percent drop in the previous major commercial property downturn in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Adjusting for inflation, both periods are now tied at a 41 percent decline.

The downturn in commercial real estate, as marked by the index, also is greater than the collapse in US housing prices, which are off 30 percent, the report said.

And we have YET to feel THIS IMPACT, America!!

Oh, is the MSM and government ever blowing smoke up your skirts again!

he 18.1 percent decline was the steepest in the index’s 25 year history, far greater than the former record - a 10.6 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Then WHAT is with these ECONOMIC LIARS I see in my paper every day?

--more--"

Today:

"pushing the central bank to.... restore the flow of credit....
positive signs elsewhere in the economy.... risk.... unexpected losses to financial firms that lead to another financial crisis.... pressure may be easing in other areas of the economy"

I'm not commenting much and I've changed my style a bit because I can't take this dog shit looting and lying anymore.


It's coming to an end, Globe. We will be growing distant soon.


"Commercial real estate woes weigh on Fed; Slump may keep interest rate low" by Scott Lanman, Bloomberg News | August 11, 2009

WASHINGTON - The collapse in commercial real estate is preventing Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke from declaring the economy and financial markets are healed.

Property values have fallen 35 percent since October 2007, according to Moody’s Investors Service. That’s making it tough for owners to refinance almost $165 billion of mortgages for skyscrapers, shopping malls, and hotels this year, pressuring companies such as Maguire Properties Inc., the largest office landlord in downtown Los Angeles, to put buildings up for sale.

The industry is likely to be high on the agenda when Bernanke and his colleagues sit down in Washington today at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on monetary policy. Lawmakers including Barney Frank and Carolyn Maloney are pushing the central bank to extend an aid program designed to restore the flow of credit.

Related: Barney Frank Benefited From State Debts

How the Bank Bailout Helped Americans

If nonresidential real estate remains in the doldrums, the Fed may be forced to leave emergency-lending programs in place and keep its benchmark interest rate close to zero for longer than some investors expect, given positive signs elsewhere in the economy.

Commercial property is “certainly going to be a significant drag’’ on growth, said Dean Maki, a former Fed researcher who is now chief US economist in New York at Barclays Capital Inc., the investment banking division of London-based Barclays PLC. “The bigger risk from it would be if it causes unexpected losses to financial firms that lead to another financial crisis.’’

The Fed is “paying very close attention,’’ Bernanke, 55, told the Senate Banking Committee on July 22, the second of two days of semiannual monetary-policy testimony before the House and Senate. “As the recession’s gotten worse in the last six months or so, we’re seeing increased vacancy, declining rents, falling prices, and so, more pressure on commercial real estate.’’

The pressure may be easing in other areas of the economy. Gross domestic product shrank at a better-than-forecast 1 percent annual pace in the second quarter after a 6.4 percent drop the prior three months, and residential housing starts rose unexpectedly by 3.6 percent in June as construction of single-family dwellings jumped by the most since 2004, according to data from the Commerce Department.

Employers cut fewer workers than anticipated last month as the jobless rate fell to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in June - the first decline since April 2008, based on Labor Department figures.

Didn't I cover that figure-fudging lie above?

Amid such glimmers of improvement, commercial real estate is a “particular danger zone,’’ said Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a July 28 speech in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho.

--more--"

So what about overseas, readers?

"Lending conditions are improving.... glimmers of a much-welcome recovery from the global credit crisis.... access to credit is improving.... relatively good news.... things aren’t really as bad as they had heard"

LONDON - After more than a year of economic gloom, Europeans are returning to the shops and venturing back into the housing market. Companies are slowing the pace at which they’ve been slashing jobs. Lending conditions are improving.

But central banks and some economists are cautioning against reading too much into all the recent data that suggest glimmers of a much-welcome recovery from the global credit crisis. They warn about the possibility of a damaging “double-dip’’ recession....

Still, stock markets have risen and many recession-weary consumers appear to be focusing on reports such as those out yesterday showing that access to credit is improving and the rate of job cutting is slowing in Britain, while business confidence rose in France....

If I have to read STILL, BUT, IF, MAY BE, COULD BE, YET, HOWEVER, one nore time in the paper I will issue a primal scream from the gully.

The relatively good news - compared to the economic woes reported almost daily in recent months - has prompted a rise in consumer confidence across Europe, resulting in an increase in retail sales and a tentative return by buyers to the housing market....

“For a couple months there was an excessive fear, compared to the reality of the economy, and now people are realizing that things aren’t really as bad as they had heard,’’ said Marc Touati, an economist at Paris-based brokerage Global Equities.

Touati and other analysts warned against celebrating any recovery, highlighting the risk next year of the second half a so-called double-dip - when a nascent recovery sputters out and turns into another recession....

--more--"

Nevertheless, we are ALL OPTIMISTIC with our MSM-supplied s***-ccolored glasses:

Consumer and business confidence continued their upward swing in July, adding to the evidence that the Massachusetts economy has hit bottom and begun to turn around, two groups reported yesterday.

I don't believe the liars. I just don't.

Related: Consumer confidence slips

It's over, Globe.

Associated Industries of Massachusetts, or AIM, said its business confidence index rose for the fourth time in the past five months, reaching its highest level since November. Mass Insight Corp., a Boston consulting firm, reported that its index of consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive quarter to its highest level since October 2007.

Confidence measures are considered by economists to be leading indicators that can suggest turning points in economic activity. Consumers are more likely to spend, and businesses are more likely to invest and hire, when they are feeling confident.

Despite improving confidence, the two surveys suggest a long and difficult recovery, particularly in the labor market....

a “jobless recovery’’ with weak hiring....

Then it is NOT a RECOVERY, is it?

Massachusetts consumers were gloomy about the present, with the measure of current conditions dropping to 16 from 34 in April, but optimistic about the future....

Oh, yeah, did I not mention the INSULTS as adding to my displeasure at New England's largest liar?

“Hopefully, state residents will be proven correct in their optimism about the future,’’ said Mass Insight president William H. Guenther, “but that optimism is balanced by a present in which jobs remain scarce and people are hurting.’’

--more--"