Friday, April 10, 2020

The Models of Inconsistency

I will let the Washington ComPost dissemble them for you:

"The lesson of revised death toll estimates shouldn’t be that distancing was an overreaction" by Philip Bump Washington Post, April 9, 2020

WASHINGTON — Anthony Fauci saw this moment coming. Speaking to CBS’s Margaret Brennan on March 15, Fauci, a leading member of the White House’s coronavirus task force, pointed out that the measures being implemented to limit the spread of the coronavirus in the United States would, if effective, seem as though they were more than what was necessary. Ideally, people would not get sick — and therefore might not think they needed to maintain distance from other people at all.

‘‘I want people to assume that I’m over- or that we are overreacting,’’ Fauci said, ‘‘because if it looks like you’re overreacting, you’re probably doing the right thing.’’

So says a Deep $tate bureaucrat who has been on the government dole since the 1980s.

With the number of infections appearing to level off in New York, the state at the US epicenter of the pandemic, there has been an increasing focus on precisely that question: Did we go too far?

On Wednesday, those posing the query got new ammunition when a leading model of the possible effects of the pandemic scaled back its estimate of the number of deaths that might be caused by COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. Last week, the model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicted more than 90,000 deaths by August. The new estimate has the figure closer to 60,000.

The estimated death toll is collapsing quicker than a WTC tower!

Brian Kilmeade, a host on Fox News’s morning show ‘‘Fox & Friends,’’ used that revision to argue that the distancing measures currently in effect are unnecessary. He compared the new data from the IHME to the upper level of predicted deaths offered by the White House last week.

‘‘The fact is when somebody says, ‘200,000 people die — oops, I mean 60,000, and it’s not going to be right away, it’s going to be in August.’ That’s how good we are doing — and how off the models were,’’ Kilmeade said. ‘‘You have to wonder, as much as social distancing’s working, I wonder if the economists are going to get in that room and say, we have to stand up this economy in some way before we are not going to be able to stand when this is all said and done.’’

‘‘Right, but Brian, it’s still 60,000 people, which is a staggering number,’’ cohost Steve Doocy interjected.

‘‘It’s a high number, but how many people are going to die as the country goes flat on its back for three months?’’ Kilmeade replied. ‘‘We’re not going to look like the same country. So the economists have to have a say in this.’’

It's a high number, and it is just a guess based on faulty computer models. That is what has been driving the shutdown. Simulated death tolls!

The White House apparently agrees. The Washington Post reported Wednesday that the administration would form a second coronavirus task force focused on the economy.

Kilmeade’s point is not an uncommon one, and one that can be distilled into two questions. The first is why the model was off the mark. The second is whether the distancing measures are still needed.

It’s worth noting at the outset that Fauci had repeatedly urged caution about the models.

‘‘Models are as good as the assumptions you put into them,’’ he said last week, ‘‘and as we get more data, then you put it in and that might change.’’

Do you know what happens when you ASSUME things?

You make an ASS of U and ME!

Now watch the Washington ComPost run cover for Fauci:

That’s what happened with the IHME model. While it always incorporated estimates of the effects of social distancing measures, the original estimates used the only available data on those distancing efforts, the response from distancing as seen in Wuhan — the Chinese city where the virus was first reported and where distancing was first put into effect.

Why web version clipped this I don't know:

Earlier this week, the model was revised to include new distancing data from a number of other cities in Spain and Italy after those locations reached benchmarks the modelers were tracking.

It further refined its measures of social distancing to approximate the different effects of different types of distancing. That pushed the estimated toll down significantly.

Notice, too, that the new estimate of the number of virus deaths falls within the uncertainty window expressed in the early April estimate. The lower bound of possible deaths offered then was about 40,000 deaths -- meaning that the current estimate is still within the original range of estimates.

I don't know how they can contort their report into a pretzel like that, but wow!

The models were wrong, but they got it right!

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Right below that was this:

"Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious disease expert, says don’t assume the coronavirus will fade during warm weather. Fauci told ABC’s “Good Morning America” there’s precedent with other infections like influenza that “when the virus gets warmer that the virus goes down in its ability to replicate, to spread,” but Fauci added “having said that, one should not assume that we are going to be rescued by a change in the weather. You must assume that the virus will continue to do its thing. If we get some help from the weather, so be it, fine, but I don’t think we need to assume that.” He was asked about a New York Times story that research indicates the coronavirus that began circulating in New York in mid-February came mainly from Europe, not Asia. “I think that’s probably correct,” Fauci said. He notes that “Europe became the epicenter pretty quickly after China really exploded with their cases.”

He said one thing to CBS then another thing to ABC!

What a piece of work is he!

Related:

"As it has for several days, the story of the coronavirus in New York had two strands Thursday: encouraging progress and devastating loss, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo said, but the number of people dying of the virus continues to grow. The state recorded 799 deaths from Wednesday to Thursday, another one-day high. For the second straight day, Cuomo compared the toll of the virus to the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, calling the virus a “silent explosion that ripples through society with the same randomness, the same evil that we saw on 9/11.” As he has done repeatedly in recent days, Cuomo stressed that social distancing and other restrictions would continue to be enforced, because they were necessary to maintain the progress the state has made. He also cautioned that New York might only be in the first wave of the pandemic. The state would probably have enough hospital beds and ventilators to treat virus patients if current trends hold, he said, but, “Everybody is assuming, well, once we get through this, we’re done,” Cuomo said. “I wouldn’t be so quick to assume that. This virus has been ahead of us from day one. The governor again emphasized that New York’s Black and Hispanic communities were being hit the hardest by the virus, and he said that additional testing sites would be opened in predominantly Black and Latino neighborhoods....."

He needs some sleep because he is losing it!

"As New York City deals with a mounting coronavirus death toll and dwindling morgue space, the city has shortened the amount of time it will hold unclaimed remains before they are buried in the city’s public cemetery. Under the new policy, the medical examiner’s office will keep bodies in storage for just 14 days before they’re buried in the city’s potter’s field on Hart Island. Normally, about 25 bodies a week are interred on the island, mostly for people whose families can’t afford a funeral, or who go unclaimed by relatives. In recent days, though, burial operations have increased from one day a week to five days a week, with around 24 burials each day, said Department of Correction spokesman Jason Kersten. Aerial images taken Thursday by the Associated Press captured workers digging graves on the island, a one-mile, limited-access strip off the Bronx that’s the final resting place for more than a million mostly indigent New Yorkers. About 40 caskets were lined up for burial on the island on Thursday, and two fresh trenches have been dug in recent days. Interments are typically done by inmates from the city’s Rikers Island jail complex, but during the coronavirus pandemic the job has been taken over by contractors."

Which company is digging the mass graves?

My page A2 National/World lead:

Senators block new virus aid

The Associated Press is reporting that Democrats refused to rubber stamp Trump’s proposal (when Republicans didn't rubber stamp what Obama wanted the pre$$ called them obstructionist), while Mitch McConnell says “nobody thinks this will be the Senate’s last word on COVID-19,’’ even as Congress is all but shuttered — and unlikely to return April 20, as planned.

So they impeach, but fail to oversee:

"Trump forges ahead with broader agenda as coronavirus upends the country" by Toluse Olorunnipa Washington Post, April 9, 2020

WASHINGTON — In recent days, as the coronavirus pandemic has ravaged the country, President Trump’s administration has ousted two key inspectors general, moved to weaken federal gas mileage standards, nominated a young conservative for a powerful appeals court, and sent scores of migrants back across the southern border without a customary hearing.

It’s a whirlwind of activity taking place away from the spotlight that highlights how the twin crises of a viral outbreak and an economic slowdown have not slowed Trump’s aggressive push to advance his broader agenda in the months before he faces voters.

In some cases, Trump is continuing to do what he had been doing. In others, he is using the broad powers granted to the executive branch amid a national crisis to pursue policy goals he has long sought and in some cases struggled to achieve.

Given Trump’s longstanding high metabolism for controversy and scandal, he is uniquely positioned to take advantage of a deadly pandemic in ways that previous presidents would never have considered, said Max Skidmore, a political science professor at the University of MissouriKansas City and the author of a book on presidential responses to pandemics.

‘‘Normally when a crisis occurs — whether it’s a military attack or something else on this scale — it absorbs all the energy and demands that all energy available be directed to the solution of that particular problem,’’ he said. ‘‘It’s very rare for a president to use that in such a way to pursue other items on the agenda.’’

Bulls**t!

Perhaps following the mantra of former Obama White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel to ‘‘never allow a crisis to go to waste,’’ the Trump administration has moved with speed to advance the president’s goals as a pandemic upends much of the country and renders traditional campaigning impossible.

OMG!

As the candidates implore court to loosen signature requirements to get on the ballot, they will not find any justice in the age of Covid-19.

Trump’s extracurricular activities are drawing growing criticism.....

From who?

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Related:

Trump to open more wildlife refuge land to hunting, fishing

He wants you to go outside.

"President Trump has always been a president of contradictions: a New York mogul fond of ostentatious shows of wealth who appeals to rural working-class voters. A populist whose main recreation is golfing at one of his exclusive clubs. A self-avowed deal-maker who ends up mired in gridlock. A publicity hound who cannot get enough of the news media even as he denounces it as the “enemy of the people.” The president’s words matter because, as he himself likes to note, the ratings for his briefings have been high, and for many Americans, they are the main source of their information about the pandemic......"

I trust him more than I do the New York Times.

"The Trump administration is pushing to reopen much of the country next month, raising concerns among medical experts and economists of a possible COVID-19 resurgence if Americans return to their normal lives before the virus is truly stamped out. Behind closed doors, President Trump — concerned with the sagging economy — has sought a strategy for resuming business activity by May 1, according to people familiar with the discussions. In phone calls with outside advisers, Trump has even floated trying to reopen much of the country before the end of this month, the people said. Trump regularly looks at unemployment and stock market numbers, complaining that they are hurting his presidency and reelection prospects, the people said. Health experts say ending the shutdown prematurely would be disastrous because the restrictions have barely had time to work, and because US leaders have not built up the capacity for alternatives to stay-at-home orders — such as the mass testing, large-scale contact tracing and targeted quarantines that have been used in other countries. Even one of the most optimistic models, which has been used by the White House and governors, predicts a death toll of 60,400, but only if current drastic restrictions are kept in place until the end of May....."

People said, according to the Washington Post, and the battle against coronavirus is a civil war that has exposed regional and cultural divides that dangerously undermine the unified national response we need to achieve anything close to victory (that should make some very happy).

Let Freedom Ring!

"Church bells at Catholic parishes in the Archdiocese of Boston will ring in unison at noon on Easter Sunday in a gesture of solidarity and celebration. Other denominations are also planning to join in, the archdiocese said in a statement. The archdiocese also asked those parishes that can participate to stream their bell-ringing live on on their digital platforms, using the hashtag #AnEasterPeople. The idea of ringing the bells came from several parishioners from different parts of the archdiocese and was received by Cardinal Sean P. O’Malley “as an encouraging expression of hope during these challenging times,” the archdiocese said. Among the churches ringing the bells will be the Cathedral of the Holy Cross, the mother church of the archdiocese. “In ordinary times, church bells are a call for people to gather in prayer. This year, in the midst of the pandemic, the bells remind us that we are a community of people who need to take care of each other in the power and strength of spiritual connection and the love of the Resurrected Christ,” O’Malley said in the statement. The archdiocese said it was also “an opportunity to recognize and pray for those on the front lines of this crisis including among others nurses, doctors, EMT’s, police, fire, other medical professionals and other essential workers such as grocery and pharmacy employees.” O’Malley is participating in services Thursday through Sunday that will be available on CatholicTV.org. On Easter Sunday, the Mass will be available on CatholicTV.org as well as WHDH-TV and WLVI-TV. The public is not allowed at the services. Only a couple of priests, servers, and a couple of singers and an organist join O’Malley at the services, and all follow the city, state and federal health directives on social distancing, said archdiocese spokesman Terrence Donilon."

Related:

"Two men were arrested after a gunshot was fired on the grounds of a monastery in Brookline Tuesday night, police said. At 11:40 p.m.,officers responded to a report of a single gunshot outside the Holy Transfiguration Monastery at 278 Warren St.,Brookline Police Lieutenant Jennifer Paster said. When officers arrived, they saw a small group outside the monastery, police said. Stephen Foster, 38, of Westwood, and Constantinos Giannarikas 34, of Walpole were arrested on scene, according to police. “The incident appears to be the result of a dispute between two parties that were known to each other, neither of whom reside at the monastery,” Paster said. No injuries were reported."

Sort of spoiled the mood, didn't they?

"As the Easter holiday approaches, world leaders and health officials are fervently warning that hard-won gains in the fight against the coronavirus must not be jeopardized by relaxing social distancing....."

That comes from Merkel, and she is joined by the leaders of New Zealand, Lithuania, Portugal, Greece, the Swiss, Iran, and Indonesia.

"Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain was moved out of intensive care on Thursday, a ray of hope for a country that faces several more weeks under lockdown as its death toll from the coronavirus approached 8,000.  The continent has suffered more than 65 percent of worldwide deaths, and Spain, Italy, France, and Germany trail only the United States in infections. Spain is poised to extend a nationwide lockdown, and Italy is moving toward doing the same as Europe’s rising infection rate complicates plans to begin reversing stringent restrictions on public life....."

The Spanish state of emergency's been extended through April 25, and Italy's lockdown will last until at least 27th.

Mask-wearing, common in Asia, spreads in the West

The taboo is falling fastest in France.

Thousands in dorms pose new challenge to Singapore

Going to deport them to Australia:

Ship at center of outbreak raided by Australian police

They were searching for supplies:

In scramble for supplies, rich countries push poor aside

The New York Times says a “war going on behind the scenes.”

Speaking of wars:

"A cease-fire proposed by the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen went into effect Thursday, potentially paving the way for peace talks to end the more than five-year-old conflict. Houthi rebels, who control northern Yemen and the capital, Sanaa, dismissed the offer as a ploy by the kingdom to boost its international standing while a spokesman for the rebels accused the coalition of several attacks on Thursday. “This announcement does not express a genuine intention to achieve peace,” said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a Houthi official. “The Saudis are still employing their air, land, and naval forces to tighten the siege on Yemen. . . . This is an announcement only to restore [their positions], to close ranks.” Saudi officials said the proposal is a response to United Nations calls to halt hostilities amid the world pandemic. Saudi military spokesman Colonel Turki al-Malki said the truce could be extended to allow warring parties to discuss “a comprehensive political solution in Yemen.” He said that the coalition envisions three-way peace talks in which the Houthis, the UN-backed government of Yemeni President Abed Rabo Mansour Hadi, and a military team from the coalition would sit down to negotiate a durable settlement."

Related:

"More than six weeks after Saudi Arabia reported its first case, the coronavirus is striking terror into the heart of the kingdom’s royal family. As many as 150 royals in the kingdom are now believed to have contracted the virus, including members of its lesser branches, according to a person close to the family. King Salman, 84, has secluded himself for his safety in an island palace near the city of Jiddah on the Red Sea, while Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, his son and the 34-year-old de facto ruler, has retreated with many of his ministers to the remote site on the same coast where he has promised to build a futuristic city known as Neom. The sickness in the family may also shed new light on the motivation behind the speed and scale of the kingdom’s response to the pandemic. Its rulers began restricting travel to Saudi Arabia and shut down pilgrimages to the Muslim holy sites of Mecca and Medina even before the kingdom had reported its first case, on March 2. Authorities have now cut off all air and land travel into or out of its borders and between internal provinces. They have placed all of its biggest cities under a 24-hour lockdown, and they have indicated they are likely to cancel the annual hajj pilgrimage this summer that draws 2.5 million Muslims to Mecca and has taken place every year since 1798, when Napoleon invaded Egypt. State media reported Wednesday that the king suspended final rulings and judicial orders on visitation rights of children of separated parents, and ordered a number of prisoners released. Saudi officials also announced the kingdom and its allies would observe a unilateral cease-fire in the war in Yemen starting at noon Thursday, a move motivated by fears of the virus spreading and that could pave the way for ending the brutal five-year-old conflict (New York Times)."

They are going to abort the regime change.

"Saudi, Russia historic production deal turns focus on G-20" by Javier Blas, Salma El Wardany and Grant Smith Bloomberg News, nApril 9, 2020

Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to record oil production cuts in an effort to revive the market from a debilitating coronavirus-induced slump.

Attention now turns to the Group of 20 energy ministers meeting on Friday. Contributions from major producers including the United States and Canada could boost efforts to revive prices after the OPEC+ historic agreement failed to push crude higher on Thursday.

Oil’s spectacular price crash this year has threatened the stability of oil-dependent nations, forced major companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. to rein in spending, and risked the very existence of small independents. OPEC and its allies have been put under intense pressure by President Trump and American lawmakers, who fear thousands of job losses in the US shale patch.

OPEC+, meeting by video conference, tentatively agreed to cut production by about 10 million barrels a day in May and June, delegates said. “Both Saudi and Russia were going to have to cut anyway, and these cuts allow them to win political points too,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd.....

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Related:

"The next step for some US refineries that have already cut way back may be a full stop. Marathon Petroleum Corp. will idle its Gallup, N.M., refinery and related assets April 15, the company said. It’s the first US facility to shut as the coronavirus pandemic empties skies of passenger planes and the roads of cars. It’s not likely to be the last."

Remember that check that is due in September?

"Coronavirus Is Threatening One of Government’s Steadiest Services; The Postal Service needs billions, the agency told Congress, and Democrats want to provide a bailout; The Trump administration may not agree" by Nicholas Fandos and Jim Tankersley New York Times, April 9, 2020

Ravaged by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the United States Postal Service appealed to lawmakers on Thursday for an $89 billion lifeline, telling them that it could run out of cash by the end of September if Congress fails to act, but as Washington begins to debate the next round of government relief to prop up the virus-plagued economy, a Postal Service bailout has already emerged as a political sticking point, with Democrats pressing to deliver one and President Trump, a persistent critic of the agency, opposed. The debate appears to be playing out along the same fault lines that have divided the two sides for years as they have quibbled over how to position the cash-strapped agency — one of the government’s oldest and most reliable entities — for an increasingly digital future.

It's not officially a government agency, they are independent; however, the USPS is one of the few things, if not the only thing, that this government has ever done right.

The coronavirus crisis has rapidly exacerbated those woes, officials told lawmakers on Thursday. Mail volume is down by nearly a third compared with the same time last year and dropping quickly, as businesses drastically cut back on solicitations, advertisements and all kinds of letters that make up the bulk of the mail service’s bottom line.

Megan J. Brennan, the postmaster general, told lawmakers on the House Oversight and Reform Committee that the agency would need $25 billion in federal grants to cover lost revenue from the pandemic, plus an additional $25 billion to update aging infrastructure, [and] another $14 billion is needed to pay off long-term debt related to a retirement benefits program, along with $25 billion in unrestricted borrowing authority, she said, according to officials familiar with the information she shared privately.

Even with an increase in online shopping and package delivery to Americans cooped up at home, the agency could see a 50 percent reduction in total mail volume by the end of June, compared with the same period last year, Ms. Brennan told the lawmakers. She said the projected shortfall this fall could throw regular mail delivery into doubt.

My print copy said trapped at home, and that would be part of America that will be sorely missed. 

No mailmen?!

The Postal Service is projecting a $13 billion revenue shortfall this fiscal year because of the pandemic and another $54 billion in losses over 10 years. Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, squashed a bipartisan attempt to send the agency emergency funds last month.

Some lawmakers, postal union representatives and others who rely on the service now fear that the Trump administration is trying to use the current crisis to achieve conservatives’ longstanding goal of nudging the mail service toward privatization — either by setting highly prescriptive loan terms or by essentially forcing it into bankruptcy. That would aid commercial competitors like FedEx and UPS.....

YUP! 

That's what they are doing with the outrageous funding mandates Congre$$ imposed on them, and Trump is just doing what Rahm advised, right?

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As if they didn't have enough trouble, now employees are infected with COVID-19.


You can see where all this leading. Post offices will be closed, and the mail trucks will simply pick up outgoing mail from your door or porch while delivering the mail. No reason for you to interact with them at all, and it removes another reason for leaving the house.

That bailout check arrive yet?

"New Fed Programs Could Pump $2.3 Trillion Into the Economy" by Jeanna Smialek New York Times,April 9, 2020, 7:21 p.m.

The Federal Reserve said it could pump $2.3 trillion into the economy through new and expanded programs it announced on Thursday, ramping up its efforts to help companies and state and local governments suffering financial damage from the coronavirus.

The central bank rolled out its relief package just as the government announced that 6.6 million more Americans were newly jobless, laying bare the severe damage to the economy as quarantines keep workers at home and grind entire sectors to a standstill. About 16 million people have filed for unemployment in the past three weeks.

Wall Street closed out its best week in 45 years on Thursday after the announcement. It’s the latest unprecedented move by the Fed, which has rushed to ensure cash gets to parts of the economy that need it after markets got snarled by a rush of investors pulling cash out of the system.

The stock market is not the economy, and that distinction has become even more clear this week.

$ince when is the stock market not the economy?

The Fed announced that it would use Treasury Department funds recently authorized by Congress to buy municipal bonds and expand corporate bond-buying programs to include some riskier debt. The Fed also rolled out a highly anticipated lending program that targets midsize companies, including those not eligible under a Small Business Administration loan program.

Were they ready for it?

The measures push the Fed far beyond anything it attempted in the 2008 financial crisis, and expand its already significant efforts to cushion the economy and calm markets, which have included money market interventions and an unlimited bond-buying campaign.

“We are deploying these lending powers to an unprecedented extent, enabled in large part by the financial backing from Congress and the Treasury,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chairman, said in a speech after the announcement Thursday. He pledged to continue using those powers “forcefully, proactively, and aggressively until we are confident that we are solidly on the road to recovery.”

The Fed and Congress have been racing to support the US economy as coronavirus shutters businesses, tanks consumer confidence, and leaves millions of workers without a paycheck.

While some of their newly-announced programs urge or incentivize companies to maintain their payroll, they are just getting up and running and coming too late for many workers. The Fed’s goal is to make sure the ongoing hit to the labor market and the broader economy does not prove long-lived. The emergency programs are intended to get credit flowing to companies and governments that might struggle to access funding as uncertainty roils markets, helping them to make it through. Congress gave the Treasury Department $454 billion to back up the Fed’s efforts, which need to be insured against losses, giving officials room to scale them up dramatically.

Credit isn't going to help!

The Fed’s moves on Thursday make use of that funding to push the central bank’s emergency lending powers into uncharted territory. Officials had avoided buying municipal debt and lower-rated company debt, out of concern about credit risk and to avoid picking winners and losers, but amid market disruptions, calls for Fed action in both areas have been building, and the Fed provided details on another previously-untried program that could give relief to major US employers left out of other government initiatives. About 19,000 companies have between 500 and 10,000 employees, and they employ 30.3 million workers, Census Bureau data show.

Like the pot companies?

Companies that employ up to 10,000 workers, or which have less than $2.5 billion in revenues, will be able to access four-year loans through the new program. Banks will originate the loans and retain a 5 percent share, but will sell the remainder — in total, up to $600 billion — to the Fed. The Treasury will provide $75 billion in backup to protect the central bank.

It looks like NATIONALIZATION!

While companies seeking the loans “must commit to make reasonable efforts to maintain payroll and retain workers,” according to the announcement, no strict standards define what that means or how it will be enforced, Fed officials indicated during a briefing with reporters, and though the borrowers must follow restrictions on compensation, stock repurchase, and dividend restrictions set out in the recently passed congressional package, the Fed stopped short of applying limits on offshoring suggested in the law.

Oh, these programs are nothing but corporate bonanzas!

Principal and interest on those loans can be deferred for one year, but the borrowing is not forgivable, unlike the small business loans Congress authorized. The program design is still open to comment. The Fed gave no guidance on when it, or other new programs announced, would be up and running.

How long can you wait?

Fed relief for states and cities had also been highly anticipated because Congress provided only limited help to those governments in its recent legislation. The markets that local governments use to issue bonds and finance themselves have been in turmoil, which threatened to make it difficult for officials to fund operations just as sales tax and other revenues dried up and the need for cash skyrocketed.

Yeah, the states are going to be in terrible $hape come fall!

The new program will buy up to $500 billion of short term notes — with durations up to two years — straight from US states, counties with at least 2 million residents, and cities with a population of at least 1 million residents, according to the Fed release.

“Eligible state-level issuers may use the proceeds to support additional counties and cities,” the Fed said, while foreshadowing that there may be more to come. The central bank “will evaluate whether additional measures are needed to support the flow of credit and liquidity to state and local governments.”

The Treasury will also ramp up its insurance on the Fed’s two corporate bond-buying programs and its so-called Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF. That’s in part because they are adding riskier debt: Some companies that were downgraded to below investment grade after March 22, for instance, will now be eligible for Fed help. So will some high-yield exchange-traded funds, which are built on bonds but trade like stock.

TALF? 

Why not TARP?

Companies that benefit from the programs will not be forced to restrict share buybacks or dividends, Fed officials told reporters. Congress mandated in its legislation that businesses receiving “direct loans” using the new funding must do both, but the Fed does not see the corporate bond-buying as falling under that umbrella.....

They just do what they want!

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